Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
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Johannes Sautter, Janina Hofer, Sven Wirth, Wolf Engelbach, Matthias Max, Tanel Tenso, et al. (2014). Local-specific resource planning for mass casualty incidents. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 503–507). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In the situation of mass casualty incidents in Germany the questions that always remain are what and how much resources are needed to provide the best response. Furthermore, there are many local-specific constraints that exist, such as the density of hospitals nearby, what their surgery capacities are like, the distance between the local rescue bases and the incident scene as well as the level of preparedness of first responders. This paper describes an organisational approach to elaborate the specific tactical strategies that take part in preparedness planning. Furthermore, this paper will give insight and explore a simulation information system to support local medical response managers in elaborating those strategies in an office environment.
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