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Author (up) Max Wyss pdf  isbn
  Title The kashmir M7.6 shock of 8 october 2005 calibrates estimates of losses in future himalayan earthquakes Type Conference Article
  Year 2006 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2006  
  Volume Issue Pages 397-401  
  Keywords Information systems; Correction factors; Energy release; Kashmir earthquake; Large earthquakes; Loss estimates; Moment tensor solutions; Scenario earthquakes; Seismic risk; Earthquakes  
  Abstract In an article published in March 2005, we estimated the number of fatalities to be expected in future large earthquakes in the Himalaya (Wyss, 2005). For the scenario called Kashmir, we estimated that 67,000 to 137,000 fatalities should be expected. The M7.6 Kashmir earthquake of 8 October 2005 caused approximately 85,000 fatalities. Thus, one may argue that we forecast this disaster well. However, we assumed M8.1, a depth of 25 km and an epicenter located about 200 km to the SE from the October epicenter. Using the moment tensor solution for the October earthquake with a depth of 12 km for the energy release, we estimate the number of fatalities between 29,000 and 56,000. Thus, a factor of 2 must be applied to obtain the observed number, and the depth of the energy release in the scenario earthquakes should be placed at 12 km, which results in on over-All correction factor of 2.4. Therefore, we correct our estimates for numbers of fatalities in future Himalayan earthquake to range from 100,000 to 500,000, as specified for the locations given in Table 2.  
  Address World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, 2 rue de Jargonnant, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Newark, NJ Editor B. Van de Walle, M. Turoff  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9090206019; 9789090206011 Medium  
  Track REAL-TIME ALERTS FOR EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMI Expedition Conference 3rd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1109  
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