Alexander Gabriel, Babette Tecklenburg, & Frank Sill Torres. (2022). Threat and Risk Scenarios for Offshore Wind Farms and an Approach to their Assessment. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 162–173). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: Offshore wind farms in the German North and Baltic Seas have a key role to play in the context of the shift towards renewable energy and in securing electricity supplies in the future. At the same time, however, shipping routes in the North and Baltic Seas are among the busiest in the world, wind farms are increasingly being operated unmanned and conflicts increasingly involve a hybrid element. From these constellations and competing interests, various risk and threat scenarios emerge. By means of a survey among experts from offshore wind industry, this paper first captures the subjective assessment of the risk situation in order to subsequently develop an approach for their evaluation. The paper uses Bayesian networks in order to enable a risk assessment also under inclusion of uncertain parameters.
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Alexander Gabriel, Babette Tecklenburg, Yann Guillouet, & Frank Sill Torres. (2021). Threat analysis of offshore wind farms by Bayesian networks – a new modeling approach. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 174–185). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: As a result of the ongoing commitment to climate protection in more and more countries and the corresponding expansion of renewable energies, the importance of renewables for the security of electricity supply is also increasing. Wind energy generated in offshore wind farms already accounts for a significant share of the energy mix and will continue to grow in the future. Therefore, approaches and models for security assessment and protection against threats are also needed for these infrastructures. Due to the special characteristics and geographical location of offshore wind farms, they are confronted with particular challenges. In this context, this contribution outlines how an approach for threat analysis of offshore wind farms is to be developed within the framework of the new research project “ARROWS” of the German Aerospace Center. The authors first explain the structure of offshore wind farms and then present a possible modeling approach using Qualitative function models and Bayesian networks.
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