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Author  |
Pengfei Zhou; Tao Chen; Guofeng Su; Bingxu Hou; Lida Huang |
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Title |
Research on the Forecasting and Risk Analysis Method of Snowmelt Flood |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2020 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2020 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
545-557 |
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Keywords |
Snowmelt Flood, Daily Snowmelt, Snow Water Runoff, Risk Analysis, Forecasting Method. |
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Abstract |
Risk analysis of snowmelt flood is an urgent demand in cold highland areas. This paper focuses on the method for the rapid and reliable forecast of daily snowmelt, snow water runoff, and snowmelt flood risk. A neural network algorithm is used to calculate snow density distribution, snow depth and snow-water equivalent with the brightness temperature data. Then, daily snowmelt is predicted using the degree-day factor method with the temperature distribution. On this basis, we use the steepest descent method and Manning formula with hydrographic information to simulate snow water runoff. We also propose a method to predict the snowmelt flood risk with the geographic feature and historical flood data. The evaluated risk is compared with monitored data in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, which shows good consistency. At last, we develop a risk analysis system to generate the snowmelt flood risk map and provide risk analysis service. |
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Address |
Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University; Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University; Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University; Beijing Global Safety Technology Co. Ltd.; Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Virginia Tech |
Place of Publication |
Blacksburg, VA (USA) |
Editor |
Amanda Hughes; Fiona McNeill; Christopher W. Zobel |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
978-1-949373-27-51 |
ISBN |
2411-3437 |
Medium |
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Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
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Conference |
17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
zpf18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn |
Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
2252 |
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