Abbas Ganji, Negin Alimohammadi, & Scott Miles. (2019). Challenges in Community Resilience Planning and Opportunities with Simulation Modeling. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The importance of community resilience has become increasingly recognized in emergency management and
post-disaster community well-being. To this end, three seismic resilience planning initiatives have been
conducted in the U.S. in the last decade to envision the current state of community resilience. Experts who
participated in these initiatives confronted challenges that must be addressed for future planning initiatives.
We interviewed eighteen participants to learn about the community resilience planning process, its
characteristics, and challenges. Conducting qualitative content analysis, we identify six main challenges to
community resilience planning: complex network systems; interdependencies among built environment systems;
inter-organizational collaboration; connections between the built environment and social systems;
communications between built environment and social institutions? experts; and communication among
decision-makers, social stakeholders, and community members. To overcome the identified challenges, we
discuss the capability of human-centered simulation modeling as a combination of simulation modeling and
human-centered design to facilitate community resilience planning.
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Alexander Gabriel, Florian Klein, & Frank Fiedrich. (2020). Modelling of Passenger Handling Processes in Railway Stations – A Mixed-Methods Approach. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 580–592). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: The constantly increasing number of passengers using public transportation leads to an expansion of the ser-vices offered by public transportation companies. The existing transportation infrastructures, especially rail-way stations, can only partly cope with this rapid growth. There is already overcrowding on platforms and access routes, especially during disruptions caused by natural disasters or major public events. This crowding may result in personal injury or shutdown of operations for safety reasons. The research project CroMa aims at improving robustness, safety, security and performance of railway stations at peak loads. The paper contributes thereto by developing an approach to assess railway infrastructure in terms of the risk of overcrowding. The core of this research is to combine qualitative workshop results with quantitative database analysis. Furthermore, the paper gives an outlook on the ongoing process model development as a basis for a semi-quantitative evaluation tool for railway stations applicable by end users.
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Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Miguel Almeida, & Christoph Aubrecht. (2015). Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability ? High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.
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Alexandre Ahmad, Olivier Balet, Arjen Boin, Julien Castet, Maureen Donnelley, Fabio Ganovelli, et al. (2016). Assessing the Security of Buildings: A Virtual Studio Solution. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: This paper presents an innovative IT solution, a virtual studio, enabling security professionals to formulate, test and adjust security measures to enhance the security of critical buildings. The concept is to virtualize the environment, enabling experts to examine and assess and improve on a building?s security in a cost-effective and risk-free way. Our virtual studio solution makes use of the latest advances in computer graphics to reconstruct accurate blueprints as well as 3D representations of entire buildings in a very short timeframe. In addition, our solution enables the creation and simulation of multiple threat situations, allowing users to assess security procedures and various responses. Furthermore, we present a novel device, tailored to support collaborative security planning needs. Security experts from various disciplines evaluated our virtual studio solution, and their analysis is presented in this paper.
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Ana Gabriela Núñez Avila, & Mª Carmen Penadés Gramage. (2019). Towards an organization certified in emergency plans management. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: QuEP is a framework that guides organizations in assessing and improving their emergency plan management by
following a set of principles, practices, and techniques at the different maturity levels established in the QuEP model.
Its main objective is to be applied to real cases to discover the state of an organization?s emergency plan management
and recommend techniques for improvement. In this paper, we describe the first application of QuEP as a prior step
to its implementation and possible use in official certifications for emergency plans with a guarantee of quality. So,
we have applied a real case in a UPV building towards the certification of the emergency plan management.
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Ana-Gabriela Núñez, Mª Carmen Penadés, & José H. Canós. (2016). QuEP: Building a Continuous Improvement of Emergency Plans Management. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: While different governments worldwide have published sets of recommendations-or even laws-for increasing preparedness, a reference framework to assess the level of compliance of organizations is still to come. For instance, emergency plans often remain stored in closets where they stay until some emergency or major legal change occurs. Consequently, achieving actual preparedness is difficult to assess. QuEP is a framework for the assessment and improvement of the management of emergency plans within organizations. It is inspired by the Total Quality Management strategy, and provides a hierarchy of emergency plan management maturity levels. The aim of QuEP is to guide organizations to assess and improve their emergency preparedness by following a set of principles, practices and techniques at the technical, human and strategic levels. In this paper, we show the model underlying the framework, and give details of the current framework evaluation processes.
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Ana-Gabriela Núñez, Mª Carmen Penadés, José H. Canós-Cerdá, & Marcos R. S. Borges. (2015). Towards a Total Quality Framework for the Evaluation and Improvement of Emergency Plans Management. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The evaluation of the quality of emergency plans is an unresolved issue. While most research efforts have focused on the definition and improvement of planning methods and the associated tools, a reference framework allowing the assessment of emergency plans is still missing. In this paper, we report our initial work towards the definition of a quality framework for emergency plan management. To create it, we are borrowing results from more than one century of research on quality methods, with special emphasis in the newest Total Quality Management approaches that pay attention to technical, human and strategic concerns during the plan development process. The QuEP framework defines a number of planning principles and practices to define a maturity-driven layered model for the evaluation of organizations. We list the principles and practices, and describe its potential to be integrated with other emergency plan management frameworks.
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Ana-Gabriela Núñez, Sebastián Cedillo, Andrés Alvarado Martínez, & Ma Carmen Penadés. (2020). Towards the Building of a Resilient City able to Face Flood Risk Scenarios. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 593–601). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Despite the efforts that have been made to inform the community about the possible environmental risks, there is still a general lack of information. Currently, we are working on a flood risk scenario focused on a proposal towards a resilient culture together with the support of Information Technologies (IT) as a way to manage information. The goal is twofold: (i) on the one hand, to manage data in a small scenario to analyze and process the data collected from sensors in different sites in a micro-basin. Data get from data processing such as flow and velocity will then be the input data for hydraulic models to predict floods downstream; (ii) on the other hand, to publicize the predictions and the data already processed means people can benefit from information on flood risks, and the different participants may change their perception and consider cooperating in improving resilience.
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Avgoustinos Filippoupolitis, Lachlan MacKinnon, & Liz Bacon. (2015). A Survey on Emergency Preparedness of EU citizens. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Population preparedness plays a crucial role in disaster management since it can help reduce the number of victims and restrict damage. Nevertheless, little work has been done at a European level towards preparing populations to learn how to cope with disasters and involving them in the disaster management process. In this paper we present the preliminary results of an on-line emergency preparedness survey circulated among EU citizens, which aims to identify and analyse people?s behaviour in terms of preparedness, first reaction, risk awareness and willingness to engage in preparedness actions. Our preliminary analysis, based on over 1200 participants, indicates that although EU populations have a high capability for participation in emergency response, their preparedness level is low. We also found that national differences are a significant factor affecting individual preparedness behaviour and awareness of risks.
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Benjamin Herfort, Melanie Eckle, João Porto de Albuquerque, & Alexander Zipf. (2015). Towards assessing the quality of volunteered geographic information from OpenStreetMap for identifying critical infrastructures. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Identifying the assets of a community that are part of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) is a crucial task in emergency planning. However, this task can prove very challenging due to the costs involved in defining the methodology and gathering the necessary data. Volunteered Geographic Information from collaborative maps such as OpenStreetMap (OSM) may be able to make a contribution in this context, since it contains valuable local knowledge. However, research is still due to assess the quality of OSM for the particular purpose of identifying critical assets. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a catalogue of critical asset types, based on the analysis of different reference frameworks. We thus analyze how good the emergent OSM data model is for representing these asset types, by verifying whether they can be mapped to tags used by the OSM community. Results show that critical asset types of all selected sectors and branches are well represented in OSM.
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Binxu Zhai, & Jianguo Chen. (2017). Research on the forecasting of Air Quality Index (AQI) based on FS-GA-BPNN: A case study of Beijing, China. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 307–321). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: The analysis and forecasting of eminent air quality play a significant role in municipal regulatory planning and emergency preparedness. In this paper, a FS-GA-BPNN model forecasting the daily average Air Quality Index (AQI) is proposed. Special procedures for feature extraction to find more potential significant variables and feature selection to remove redundant information and avoid overfitting are conducted before modelling. Three different models – BPNN, GA-BPNN and FS-GA-BPNN are established to compare the prediction accuracy, generalization ability and reliability. 17 parameters involving pollutant concentration, meteorological elements and surrounding factors are found essential for the method effectiveness. The result shows that the FS-GA-BPNN model generally performs superior to ordinary BPNN, suggesting the necessity of extensive data mining and feature extraction for successful machine learning. The results of this paper can help to conduct air quality pre-warning system and improve the emergency planning process of extreme weather events.
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Erik A.M. Borglund, & Lena-Maria Öberg. (2014). Creation of an exercise scenario: A collaborative design effort. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 488–492). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: To increase the preparedness Crisis response and management authorities carry out various forms of exercises. This article is based upon a three year long project named Gaining security symbiosis (GSS). The project was aiming to increase the collaboration between crisis actors in the Swedish-Norway border region through exercises. We argue that creation of scenarios is a design challenge. In the GSS project, the exercises are built upon designed scenarios, which should make the exercise realistic and make the trainee train the expected. We propose a scenario design method that is built upon an iterative approach and that includes collaboration with the actors that are involved in the exercise. The method also includes a set of characteristics that could be used to evaluate the events of the scenario. The method have been developed and refined during the project and show some promising result. There is however a need for future research when it comes to further development and evaluation of the proposed design method.
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José H. Canós-Cerdá, Juan Sánchez-Díaz, Vicent Orts, Carmen Penadés, Abel Gómez, & Marcos R. S. Borges. (2014). Turning emergency plans into executable artifacts. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 498–502). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: On the way to the improvement of Emergency Plans, we show how a structured specification of the response procedures allows transforming static plans into dynamic, executable entities that can drive the way different actors participate in crisis responses. Additionally, the execution of plans requires the definition of information access mechanisms allowing execution engines to provide an actor with all the information resources he or she needs to accomplish a response task. We describe work in progress to improve the SAGA's Plan definition Module and Plan Execution Engine to support information-rich plan execution.
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Christoph Amelunxen, & Janina Isabella Sander. (2019). Information collection using process visualisation in the risk management concept for emergency response. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Security-critical processes of emergency response are part of a complex system of people, organisation and
technology. They are often characterised by their own dynamics, interconnectedness and information deficits. In
addition, a wide variety of stakeholders, some from different organisations, work together, each specialising in a
specific area. In order to capture this (process-) knowledge in risk management, information from the experts is
necessary. However, experts are difficult to access, often separated locally, cost-intensive and usually have little
time (discussion-) capacity. A pictogram-based process visualisation was developed within the risk management
concept. The method could be validated within a European project in an expert workshop. This was done using
the example of a CBRN mass casualty incident. By using the methods presented, very good qualitative and
quantitative results can be achieved from the perspectives of various organisations and their experts. The limited
resource ?expert? is used optimally.
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Clara Grimes, Mihoko Sakurai, Vasileios Latinos, & Tim A Majchrzak. (2017). Co-creating Communication Approaches for Resilient Cities in Europe: the Case of the EU Project Smart Mature Resilience. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 353–362). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Cities face a wide range of risks. Potential threats range from natural disasters and the (relatively slow) environmental change, to man-made issues like extremism. To overcome such threats, cities ought to be resilient, capable of resisting problems, of adapting to new situations, and overcoming crises. Effective communication is particularly crucial for a resilient city. Rather than trusting that relevant stakeholders, municipal staff and citizens will intuitively communicate in the ideal way, cities should see communication as a strategic aspect of their resilience development. Thus, how resilient cities communicate should be strategically managed. In this paper, we present immediate results from an ongoing European project called Smart Mature Resilience. In this project, we work with seven cities towards the ultimate goal of developing a Resilience Management Guideline for all European cities. Moreover, we intend to set up a resilience backbone in Europe, which will be driven by effective communication between cities.
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Tiago C. De França, Diogo Nolasco, Rafael Lage Tavares, Jose Orlando Gomes, & De Paulo V. R. Carvalho. (2014). A critical insight of the pope's visit to Brazil for the world youth day: Resilience or fragility? In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 463–472). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This work proposes a model to evaluate systems regarding their resilience in handling unexpected disturbances. To exemplify the use of the proposed model, we chose to analyze the World Youth Day (WID), an important event on the global scenario that happened this year in Rio de Janeiro, a city which will host big events in the next few years, like the World Cup and the Olympic Games. From this event, we chose two disturbances that stressed the system and had the possibility to cause a lot of problems to the event and the city, like the rains in Guaratiba and the arrival of the Pope's committee. After analyzing how the overall WYD organization deal with these disturbances we conclude that, besides the success of the event, the organization showed much more signs of brittleness than resilience.
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Diana C. Arce Cuesta, Gilbert J. Huber, Jose Orlando Gomes, & Paulo V. R. Carvalho. (2015). A Framework to Capture Incidents during Emergency Situations. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Emergency organizations have contingency plans, which define responsibilities, resources, and actions to be performed in an emergency situation. However, unexpected incidents may arise and cause additional difficulty in the emergency control process. The knowledge that team members develop to deal with these incidents and keep the system ?functioning? improves resilience and response and is very valuable for such organizations. This research addresses the problem of how to capture the incidents and knowledge generated during the emergency response through a conceptual framework. The framework defines a structured process for preparation and capture of incidents during an emergency through direct observations, to assist in the capture and proper representation of the incidents to produce knowledge within other practitioners.
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Dimitrios Kavallieros, George Leventakis, Stefanos Malliaros, Ioannis Daniilidis, & Vasileios Grizis. (2015). PPDR Information Systems ? A Current Status Review Report. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Public safety organizations include emergency and law enforcement agencies, fire departments, rescue squads, and Emergency Medical Services (EMS). In response to increasing threats of terrorism and natural disasters, safety and security personnel must overcome technology barriers to enhance their efficiency, especially in the neuralgic section of information exchange. Limited availability of information hinders the response time and decision making process. Efficient communications supported by interoperable technology are vital to the situational awareness, scalability, and effectiveness of incident response. This paper?s prime objective is the review of available information systems than can be used to support and assist security agencies.
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Magiswary Dorasamy, Murali Raman, & Maniam Kaliannan. (2014). Evaluating CEMAS in simulated environment to support disaster management challenges. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 444–453). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Researchers and emergency management system designers constantly find ways to produce suitable systems that have best fit between technology, and tasks. However, there is significant gap in the literature on designing information system that places greater emphasis on situational qualities. We posit that situational qualities are as important as information system success qualities such as system quality, information/knowledge quality and service quality. This research work aimed to fill this theoretical gap in designing IS for disaster management and to contribute towards guiding design decisions for future emergency management information systems development. A prototype system called CEMAS was designed and developed to support current challenges in disaster management. The underlying guiding theory for CEMAS was situational qualities interweaved within information system success factors in the form of knowledge management system. This paper presents the evaluation results of CEMAS in a simulated environment for flood.
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E. Martina Granholm. (2017). What about IT? Crisis Exercises for Multiple Skills. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 341–352). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Cooperation and interaction demands digital skills. In an agile context, there is no time for learning while doing, implicating that many of the skills need to be practiced beforehand. Since exercises are one way of enhancing skills needed in crisis situations, it is important to know what skills are practiced during the exercises. This review aims to understand what skills have been practiced during exercises conducted in Sweden between 2010 and 2014. Data was obtained from 15 evaluations of exercises including multiple actors. Most exercises practiced collaboration, communication, information and shared situation awareness skills. Results showed that 4 out of 15 had a specific goal in terms of technology use. Exercises with explicit technology goals are effective as a way to change opinions about the tool in question. The participants requests additional exercises specifically targeting routines and the use of technological tools.
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Edward J. Glantz, & Frank E. Ritter. (2017). Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 363–373). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Effective risk management begins with successful risk identification. Unfortunately, traditional approaches may lead to haphazard and incomplete results. To overcome this, we present a new integrative approach to improve risk identification that sequentially investigates protector-views and narrow scopes using literature review, ethnography, and subject matter expertise. This paper illustrates this approach by identifying man-made and natural threats to mass-gathering events in general, and stadium security as an example. Improving risk identification enhances resilience to known risks by enabling planning and development of targeted response strategies. Working from a more complete portfolio of risk resilience strategies may also improve flexibility and agility to respond to new and emerging risks.
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Edward Ruiz. (2015). System Information Management for Risk Reduction (GIRE System) in Schools of Costa Rica. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The generation of resilient learning communities has become a priority for the national government of Costa Rica, recognizing the importance of incorporating a cross-cutting component of risk management in the education sector of the country. However, this process must be accompanied by appropriate access to information to enable decision-making in the field of planning. This prototype seeks to establish itself as an alternative solution to reduce gaps in information in the context of risk reduction in schools.
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Eelco Vriezekolk, Sandro Etalle, & Roel Wieringa. (2015). Validating the Raster Risk Assessment Method in Practice. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Telecommunication services are essential to modern information systems, especially so for crisis management. Telecoms systems are complex and difficult to analyse. Current risk assessment methods are either not used because of their complexity, or lack rigorous argumentation to justify their results because they are oversimplified. Our challenge has been to develop a risk assessment method that is both usable in practice and delivers understandable arguments to explain and justify its risk evaluations. After experiments to validate the method in laboratory environments, we now present the first results from successful application with practitioners in a regional crisis organization that provides evidence about the practical usability of the method.
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Elisa Canzani. (2016). Modeling Dynamics of Disruptive Events for Impact Analysis in Networked Critical Infrastructures. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) highly determines the societal welfare. If a failed infrastructure is unable to deliver services and products to the others, disruptive effects can cascade into the larger system of CIs. In turn, decision-makers need to understand causal interdependencies and nonlinear feedback behaviors underlying the entire CIs network toward more effective crisis response plans. This paper proposes a novel block building modeling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to capture complex dynamics of CIs disruptions. We develop a SD model and apply it to hypothetical scenarios for simulation-based impact analysis of single and multiple disruptive events. With a special focus on temporal aspects of system resilience, we also demonstrate how the model can be used for dynamic resilience assessment. The model supports crisis managers in understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting their impacts to improve strategic planning in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP).
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Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
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