Kevin D. Henry, & Tim G. Frazier. (2015). Scenario-Based Modeling of Community Evacuation Vulnerability. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Evacuation models can be used to determine evacuation capacity, by estimating the time required for evacuating populations to leave areas exposed to a hazard. Disaster management practices and evacuation modeling are generally carried out to prepare for ?worst-case? conditions. However, hazard severity is highly variable. Performing evacuation modeling for multiple hazard scenarios may provide flexibility and a comprehensive understanding of evacuation capacity. A case study was undertaken to analyze the merit of scenario-based evacuation modeling. Results demonstrate a difference in clearance time between maximum and historic tsunami scenario modeling. During a smaller-scale event, allowing the maximum scenario population to evacuate can add congestion and inhibit evacuation of at-risk populations. Managing evacuation can improve evacuation efficiency by preventing unneeded congestion. Results show that traditional worst-case-scenario modeling may lead to overestimation of time needed to evacuate. Planning under such a scenario may increase risk to smaller-scale hazards.
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Michael Klafft, & Ulrich Meissen. (2011). Assessing the economic value of early warning systems. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: As of today, investments into early warning systems are, to a large extent, politically motivated and “disaster-driven”. This means that investments tend to increase significantly if a disaster strikes, but are often quickly reduced in the following disaster-free years. Such investment patterns make the continuous operation, maintenance and development of the early warning infrastructure a challenging task and may lead to sub-optimal investment decisions. The paper presented here proposes an economic assessment model for the tangible economic impact of early warning systems. The model places a focus on the false alert problematic and goes beyond previous approaches by incorporating some socio-cultural factors (qualitatively estimated as of now). By doing so, it supports policymakers (but also private investors) in their investment decisions related to early warning applications.
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Rita Kovordanyi, Rudolf Schreiner, Jelle Pelfrene, Johan Jenvald, Henrik Eriksson, Amy Rankin, et al. (2012). Real-time support for exercise managers' situation assessment and decision making. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Exercise managers and instructors have a particularly challenging task in monitoring and controlling on-going exercises, which may involve multiple response teams and organizations in highly complex and continuously evolving crisis situations. Managers and instructors must handle potentially incomplete and conflicting field-observation data and make decisions in real-time in order to control the flow of the exercise and to keep it in line with the training objectives. In simulation-based exercises, managers and instructors have access to a rich set of real-time data, with an increased potential to closely monitor the trainees' actions, and to keep the exercise on track. To assist exercise managers and instructors, data about the on-going exercise can be filtered, aggregated and refined by real-time decision-support systems. We have developed a model and a prototype decision-support system, using stream-based reasoning to assist exercise managers and instructors in real-time. The approach takes advantage of topic maps for ontological representation and a complex-event processing engine for analyzing the data stream from a virtual-reality simulator for crisis-management training. Aggregated data is presented both on-screen, in Twitter, and in the form of topic maps. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kimmo Laakso. (2013). Emergency management: Identifying problem domains in communication. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 724–729). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: In emergency management, the identification of hazards, analysis of risks, development of mitigation and response plans, maintaining of situational awareness and support of response and recovery are all complex responsibilities. A major accident brings together individuals belonging to many different organizations, having backgrounds in different fields of operation, and representing different organizational cultures. They have to absorb a large amount of information about the accident over a short period of time. In order to take effective action, actors are expected to work smoothly together, thus the flow of information from and to the actors involved is crucial. Nevertheless, there are certain problem domains in the different phases of emergency management, which may weaken the flow of information. In this paper we present the findings of the first round of a Delphi study in which we identified problem domains in communication both in long-term and short-term planning for major accidents.
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Ana Laugé, Josune Hernantes, & Jose Mari Sarriegi. (2013). Disaster impact assessment:A holistic framework. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 730–734). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: One of the important aspects of the crisis management consists in a comprehensive analysis of the impacts generated and their associated cost. The capacity to carry out an efficient holistic management, through the development of preventive measures and response programs relies on a proper estimation of impacts which helps to mitigate the harshness or can even avoid impacts in face of future crises. The aim of this paper is to analyse existing methodologies for natural disasters' impact evaluation, the identification of the different impact categories as well as the explanation of a natural disasters impact framework, which includes a list of indicators for a correct impact assessment. The framework also analyses the evolution of impacts, that is, how immediate impacts can also generate delayed impacts.
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Laura Laguna Salvadó, Matthieu Lauras, & Tina Comes. (2018). A Sustainability Maturity Assessment Method for the Humanitarian Supply Chain. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 276–290). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: The HSC is a key element for the success of HOs relief operations. Today, the HSC performance faces many challenges: (1) the increasing gap between funding and needs; (2) donors ask for more transparency and accountability; (3) the growing urgency of switching to sustainable development is gaining ground in public opinion. Consequently, to maintain a competitive position (order winner) in the near future, considering sustainability in addition to effectiveness and efficiency to measure the performance of the operations becomes fundamental. In the literature, some authors have highlighted that the lack of Decision Support Systems difficult the planning and achievement of sustainability performance objectives in humanitarian operations. Therefore, we propose a sustainability maturity assessment method to improve the sustainability of HSC operations. Using the information gathered from IFRC field research, as well as from the literature, a proof of concept is presented to demonstrate the relevance of the proposal.
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George Leventakis, Athanasios Sfetsos, Vasileios Gkrizis, Nikolas Athanasiadis, Stefan Tönjes, Spyros Kopsidas, et al. (2011). A Security Risk Analysis Framework for interconnected transportation systems. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The present paper introduces a comprehensive Transportation Security Risk Assessment Framework for assessing related risks and provides cohered contingency management procedures in interconnected, interdependent and heterogeneous transport networks. The proposed approach includes elements, methodological tools and approaches found in the literature, in addition to operational experience from the organization of major events.
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Benedikt Ley, Volkmar Pipek, Christian Reuter, & Torben Wiedenhöefer. (2012). Supporting inter-organizational situation assessment in crisis management. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: To assess current situation properly is crucial for effective decision-making in crisis management. However, gathering accurate information from incidence sites and providing appropriate support for assessment practices faces several challenges. The unique information demands of each crisis situation, the information availability or inter-organizational problems and obstacles to information exchange are important factors that need to be considered in designing ICT. In this contribution we present results from an empirical study about decision-making practices in scenarios of medium to large power outages in Germany. We focused on the needs and practices on information exchange at the level of inter-organizational cooperation. We examined the cooperation of fire departments, police, public administration, electricity infrastructure operators and citizens. Our empirical material reflects particularly conditions and challenges in current situation assessment practices, and we were able to derive design requirements for an inter-organizational situation assessment client as a complementary tool for existing crisis management infrastructures. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Lida Huang, Guoray Cai, Hongyong Yuan, Jianguo Chen, Yan Wang, & Feng Sun. (2018). Modeling Threats of Mass Incidents Using Scenario-based Bayesian Network Reasoning. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 121–134). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Mass incidents represent a global problem, putting potential threats to public safety. Due to the complexity and uncertainties of mass incidents, law enforcement agencies lack analytical models and structured processes for anticipating potential threats. To address such challenge, this paper presents a threat analysis framework combining the scenario analysis method and Bayesian network (BN) reasoning. Based on a case library
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Daniel Link, Bernd Hellingrath, & Tom De Groeve. (2013). Twitter integration and content moderation in GDACSmobile. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 67–71). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Recent years have shown that mobile devices and Twitter can play a significant role in providing real-time data from disaster-affected areas to disaster managers. Against this background we present a workflow for Twitter integration into a disaster management information system, and a concept for content moderation that can increase the quality of disseminated information.
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Lívia Castro Degrossi, João Porto de Albuquerque, Roberto dos Santos Rocha, & Alexander Zipf. (2017). A Framework of Quality Assessment Methods for Crowdsourced Geographic Information: a Systematic Literature Review. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 532–545). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Crowdsourced Geographic Information (CGI) has emerged as a potential source of geographic information in different application domains. Despite the advantages associated with it, this information lacks quality assurance, since it is provided by different people. Therefore, several authors have started investigating different methods to assess the quality of CGI. Some of the existing methods have been summarized in different classification scheme. However, there is not an overview of the methods employed to assess the quality of CGI in the absence of authoritative data. On the basis of a systematic literature review, we found 13 methods that can be employed to this end.
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Lutiane Queiroz de Almeida, Torsten Welle, & Jörn Birkmann. (2016). A Methodological Proposal to Disaster Risk Indicators in Brazil. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: This article provides a tool to help assess, visualise and communicate different levels of exposure, vulnerability and risk in Brazil. The Disaster Risk Index in Brazil may sensitise public and political decision-makers towards the important topic of disaster risk and climate change adaptation. This article aims to explore the feasibility and usefulness of such a national risk index that considers both natural hazard phenomena and social vulnerability. The results showed that the risk is strongly interwoven with social-economic and cultural conditions and normal everyday life, as well as with the performance of state institutions dealing with Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Risk Management, in other words, vulnerability. Spatial trends of disaster risk and vulnerability, products of this research, also have stressed the serious inequalities between and within regions of the country, which result in barriers to the development of the DRR and DRM in Brazil as a whole.
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Magdalena Granåsen, Mari Olsén, & Per-Anders Oskarsson. (2018). Assessing Interorganizational Crisis Response Capability – Initial Results of a Systematic Literature Review. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 190–202). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: The ability to learn from crises is vital in order to strengthen the capability of societies to manage severe events. This paper presents the initial analysis of a systematic literature review regarding capability assessment of inter-organizational crisis management systems. Inter-organizational crisis management capability is a diverse concept, touching on several related concepts such as resilience, situation awareness and operational performance. During a systematic review process 73 publications were identified. The different aspects of crisis management capability found in the publications were clustered, using an exploratory approach. Nine thematic clusters were identified: interaction, relationships, coordination/C2, system performance, preparedness, situation awareness, resilience, decision making and information infrastructure. A conclusion is that crisis response capability encompasses a multitude of aspects associated with a wide range of assessment methods. The identified publications to a large extent explored aspects of collaboration and coordination, while the actual outcome (system performance) was less explored.
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Maki Tagashira, & Toshihiro Osaragi. (2021). Accessibility Assessment of Vulnerable Roadside Areas after a Major Earthquake. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 553–566). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: In order to reduce human casualty after a large earthquake, it is vital to secure the traffic function of main roads. Local governments promote the seismic reinforcement of roadside buildings, however, the project is not going well as planned. There is a high demand for appropriate information of its effect. In this paper, we proposed a method to identify the roadside areas with vulnerable accessibility to disaster bases after a large earthquake. First, we defined the accessibility indices; Link Isolation ratio (LI ratio) and Network Isolation ratio (NI ratio). Then, using the simulation model, we evaluated the accessibility to disaster base hospitals using emergency transportation roads in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. LI ratio tended to be low in areas with a sparse road network. Furthermore, some hospitals indicated a severely high NI ratio. In secondary medical areas with these hospitals, it is necessary to consider the measures to improve accessibility.
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Manon Grest, Matthieu Lauras, & Benoit Montreuil. (2020). A Humanitarian Supply Chain Maturity Model. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 613–621). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Over the past decades, humanitarian organizations have largely been criticized for their lack of effectiveness regarding their mission of assisting vulnerable population. However, few researches have investigated what ideal should humanitarian organizations tend toward and the path to undertake in such transformation. In this perspective, this paper intends to overcome this situation by proposing a supply chain maturity model specifically addressed to the humanitarian sector. In the form of a two-dimension matrix, the table aims at: 1) Objectify one organization's position regarding its transformation journey 2) Depending on the organization, identify the specific improvement areas and suggest their sequence. An instantiation of the maturity model is also proposed through the case of the Indonesian red cross.
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Mari Olsén, Niklas Hallberg, Per-Anders Oskarsson, & Magdalena Granåsen. (2020). Exploring Capabilities that Constitute Inter-Organizational Crisis Management. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 417–426). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Crises are infrequent, unpredictable and complex events. Managing such events requires well-prepared and well-coordinated efforts by several response organizations. Hence, a sufficient inter-organizational crisis management (ICM) capability is critical for sustainable societies. To ensure the ICM capability, approaches for enhancing and evaluating it are needed. The objective of this study was to identify and elaborate a clearly defined set of capabilities that constitutes ICM capability. The study was performed by an explorative literature study, where identified capabilities related to ICM were clustered. The cluster of capabilities was iteratively evaluated and refined. The study resulted in 14 capabilities that constitute ICM capability, which were divided into core, supportive, and enabling capabilities. The set of capabilities may provide a foundation for a framework of ICM capability with the ability to support assessment of ICM performance both in exercises and in real ICM operations, as well as in the design of ICM exercises.
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Tiago Badre Marino, Bruno Santos Do Nascimento, & Marcos R. S. Borges. (2012). GIS supporting data gathering and fast decision making in emergencies situations. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: This proposal rises from the Center for Disasters Scientific Support experience over eleven years supporting over a hundred disasters in Latin America. It also presents a case study applied to landslides assessments in Teresopolis (Brazil) city, when all field-generated knowledge was still registered in paper and later, at the base station, uploaded to database and finally available for managers evaluation and decision. The proposed methodology creates a platform (still under development) which allows online registration from different field agents during their evaluations enabling data upload combining mobile devices and telecommunication network (or Wi-Fi) technologies. Teams can also customize forms for different information classes (i.e. landslide assessment, rescued person, blocked road) and still retain the possibility to attach images, videos, other files related to each inspection. Incoming data are stored into a web database available for a real-time coordinators evaluation wherever they are (sometimes over a thousand of miles away from disaster area). © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Marinus Maris, & Gregor Pavlin. (2006). Distributed perception networks for crisis management. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 376–381). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Situation assessment in crisis management applications can be supported by automated information fusion systems, such as Distributed Perception Networks. DPNs are self-organizing fusion systems that can infer hidden events through interpretation of huge amounts of heterogeneous and noisy observations. DPNs are a logical layer on top of existing communication, sensing, processing and data storage infrastructure. They can reliably and efficiently process information of various quality obtained from humans and sensors through the existing communication systems, such as mobile phone networks or internet. In addition, modularity of DPNs supports efficient design and maintenance of very complex fusion systems. In this paper, a fully functional prototype of a DPN system is presented that fuses information from gas sensors and human observations. The task of the system is to compute probability values for the hypothesis that a particular gas is present in the environment. It is discussed how such a system could be used for crisis management.
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John M. McGuirl, Nadine B. Sarter, & David D. Woods. (2008). Seeing is believing?: The effects of real-time, image-based feedback on emergency management decision-making. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 406–414). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Emergency management personnel often face feedback delays and a lack of reliable information. To address this problem, new information technologies have been developed that can provide real-time, image-based feedback. While potentially useful, this trend represents a fundamental shift in both the timing and format of the information used by incident commanders (ICs). Eight ICs took part in a simulation exercise to determine the potential impact of real-time imaging on their decision-making. Nearly all of the ICs failed to detect important changes in the situation that were not captured in the imaging but that were available via other, more traditional data sources. It appears that the ICs placed an inappropriately high level of trust in the imaging data, resulting in reduced data search activities and hypothesis generation. This research helps practitioners anticipate and guard against undesirable effects of introducing similar technologies on training and operational procedures.
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Mirjam Merz, Valentin Bertsch, Otto Rentz, & Jutta Geldermann. (2007). Assessment of industrial asset values at risk. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 235–243). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In the event of natural disasters and extreme events like storms, floods and earthquakes, not only people, residential buildings and infrastructure, but also industry can be seriously affected. Direct losses to installations as well as indirect losses e.g. interruption of production can cause severe damage to companies and the economy as a whole. For a comparative and quantitative risk assessment and as a prerequisite for emergency planning and crisis management (e.g. planning of mitigation measures), a financial appraisal of industrial assets at risk is needed. This paper presents the reference installation approach which is a methodology that allows a consistent and transparent assessment of individual industrial asset values. In this bottom up approach due to the consideration of the heterogeneity of various industrial sectors, the obtained results can be depicted for a detailed spatial distribution and on a high degree of accuracy.
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Muhammad Imran, Firoj Alam, Umair Qazi, Steve Peterson, & Ferda Ofli. (2020). Rapid Damage Assessment Using Social Media Images by Combining Human and Machine Intelligence. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 761–773). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Rapid damage assessment is one of the core tasks that response organizations perform at the onset of a disaster to understand the scale of damage to infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and buildings. This work analyzes the usefulness of social media imagery content to perform rapid damage assessment during a real-world disaster. An automatic image processing system, which was activated in collaboration with a volunteer response organization, processed ~280K images to understand the extent of damage caused by the disaster. The system achieved an accuracy of 76% computed based on the feedback received from the domain experts who analyzed ~29K system-processed images during the disaster. An extensive error analysis reveals several insights and challenges faced by the system, which are vital for the research community to advance this line of research.
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Thomas Münzberg, Tim Müller, Stella Möhrle, Tina Comes, & Frank Schultmann. (2013). An integrated multi-criteria approach on vulnerability analysis in the context of load reduction. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 251–260). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Load reduction is an emergency measure to stabilize an electrical grid by decoupling some supply areas to balance the demand and supply of electricity in power grids. In the decoupled areas, power outages may cause important consequences, which may propagate further via the network of interdependent infrastructures. Therefore, support is needed to choose the regions to be decoupled. This paper describes an approach to analyze the risk triggered by load reduction that can be used for disaster management and load reduction scheme optimization. The core of our work is the vulnerability assessment that takes into account the consequences of load reduction on economy and society. The approach facilitates participatory decision support by making the vulnerability of regions especially in urban transparent.
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Thomas Münzberg, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Schultmann. (2014). A strategy evaluation framework based on dynamic vulnerability assessments. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 45–54). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Assessing a system's vulnerability is a widely used method to estimate the effects of risks. In the past years, increasingly dynamic vulnerability assessments were developed to display changes in vulnerability over time (e.g. in climate change, coastal vulnerability, and flood management). This implies that the dynamic influences of management strategies on vulnerability need to be considered in the selection and implementation of strategies. For this purpose, we present a strategy evaluation framework which is based on dynamic vulnerability assessments. The key contribution reported in this paper is an evaluation framework that considers how well strategies achieve a predefined target level of protection over time. Protection Target Levels are predefined objectives. The framework proposed is inspired by Goal Programming methods and allows distinguishing the relevance of time-dependent achievements by weights. This enables decision-makers to evaluate the overall performance of strategies, to test strategies, and to compare the outcome of strategies.
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Thomas Münzberg, Ulrich Berbner, Tina Comes, Hanno Friedrich, Wendelin Groß, Hans-Christian Pfohl, et al. (2013). Decision support for critical infrastructure disruptions: An integrated approach to secure food supply. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 312–316). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Supplies of food and water are essential in disaster management, particularly in the very early chaotic phases when demand and available resources are highly uncertain, information systems are disrupted, and communication between communities, food suppliers, retail and emergency authorities is difficult. As many actors and organisations are involved in ever more complex food supply chains, cooperation and collaboration are vital for efficient and effective disaster management. To support decision-makers facing these problems, this paper introduces a scenario-based approach that integrates simulation of disruptions in food supply chains, and qualitative expert assessment to develop consistent scenarios that show the consequences of different strategies. To choose the best individual measures for all relevant actors and to compare it with the best overall strategy approaches from multi-criteria decision analysis are used.
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Nawel Amokrane, & Nicolas Daclin. (2017). Deducing Complex Scenarios for Resilience Analysis: Application to the Franco-German High Speed Train Network. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 464–474). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: The present work is part of the project RE(H)STRAIN1 which investigates security and its impact on the resilience of the Franco-German high-speed train network in case of terrorist attacks. To improve the capacity of this network to recover a normal functioning after a terrorist attack, appropriate security measures must be determined. To do so, the project investigates, in a scenario-driven holistic approach the entire terrorist sphere of possible actions. Terrorism threat is first defined as a set of single attacks called vignette attacks represented by the triplet actor – weapon – target, then complex attack scenarios are built considering combination rules detailed in this article. In this regard, this work aims at providing end-users with an approach to automatically deduce a set of formalized, consistent and plausible complex attack scenarios to allow in further steps to analyze and improve the resilience level of the high-speed train transportation infrastructure.
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