Toshihiro Osaragi, Koji Ogino, Noriaki Hirokawa, & Takuya Oki. (2022). Severity of Crowding at Evacuation Shelters after a Major Earthquake. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 22–43). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: A number of residents are presumed to evacuate to shelters after a large earthquake. However, the congestion of evacuation shelters has not been enough discussed. In this paper, we propose an evacuation behavior model, which includes sub-models on building damage, water-supply failure, power failure, fire damage, and elevator stall. Using the model estimated using the survey data of the past earthquakes, we discuss the congestion of evacuation shelters under the assumption of Tokyo Bay northern earthquake. Finally, we discuss improvement of water pipes for earthquake resistance to reduce the congestion degree of evacuation shelters, which varies according to regional vulnerability.
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