Felix Wex, Guido Schryen, & Dirk Neumann. (2012). Operational emergency response under informational uncertainty: A fuzzy optimization model for scheduling and allocating rescue units. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Coordination deficiencies have been identified after the March 2011 earthquakes in Japan in terms of scheduling and allocation of resources, with time pressure, resource shortages, and especially informational uncertainty being main challenges. We suggest a decision support model that accounts for these challenges by drawing on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy optimization. Based on requirements from practice and the findings of our literature review, the decision model considers the following premises: incidents and rescue units are spatially distributed, rescue units possess specific capabilities, processing is non-preemptive, and informational uncertainty through linguistic assessments is predominant when on-site units vaguely report about incidents and their attributes, or system reports are not exact. We also suggest a Monte Carlo-based heuristic solution procedure and conduct a computational evaluation of different scenarios. We benchmark the results of our heuristic with results yielded through applying a greedy approach. The results indicate that using our Monte Carlo simulation to solve the decision support model inspired by fuzzy set theory can substantially reduce the overall harm. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kim Weyns, & Martin Höst. (2009). Dependability of IT systems in municipal emergency management. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In recent years governmental actors have become more and more dependent on IT systems for their responsibilities in a crisis situation. To avoid unexpected problems with the dependability of IT systems in the aftermath of a crisis it is important that such risks are identified and that measures can be taken to reduce the dependence on systems that could be unreliable. This paper describes two case studies exploring how Swedish municipalities incorporate IT systems in their emergency planning. The study focuses especially on how different actors within a municipality cooperate to analyse the risks of depending on IT systems in critical situations. The study shows that today there is much room for improvement, especially in the communication between IT personnel and emergency managers. Finally, this paper describes the requirements for a process improvement framework that can assist governmental actors in analysing and improving their dependency on IT systems in emergency management.
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Kim Weyns, & Martin Höst. (2012). Risk analysis for critical systems with reliability block diagrams. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Governmental organisations are becoming more critically dependant on IT systems such as communication systems or patient data systems, both for their everyday tasks and their role in crisis relief activities. Therefore it is important for the organisation to analyse the reliability of these systems as part of the organisation's risk and vulnerability analysis process. This paper presents a practical risk analysis method for critical, large-scale IT systems in an organisation. The method is based on reliability block diagram modelling and was adapted to fit the requirements of governmental organisations and to reduce the effort required to capture complex failure behaviour. The paper first explicitly lists the requirements that such a risk analysis method must fulfil, then presents the proposed risk analysis method and finally outlines the planned evaluation of this method. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kim Weyns, & Martin Höst. (2013). Case study on risk analysis for critical systems with reliability block diagrams. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 693–702). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper presents a practical risk analysis method for critical, large-scale IT systems in an organisation. The method is based on reliability block diagram modelling and was adapted to fit the requirements of governmental organisations and to reduce the effort required to capture complex failure behaviour. Through the use of different failure categories the risk analysis can be simplified, the input data becomes easier to estimate and the results are easier to use in an organisational risk and vulnerability analysis. The paper first explicitly describes the different steps of the method and then presents a case study in which the method was applied and evaluated in a real-life setting. The method is meant to help an organisation to communicate internally about the reliability of their critical IT systems and to prioritise proposed improvements to this reliability.
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Simone Wurster, & Ulrich Meissen. (2014). Towards an economic assessment approach for early warning systems: Improving cost-avoidance calculations with regard to private households. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 439–443). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS) have proven their value by saving many lives. However, most in-vestments into EWS were motivated directly by experienced disaster events and rarely pro-actively by possible up-coming threats. In order to change that we think that besides ethical and humanitarian reasons also the positive economic effects should be analyzed. EWS also help to protect property, but their contribution is not as obvious in that field due to the lack of quantitative models. This paper presents a disaster-independent formula that shows the benefits of EWS. Additional value to existing approaches is based on its advanced focus on behavioral aspects and the benefits of EWS in comparison to warnings issued via social media. We consider this work as an important contribution for future investments into warning technologies. However, yet this model just provides a theoretical framework for necessary empirical studies that are subject of further research.
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Max Wyss. (2005). Earthquake loss estimates applied in real time and to megacity risk assessment. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 297–299). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Real time loss estimates within one to two hours after major earthquakes are becoming useful for disaster managers and rescue teams to respond rapidly and at an optimal level. Tests show that the accuracy is low, but major disasters can be reliably distinguished from inconsequential earthquakes. Many technical and organizational aspects of these estimates can and should be improved. An analysis of what magnitude of disaster is likely to occur, if a major earthquake should occur near a megacity in a developing country shows that much work needs to be done to mitigate the risk, and that the global community is ill prepared to deal with such large disasters.
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Yao Simin, & Zhong Shaobo. (2015). Exposure Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster Based on Land Use and Precipitation Extreme: A Case Study of Beijing, China. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The risk of rainstorm disaster is expected to increase with rising disaster losses as a consequence. Besides the uncertainty of frequency and severity of rainfalls, it can also be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas and the resulting accumulation of population and assets. Therefore, it?s important to both analyze historical precipitation and estimate land use condition. In this study, the data of land use status and historical heavy rainfalls of 16 districts in Beijing are collected to obtain the exposure level zoning map and carry out a comprehensive analysis. This is followed by Spearman?s rank correlation analysis and the correlations between the exposure and disaster losses have been discussed. This study presents a new perspective of exposure assessment, and some useful ideas about city planning and management are proposed in view of the inevitable trend of rapid urbanization in China.
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Hüseyin Can Ünen. (2012). Developing a framework for a social vulnerability and consequence-based post-disaster behavior analysis methodology. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: The proposed study is expected to focus on the less investigated areas by the previous seismic risk analyses in Turkey. Most of the existing loss assessment methodologies focus on structural damage, infrastructural damage, economic impact, and casualties. However, affected population estimates and development of plans for the immediate needs and recovery requirements of the surviving population are also of equal importance. The proposed framework in this aspect will be utilizing previous social vulnerability and seismic loss assessment studies to develop an analysis methodology for affected population and social response analyses. The methodology is expected to help response planners and decision makers in determining the needs for the surviving population in the recovery process. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Yuanyuan Li, Wenguo Weng, Tao Chen, & Hongyong Yuan. (2014). A Chinese earthquake database for casualty modelling. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 493–497). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In order to conduct empirical casualty modelling in China, Chinese historical earthquake events is the essential basis. However, commonly used casualty databases that focus on Chinese earthquakes and provide comprehensive information rarely exist. Regarding this situation, we derived an earthquake casualty database of Mainland China from authorized Chinese published data sources. The casualty database records 520 earthquake events with magnitude 5.0 and greater where at least one casualty is recorded in the time span from 186 BC through December 2011. Each earthquake case contains information on seismic parameters, deaths tolls, number of heavy injuries and light injuries, as well as areas and population of affected regions from intensity VI to intensity IV. Compared with PAGER-CAT, this casualty database provides 146 unique earthquake events and provides more detailed information on heavy injuries and light injures, as well as areas and exposure population of affected regions. This casualty database is an essential supplement for global casualty databases and provides a basis for earthquake casualty modelling on post-earthquake risk estimation in China.
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Zeno Franco, Nina Zumel, John Holman, Kathy Blau, & Larry E. Beutler. (2009). Evaluating the impact of improvisation on the incident command system: A modified single case study using the DDD simulator. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This study attempted to evaluate the utility of the Incident Command System (ICS) in varying disaster contexts. ICS is mandated in the United States and practitioners assert that it is an effective organizing system for emergency management. However, researchers contend that the utility of ICS is conflated with inter-team familiarity gained during ICS exercises. A military team-in-the-loop simulator was customized to represent the problems, resources, and command structures found in civilian led disaster management teams. A modified single case design drawn from behavioral psychology was used to explore possible casual relationships between changes team heterogeneity and performance. The design also allowed for the evaluation of improvisation on performance. Further, psychological factors that may underpin improvisation were explored. In addition to some preliminary empirical findings, the successes and difficulties in adapting the DDD simulator are briefly discussed as part of an effort to achieved greater interdisciplinary integration.
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Zeno Franco, Nina Zumel, & Larry E. Beutler. (2007). A ghost in the system: Integrating conceptual and methodology considerations from the behavioral sciences into disaster technology research. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 115–124). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: As the complexity of disasters increases, a transdisciplinary conceptual framework designed to address three key variables-technology, disaster severity, and human characteristics-must be developed and elaborated. Current research at the nexus of disaster management and information science typically addresses one or two of these factors, but rarely accounts for all three adequately-thus rendering formal inquiry open to a variety of threats to validity. Within this tripartite model, several theories of human behavior in disaster are explored using the response of the Federal Government and the general public during Hurricane Katrina as an illustrative background. Lessons learned from practice-based scientific inquiry in the social sciences are discussed to address concerns revolving around measurement and statistical power in disaster studies. Finally, theory building within the transdisciplinary arena of disaster management and information science is encouraged as a way to improve the quality of future research.
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Dimitris Zisiadis, Spyros Kopsidas, Vassilis Grizis, George Thanos, George Leventakis, & Leandros Tassiulas. (2012). STAR-TRANS Modeling Language (STML) modeling risk in the STAR-TRANS risk assessment framework for interconnected transportation systems. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: The present paper introduces a high level modeling language, capable of expressing the concepts and processes of the Strategic Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning in Interconnected Transportation Networks (STAR-TRANS) framework. STAR-TRANS is a comprehensive transportation security risk assessment framework for assessing related risks that provides cohered contingency management procedures for interconnected, interdependent and heterogeneous transport networks. STAR-TRANS modeling Language (STML) is a domain specific language combining language simplicity with a very clear syntax, providing all the necessary elements (assets, threats, incidents, consequences etc.) to model the STAR-TRANS risk assessment framework. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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