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Siska Fitrianie, & Leon J. M. Rothkrantz. (2015). Dynamic Routing during Disaster Events. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Innovations in mobile technology allow the use of Internet and smartphones for communicating disasters and coordinating evacuations. However, given the turbulent nature of disaster situations, the people and systems at crisis center are subjected to information overload, which can obstruct timely and accurate information sharing. A dynamic and automated evacuation plan that is able to predict future disaster outcome can be used to coordinate the affected people to safety in times of crisis. In this paper, we present a dynamic version of the shortest path algorithm of Dijkstra. The algorithm is able to compute the shortest path from the user?s location (sent by the smartphone) to the safety area by taking into account possible affected areas in future. We aim at employing the computed routes on our mobile communication system for navigating affected people during emergency and disaster evacuations. Two simulation studies have validated the performance of the developed algorithm.
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Stefan Schauer, Stefan Rass, Sandra König, Thomas Grafenauer, & Martin Latzenhofer. (2018). Analyzing Cascading Effects among Critical Infrastructures. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 428–437). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: In this article, we present a novel approach, which allows not only to identify potential cascading effects within a network of interrelated critical infrastructures but also supports the assessment of these cascading effects. Based on percolation theory and Markov chains, our method models the interdependencies among various infrastructures and evaluates the possible consequences if an infrastructure has to reduce its capacity or is failing completely, by simulating the effects over time. Additionally, our approach is designed to take the intrinsic uncertainty into account, which resides in the description of potential consequences a failing critical infrastructure might cause, by using probabilistic state transitions. In this way, not only the critical infrastructure's risk and security managers are able to evaluate the consequences of an incident anywhere in the network but also the emergency services can use this information to improve their operation in case of a crisis and anticipate potential trouble spots.
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Sardar Muhammad Sulaman, Taimor Abbas, Krzysztof Wnuk, & Martin Höst. (2014). Hazard analysis of collision avoidance system using STPA. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 424–428). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: As our society becomes more and more dependent on IT systems, failures of these systems can harm more and more people and organizations both public and private. Diligently performing risk and hazard analysis helps to minimize the societal harms of IT system failures. In this paper we present experiences gained by applying the System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) method for hazard analysis on a forward collision avoidance system. Our main objectives are to investigate effectiveness in terms of the number and quality of identified hazards, and time efficiency in terms of required efforts of the studied method. Based on the findings of this study STPA has proved to be an effective and efficient hazard analysis method for assessing the safety of a safety-critical system and it requires a moderate level of effort.
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Susanne Kubisch, Johanna Stötzer, Sina Keller, María Bull, & Andreas Braun. (2019). Combining a social science approach and GIS-based simulation to analyse evacuation in natural disasters: A case study in the Chilean community of Talcahuano. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: In rapid-onset disasters the time needed for evacuation is crucial. Aside from the behaviour of the population, the
road network plays a fundamental role. It serves as a medium to reach a safe area. This study analyses the entire
evacuation process, from decision-making up to the arrival at an evacuation zone by combining standardised
questionnaires and GIS-based simulation. Based on a case study in the Chilean community of Talcahuano, an
event-based past scenario and a hypothetical future scenario is investigated, integrating the affected population in
the research process. The main problem identified in past evacuations has been time delay due to congestions,
which also is evident in the results of the hypothetical future scenario. A result which supports evacuation by foot.
This paper argues that a combination of scientific methods is essential for analysing evacuation and to reduce the
risk due to time delay, critical route and transport medium choice.
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Sara Tena, Ignacio Aedo, David Díez, & Paloma Díaz. (2014). TIPExtop: An exploratory design tool for emergency planning. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 454–462). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Emergency planning is an ongoing activity in which a multidisciplinary group of experts intermittently collaborate to define the most appropriate response to risks. One of the most important tasks of emergency planning is risk reduction. Such a task compiles the analysis of capabilities to face an emergency, the prioritizing of activities, and the definition of procedures and strategies. It is therefore a reflection process based on exchanging information between planners and exploring alternatives. Despite the exploration of alternatives is an especially relevant activity to design better plans, recent research on computer-mediated collaborative tools for planning do not usually offer support for this activity. Thus, with the purpose of supporting reflection during the development of risk reduction tasks, this paper presents an exploratory design tool that allow planners to assess the space of alternatives and the underlying information related those alternatives. This planning tool will help planners to examine and contextualize information, allowing them to define more suitable response strategies.
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Thomas Münzberg, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Schultmann. (2015). The Effect of Coping Capacity Depletion on Critical Infrastructure Resilience. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Coping capacities (CCs) are often implemented at Critical Infrastructure (CI) facilities to ensure a continuous supply of vital services and products for a population during lifeline disruptions. Through various restrictions, these redundant backups are frequently limited and, hence, only allow a supply continuity for a short duration. The capacity depletes with the duration of the disruptions. In this paper, we discuss how this decrease is evaluated in disaster management. To get an enhanced insight, we introduce to a representative decision problem and used a demonstrative example of a power outage to discuss how decision maker consider the effect of CC depletion and how analytical approaches could address this issue. For doing so an expert survey and an analytical approach were implemented and applied. The comparison and the discussion of the results motivate further research directions on this topic.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Linda Plotnick, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2014). Development of a dynamic scenario model for the interaction of critical infrastructures. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 414–423). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development of a Cross Impact and Interpretive Structural Model of the interactions of 16 critical infrastructures during disasters. It is based on the estimates of seven professionals in Emergency Management areas and was conducted as an online survey and Delphi Process. We describe the process used and the current results, indicating some of the disagreements in the estimates. The initial results indicate some very interesting impacts of events on one another, resulting in the clustering of events into mini-scenarios.
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Viavattene Christophe, Priest Sally, Owen Damon, Parker Dennis, Micou Paula, & Ly Sophie. (2016). INDRA Model: For A Better Assessment of Coastal Events Disruptions. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Natural hazards such as extreme coastal events can generate indirect impacts extending far beyond the exposed areas and the direct aftermath of the event. The recognition of such impacts in risk assessment is essential for preparing, mitigating against such events and for increasing the resilience of coastal communities. However the assessment is often limited to the direct impacts. This paper proposes new methodologies for assessing the indirect impacts of coastal storm events. Eight impacts are considered in the approach: household displacement, a financial recovery of households and businesses, business supply chain disruption, ecosystem recovery, risk to life, utility and transport disruptions. These methodologies are incorporated in the open-source INDRA model (INtegrated DisRuption Assessment) to compare and identify hotspots at a regional using a multi-criteria analysis.
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Victor A. Bañuls Silvera, Rafael Cantueso Burguillos, Fernando Tejedor Panchón, Miguel Ramírez de la Huerga, & Murray Turoff. (2019). A Delphi approach for the establishment of the fundamental principles of an Organizational Security System in Public Administration. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The aim of this work is defining fundamental principles of an Internal Security System in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The relevance of this object of study has increased even more with the emergence of new terrorist groups and the proliferation of organized crime, which have been categorized as a maximum threat to Security by the government. This context has led to new regulations and legislation on Security matters at the national and international level to protect assets, people and the activity of the Administration itself. Despite the large number of regulations and relevance of this topic, there is not any study which defines in a comprehensive manner the requirements that a security system must have in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The results of this work are intended to be a reference for the Public Administration, for the prevention and reaction to damage to people, property, and operation, intentionally caused by external agents, personnel themselves or users. These principles have been applied and validated through a Delphi process in the Administration of the Regional Government of Andalusia in which more than 40 security-related managers have participated.
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Simone Wurster, & Ulrich Meissen. (2014). Towards an economic assessment approach for early warning systems: Improving cost-avoidance calculations with regard to private households. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 439–443). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS) have proven their value by saving many lives. However, most in-vestments into EWS were motivated directly by experienced disaster events and rarely pro-actively by possible up-coming threats. In order to change that we think that besides ethical and humanitarian reasons also the positive economic effects should be analyzed. EWS also help to protect property, but their contribution is not as obvious in that field due to the lack of quantitative models. This paper presents a disaster-independent formula that shows the benefits of EWS. Additional value to existing approaches is based on its advanced focus on behavioral aspects and the benefits of EWS in comparison to warnings issued via social media. We consider this work as an important contribution for future investments into warning technologies. However, yet this model just provides a theoretical framework for necessary empirical studies that are subject of further research.
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Xiao LongDeng, Hui Zhang, Ya Qi Tang, & Le Yi Ren. (2015). Risk Analysis of International Spreading in 2014 Ebola Outbreak to China Compared to Social Media. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The 2014 West African EbolaOutbreak raisedfrom Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia at December in 2013 has been reported to cause 21296 cases and 8429 deaths until now which became the deadliest recorded in history. In this paper, we proposed the riskanalysis to assess the international spread risk from mentioned three African countries to China by GEM(Global Epidemic Mobility) Model. As another part of analysis, we crawled related online social media data of Ebola from the most four favorite online social networks (including SINA, TENCENT) in China from June to November in 2014.By analyzing these attained social media data and airline data of GEM, we found some interesting results. For example, Beijing has the most importing risk of Ebola while it has the hottest discussion on social network.. Furthermore, we showed analysis of combining social network data with geographicaldemonstration and Chinese citizen sentiment towards this disaster.
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Yang Gao. (2016). Risk Zoning of the Urban Shelter in Earthquake. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In order to deal with the huge threat and loss caused by the earthquake, established the evaluation system and model, and the risk zoning map is drawn according to the study of the vulnerability of Xicheng District's streets. According to the spatial coupling relationship between social vulnerability and physical vulnerability, drawn the comprehensive risk zoning map of Shichahai street as a typical case. The results show that Xicheng District and Shichahai street have their own vulnerability, which is very different from the social vulnerability and physical vulnerability of different streets and communities.
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Yangyang Meng, Xiangliang Tian, Chang Liu, Zhongwen Li, Zhijie Zhou, & Maohua Zhong. (2020). Research on Emergency Capability Evaluation of Network Operation-Based Urban Rail Transit. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 530–544). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: In the process of network operation, it is of great significance to evaluate the emergency capability for the safety and resilience of urban rail transit. In this work, we proposed an emergency capability evaluation model of network operation-based urban rail transit by building a four-level index system. AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method demonstrated the effectiveness of the evaluation index system. The ranking of index importance Wi characterizes the emergency capability of network operation-based urban rail transit. Taking Shenzhen Metro as an example, this study analyzed the risk in the actual network operation, evaluated the emergency capability of network operation and calculated the comprehensive score of emergency capability. Furthermore, based on the correlation analysis results from the emergency capability indexes, we put forward some measures to improve the weaker indexes in the evaluation. The results indicate that the emergency capability evaluation method of network operation-based urban rail transit proposed in this study can better guide the emergency management of network operation-based urban rail transit.
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Yao Simin, & Zhong Shaobo. (2015). Exposure Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster Based on Land Use and Precipitation Extreme: A Case Study of Beijing, China. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The risk of rainstorm disaster is expected to increase with rising disaster losses as a consequence. Besides the uncertainty of frequency and severity of rainfalls, it can also be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas and the resulting accumulation of population and assets. Therefore, it?s important to both analyze historical precipitation and estimate land use condition. In this study, the data of land use status and historical heavy rainfalls of 16 districts in Beijing are collected to obtain the exposure level zoning map and carry out a comprehensive analysis. This is followed by Spearman?s rank correlation analysis and the correlations between the exposure and disaster losses have been discussed. This study presents a new perspective of exposure assessment, and some useful ideas about city planning and management are proposed in view of the inevitable trend of rapid urbanization in China.
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Yiewi Li., Yu Guo, & Naoya Ito. (2014). An exploration of a social-cognitive framework for improving the human-centric risk communication. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 394–398). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: With the aim of improving human-centric risk communication, this research in progress paper argues for a social-cognitive perspective focusing on the interaction between laypeople and the information environment. A model is designed to predict laypeople's environmental risk perception and information seeking behavior. Using data from a national online survey (N=1,032), our research is an effort to test the predictive power of the socialcognitive model. Practical implications are also discussed in this paper.
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Yiting Zheng, Jianguo Chen, Wenjie Tang, & Jiaxiang Xu. (2016). Research on Target Diversity and Risk Analysis Model of Terrorist Attack. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Terrorist attack continues to spread in the world which leads to severe casualties and property losses and poses great pressure to the government. Therefore it is essential to identify the potential targets terrorists may select, assess the risk level and take risk management measures in advance. Aiming to this problem, the paper provides a new analysis method. Firstly it investigates target types terrorists prefer to and target diversity based on the data in Global Terrorist Database ; Then it puts forward the target risk analysis of three-dimensional model which considers the threat probabilityã?the target vulnerability and the consequence severity; Finally, the paper calculates and assesses the risk level using the fuzzy synthesis decision-making method, and two examples are given to prove the feasibility of the model. The result can contribute to target risk analysis and emergency preparedness or management of terrorist attack.
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Yiwei Li, Yu Guo, & Naoya Ito. (2015). The Role of Information Quality and Efficacy Beliefs in Predicting Chinese People?s Information Seeking about Air Pollution Risk. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Information seeking is suggested as an important precursor of self-protective behavior. Therefore, ways of enhancing information seeking are expected to help individuals? precautionary action under conditions of risk. Builds upon previous efforts, a social-cognitive model of risk information seeking is constructed, presenting a new approach to meet the aforementioned expectation. Data were collected from a sample of Mainland Chinese people (N=1032). Results of path analysis demonstrated satisfactory model fit. Explanations on how the cognitive process resulted in information seeking may create a better understanding of individual behavior. Findings provide practical implications for communicating risks and for helping the public to make better decisions.
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Yuanyuan Li, Wenguo Weng, Tao Chen, & Hongyong Yuan. (2014). A Chinese earthquake database for casualty modelling. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 493–497). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In order to conduct empirical casualty modelling in China, Chinese historical earthquake events is the essential basis. However, commonly used casualty databases that focus on Chinese earthquakes and provide comprehensive information rarely exist. Regarding this situation, we derived an earthquake casualty database of Mainland China from authorized Chinese published data sources. The casualty database records 520 earthquake events with magnitude 5.0 and greater where at least one casualty is recorded in the time span from 186 BC through December 2011. Each earthquake case contains information on seismic parameters, deaths tolls, number of heavy injuries and light injuries, as well as areas and population of affected regions from intensity VI to intensity IV. Compared with PAGER-CAT, this casualty database provides 146 unique earthquake events and provides more detailed information on heavy injuries and light injures, as well as areas and exposure population of affected regions. This casualty database is an essential supplement for global casualty databases and provides a basis for earthquake casualty modelling on post-earthquake risk estimation in China.
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Zewei Zhang, Hongyong Yuan, & Lida Huang. (2018). Study on the Utility of Emergency Map in Emergency Response. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 377–387). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: As modern cities expand rapidly, the loss of emergency has been more serious. To reduce or even avoid losses caused by disasters, using emergency maps to collect, aggregate, analyze, and communicate information is a prerequisite for efficient response. In this paper, we analyzed the impact factors of information transfer efficiency, and constructed the communication model provided by Emergency Map. By comparing the difference with case deduction between the traditional communication mode in emergency response and the new communication mode based on Emergency Map, which is called Group Communication Mode. We proved the Group Communication Mode had the advantages to improve information transfer efficiency in emergency response. Emergency Map can be an effective tool for the timely transfer of information among departments, which put forward a novel communication mode in emergency decision-making process.
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Marian Zulean, & Gabriela Prelipcean. (2014). Emergency preparedness in the European union. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 513–517). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: European Union is an important global actor – in terms of economy, welfare and soft security – but its institutional development and ambitions has to consider both the issues of grand challenges, resilience, disaster management, in accordance with its citizens' will and skills. The Lisbon Treaty as well as the recent legislation on civil protection produced incremental change and improved the Emergency Management. However, there are not studies to check how the new institutions, the knowledge flows or decisions work. The final goal of this short paper is to structure an inquiring system and design a research project on assessing the civil protection policy in the EU through a Delphi study with experts and practitioners. While the first part frames the issues the second part will design the methodology and sampling strategy for a Delphi technique.
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