Abstract: Population sheltering is a recurrent problem in crisis management that requires addressing two aspects: evacuating vulnerable people using emergency vehicles and regulating movements of pedestrians and individual vehicles towards shelters. While these aspects have received considerable attention in modeling and simulation literature, very few approaches consider them simultaneously. In this paper, we argue that Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) and Optimization are two complementary approaches that can address the problem of sheltering globally and efficiently and be the basis of coherent frameworks for decision- and policy-making. Optimization can build efficient sheltering plans, and ABMS can explore what-if scenarios and use geospatial data to display results within a realistic environment. To illustrate the benefits of a framework based on this coupling approach, we simulate actual flash flood scenarios using real-world data from the city of Trèbes in South France. Local authorities may use the developed tools to plan and decide on sheltering strategies, notably, when and how to evacuate depending on available time and resources.

Abstract: Australia is frequently hit by bushfires. In 2009, the “Black Saturday” fires killed 173 people and burnt hectares of bush. As a result, a research commission was created to investigate, and concluded that several aspects could be improved, in particular better understanding of the population actual behaviour, and better communication with them. We argue that agent-based modelling and simulation is a great tool to test possible communication strategies, in order to deduce valuable insight for emergency managers before new fires happen. In this paper, we extend an existing agent-based model of the population behaviour in bushfires. Concretely, we added a communication model based in social sciences, and user interactivity with the model. We present the results of first experiments with dierent communication strategies, providing valuable insight for better communication with the population during such events. This model is still preliminary and will eventually be turned into a serious game.

Abstract: Partial or total horizontal evacuation of populations in urban areas is an important protection measure against a natural or technological risk. However, casualties during massive displacement in a context of stress and in a potentially degraded environment may be high due to non-compliance with instructions, accidents, traffic jams, incivilities, lack of preparation of civil security or increased exposure to hazards. Working in evacuation plans is therefore fundamental in avoiding casualties caused by improvisation and in promoting self-evacuation whenever possible. Since it is impossible to re-create the conditions of a crisis on the ground to assess such evacuation plans, there is a need for realistic models in order to evaluate them using simulations. In this paper, we present the ESCAPE software framework that helps in the development of such plans and testing them. In particular, ESCAPE, which uses the GAMA open-source platform as a core component, provides an agent-based simulation tool that supports simulation of the evacuation of a city's population at fine temporal and Geographical scales. The framework was developed such that it works for a wide range of scenarios, both in terms of hazards, geographical configurations, individual behaviors and crisis management. In order to show its adaptability, two applications are presented, one concerning the evacuation of the city of Rouen (France) in the context of a technological hazard and the other pertaining to the evacuation of the district of Hanoi (Vietnam) in the event of floods.

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the process of co-creation of knowledge between modelers and ethnographers through a project focusing on the role played by CIGS (Citizen initiatives for global solidarity) in the refugee crisis in the island of Lesvos, Greece. We describe the process of collaboration and discuss what this type of interdisciplinary collaboration may bring to the development of a research topic when the initial skepticism and questions of epistemological differences have been overcome. Moreover, we address some of the challenges embedded in this type of research collaboration, particularly the skepticism present within the social sciences.

Abstract: We demonstrate a method of validating the utility of simpler, more agile models for supporting tactical robust decision making. The key is a focus on the decision space rather than the situation space in decision making under deep uncertainty. Whereas the situation space is characterized by facts about the operational environment, the decision space is characterized by a comparison of the options for action. To visualize the range of options available, we can use computer models to generate the distribution of plausible consequences for each decision option. If we can avoid needless detail in these models, we can save computational time and enable more tactical decision-making, which will in turn contribute to more efficient Information Technology systems. We show how simpler low fidelity, low precision models can be proved to be sufficient to support the decision maker. This is a pioneering application of exploratory modeling to address the human-computer integration requirements of tactical robust decision making.

Abstract: Traditional seismic risk assessment approaches focus on assessing the damages to the urban fabric and the resultant socio-economic consequences, without adequately incorporating the social component of risk. However, the human behavior is essential for anticipating the impacts of an earthquake, and should be included in quantitative risk assessment studies. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework for simulating pedestrians' evacuation in an urban environment during and in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. The model is applied to Beirut, Lebanon and integrates geo-spatial, socio-demographic, and quantitative behavioral data corresponding to the study area. Several scenarios are proposed to be explored using this model in order to identify the influence of relevant model parameters. These experiments could contribute to the development of improved of emergency management plans and prevention strategies.

Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the ongoing research into the development of an agent-based model to enable simulations to be performed of agents evacuating from a multi-floor building with a complex layout, including staircases. Specifically, a flow field of navigation objects is constructed pre-computation, which stores the directions and shortest distances to all exits and staircases. Using the flow field, a navigation method is proposed for agents familiar with the environment to identify and follow the shortest route to a chosen exit. Preliminary simulations have been performed to investigate the effect on evacuation time of (i) exit configurations and (ii) familiarity of agents with the building layout. In assessing the effect of exit configurations, results show that the location of the main entrance has a significant influence on evacuation time. In addition, having more exits does not necessarily lead to a shorter evacuation time. In terms of the effect of familiarity of agents, having more agents with a greater level of familiarity does not significantly reduce evacuation time in most cases.

Abstract: In today's globalized world and with the extensive use of social media, there is a high connectivity of people across countries, which can be a helpful potential in disaster response. In a coordinated manner, spontaneous volunteers from neighbouring nations can provide high manpower and resources to a disaster affected area. In this article, we discuss why the consideration of spontaneous volunteers is relevant in a cross-border context in order to improve disaster resilience for borderlands. Furthermore, we introduce a baseline agent-based model to simulate cooperation procedures for the involvement of spontaneous volunteers to the official crisis response in a borderland and discuss important issues that need to be addressed in future considerations.