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Author
Kevin D. Henry
;
Tim G. Frazier
Title
Scenario-Based Modeling of Community Evacuation Vulnerability
Type
Conference Article
Year
2015
Publication
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Abbreviated Journal
ISCRAM 2015
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Disaster Management
;
evacuation modeling
;
natural hazards
;
vulnerability assessment
Abstract
Evacuation models can be used to determine evacuation capacity, by estimating the time required for evacuating populations to leave areas exposed to a hazard. Disaster management practices and evacuation modeling are generally carried out to prepare for ?worst-case? conditions. However, hazard severity is highly variable. Performing evacuation modeling for multiple hazard scenarios may provide flexibility and a comprehensive understanding of evacuation capacity. A case study was undertaken to analyze the merit of scenario-based evacuation modeling. Results demonstrate a difference in clearance time between maximum and historic tsunami scenario modeling. During a smaller-scale event, allowing the maximum scenario population to evacuate can add congestion and inhibit evacuation of at-risk populations. Managing evacuation can improve evacuation efficiency by preventing unneeded congestion. Results show that traditional worst-case-scenario modeling may lead to overestimation of time needed to evacuate. Planning under such a scenario may increase risk to smaller-scale hazards.
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
University of Agder (UiA)
Place of Publication
Kristiansand, Norway
Editor
L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language
English
Summary Language
English
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2411-3387
ISBN
9788271177881
Medium
Track
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis
Expedition
Conference
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes
Approved
yes
Call Number
Serial
1303
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