Stella Moehrle. (2014). On the assessment of disaster management strategies. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 215–219). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Decision support systems can recommend strategies for disaster management, which can be further discussed by decision-makers. To provide rationales for the recommendations, the strategies need to be assessed according to relevant criteria. If several strategies are available, the criteria can be used for ranking the strategies. This paper addresses the issue concerning the choice of suitable criteria from several perspectives. The assessment integrates concepts on robustness, experience with regard to the implementation of a strategy, quantifiable ratios which can be deduced from simulations, and system-specific parameters. Objectives are to facilitate transparency with respect to the assessments, to provide a basis for discussions concerning the strategies, and to preserve adaptability and flexibility to account for the variability of disasters and users' preferences. The assessment should be used for ranking solutions gained from a case-based reasoning system and to reveal contributions of criteria values to the overall assessment.
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Stefan Moellmann, David Braun, Hagen Engelmann, & Wolfgang Raskob. (2011). Key performance indicator based calculations as a decision support for the tactical level. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: For the planning of relief operations the duration and the necessary resources are key factors for a successful completion. Those factors, however, are difficult to estimate due to the large number of influencing factors in a complex crisis situation. This paper presents a software module that supports the planning by calculating the duration and the required resources for relief measures based on key performance indicators (KPI). It is part of a project called SECURITY2People aiming to develop the basics for an integrated disaster management system. The module consists of an easy to use tool to calculate the timing of a relief measure when applied to a given disaster site. In addition it contains a detailed view to display and edit the model of the selected measure which is depicted as a Gantt chart and forms the basis of the calculation. Finally, the paper describes how this module can benefit from interoperability with other modules of this project and existing systems and services.
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Mohd Khairul Azmi Hassan, & Yun-Heh Chen-Burger. (2016). Communication and Tracking Ontology Development for Civilians Earthquake Disaster Assistance. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: One of the most important components of recovery and speedy response during and immediately after an earthquake disaster is a communication and tracking which possibly capable of discovering affected peoples and connects them with their families, friends, and communities with first responders and/or to support computational systems. With the capabilities of current mobile technologies, we believed that it can be a smart earthquake disaster tools aid to help people in this situation. Ontologies are becoming crucial parts to facilitate an effective communication and coordination across different parties and domains in providing assistance during earthquake disasters, especially where affected locations are remote, affected population is large and centralized coordination is poor. Several existing competing methodologies give guidelines as how ontology may be built, there are no single right ways of building an ontology and no standard of Disaster Relief Ontology exist, although separated related ontologies may be combined to create an initial version. This article discusses the on-going development of an ontology for a Communication and Tracking System (CTS), based on existing related ontologies, that is aimed to be used by mobile phone applications to support earthquake disaster relief at the real-time.
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Sung Pil Moon, Yikun Liu, Steven O. Entezari, Afarin Pirzadeh, Andrew Pappas, & Mark Pfaff. (2013). Top health trends: An information visualization tool for awareness of local health trends. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 177–187). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: We developed an intelligent information visualization tool to enable public health officials to detect healthrelated trends in any geographic area of interest, based on Twitter data. Monitoring emergent events such as natural disasters, disease outbreaks, and terrorism is vital for protecting public health. Our goal is to support situation awareness (SA) for personnel responsible for early detection and response to public health threats. To achieve this goal, our application identifies the most frequently tweeted illnesses in a ranked chart and map for a selected geographic area. Automated processes mine and filter health-related tweets, visualize changes in rankings over time, and present other keywords frequently associated with each illness. User-centered visualization techniques of monitoring, inspecting, exploring, comparing and forecasting supports all the three stages of SA. An evaluation conducted with experts in health-related domains provided significant insights about awareness of localized health trends and their practical use in their daily work.
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Adriaan ter Mors, Jeroen M. Valk, & Cees Witteveen. (2005). An event-based task framework for disaster planning and decision support. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 151–153). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Because of the apparent ineffectiveness of current disaster plans, we focus our research on modeling emergency response activities. If we can capture the crucial concepts of emergency response in a mathematical framework and apply this framework to construct disaster plans, then we pave the way for the development of automated decisions support systems for emergency response.
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Jürgen Moßgraber, Fernando Chaves, Stuart E. Middleton, Zlatko Zlatev, & Ran Tao. (2013). The seven main challenges of an early warning system architecture. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 322–331). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: In this paper, we describe the work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on “Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises”. One of the two decision support use cases in the project deals with Tsunami Early Warning. A modern warning system that follows a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and subsystems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. Working on the architecture of such a system, you need to deal with a lot of current computer science and information technology problems as well as state-of-the-art solutions from the areas of Big Data and Human Sensors. In this paper, we present the seven main challenges we needed to solve and describe the necessary design decisions we made to tackle them.
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Willem J. Muhren, Damir Durbic, & Bartel A. Van De Walle. (2010). Exploring decision-relevant information pooling by humanitarian disaster response teams. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: It is a well-known fact that a lack of information will lead to suboptimal decisions. But even when actors jointly have all the information they need to make a well-informed decision, they may fail to find a superior alternative. This hidden profile paradigm would cause misrepresentations of crisis situations and lead to ineffective response. In this research-in-progress paper, we present the first stage of our experimental study on group decision making in humanitarian disaster response, in which we want to find out how teams can be supported to share more information, make better sense, and ultimately avoid such misrepresentations of crisis situations. First results reveal that humanitarian disaster response teams are able to share significantly more information if they would make use of more advanced information and communication systems. However, none of the teams in the experimental setup managed to find the optimal decision.
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Chris Murphy, Doug Phair, & Courtney Aquilina. (2005). A prototype multi-modal decision support architecture. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 135–137). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: This paper presents the design of a decision support tool for crisis response applications. We propose a system to replace emergency contact calling trees with a multi-modal personnel contact architecture. This architecture consists of a centralized notification framework using existing enterprise e-mail, Web site, instant messaging, and voice over IP (VOIP) infrastructure. Response and audit data is collected and stored for analysis, and can be reviewed using a variety of methods in real time. Details of our prototype implementation are discussed. Specifically, we address multi-modal communication techniques and their benefits, enterprise deployment challenges, and opportunities for further research.
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Thomas Münzberg, Tim Müller, Stella Möhrle, Tina Comes, & Frank Schultmann. (2013). An integrated multi-criteria approach on vulnerability analysis in the context of load reduction. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 251–260). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Load reduction is an emergency measure to stabilize an electrical grid by decoupling some supply areas to balance the demand and supply of electricity in power grids. In the decoupled areas, power outages may cause important consequences, which may propagate further via the network of interdependent infrastructures. Therefore, support is needed to choose the regions to be decoupled. This paper describes an approach to analyze the risk triggered by load reduction that can be used for disaster management and load reduction scheme optimization. The core of our work is the vulnerability assessment that takes into account the consequences of load reduction on economy and society. The approach facilitates participatory decision support by making the vulnerability of regions especially in urban transparent.
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Thomas Münzberg, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Schultmann. (2014). A strategy evaluation framework based on dynamic vulnerability assessments. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 45–54). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Assessing a system's vulnerability is a widely used method to estimate the effects of risks. In the past years, increasingly dynamic vulnerability assessments were developed to display changes in vulnerability over time (e.g. in climate change, coastal vulnerability, and flood management). This implies that the dynamic influences of management strategies on vulnerability need to be considered in the selection and implementation of strategies. For this purpose, we present a strategy evaluation framework which is based on dynamic vulnerability assessments. The key contribution reported in this paper is an evaluation framework that considers how well strategies achieve a predefined target level of protection over time. Protection Target Levels are predefined objectives. The framework proposed is inspired by Goal Programming methods and allows distinguishing the relevance of time-dependent achievements by weights. This enables decision-makers to evaluate the overall performance of strategies, to test strategies, and to compare the outcome of strategies.
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Thomas Münzberg, Ulrich Berbner, Tina Comes, Hanno Friedrich, Wendelin Groß, Hans-Christian Pfohl, et al. (2013). Decision support for critical infrastructure disruptions: An integrated approach to secure food supply. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 312–316). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Supplies of food and water are essential in disaster management, particularly in the very early chaotic phases when demand and available resources are highly uncertain, information systems are disrupted, and communication between communities, food suppliers, retail and emergency authorities is difficult. As many actors and organisations are involved in ever more complex food supply chains, cooperation and collaboration are vital for efficient and effective disaster management. To support decision-makers facing these problems, this paper introduces a scenario-based approach that integrates simulation of disruptions in food supply chains, and qualitative expert assessment to develop consistent scenarios that show the consequences of different strategies. To choose the best individual measures for all relevant actors and to compare it with the best overall strategy approaches from multi-criteria decision analysis are used.
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Ahmed Nagy, Lusine Mkrtchyan, & Klaas Van Der Meer. (2013). A CBRN detection framework using fuzzy logic. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 266–271). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Identifying a chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear incident (CBRN) is a challenge. Evidence and health symptoms resulting from CBRN malevolent incident overlap with other normal non malevolent human activities. However, proper fusion of symptoms and evidence can aid in drawing conclusions with a certain degree of credibility about the existence of an incident. There are two types of incidents directly observable, overt, or indirectly observable, covert, which can be detected from the symptoms and consequences. This paper describes a framework for identifying a CBRN incident from available evidence using a fuzzy belief degree distributed approach. We present two approaches for evidence fusion and aggregation; the first, two level cumulative belief degree (CBD) while the second is ordered weighted aggregation of belief degrees (OWA). The evaluation approach undertaken shows the potential value of the two techniques.
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Teresa Onorati, Alessio Malizia, Paloma Díaz, & Ignacio Aedo. (2010). Interaction design for web emergency management information systems. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The interaction design for web emergency management information systems (WEMIS) is an important aspect to keep in mind due to the criticality of the domain: decision making, updating available resources, defining a task list, trusting in proposed information. A common interaction design strategy for WEMIS seems to be needed but currently there are few references in literature. Our aim is to contribute to this lack with a set of interactive principles for WEMIS. From the emergency point of view, existing WEMIS have been analyzed to extract common features and to design interaction principles for emergency. Furthermore, we studied design principles extracted from the Turoff's model relating them to emergency phases and features. In particular, in this paper, we choose to follow the current trend in the definition of emergency life cycles. In our approach, referring to general policies in literature, the emergency management process is divided into two different sub cycles: back-end and front-end. From the interaction point of view, a formalization process based on the interactive PIE model has been defined. The result we propose here is a set of design principles for supporting interactive properties for WEMIS.
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Oduor Erick Nelson Otieno, Anna Gryszkiewicz, Nihal Siriwardanegea, & Fang Chen. (2010). Concept for intelligent integrated system for crisis management. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In this document, we describe the need for providing a uniform common picture that is missing in several crisis management decision support tools. Through research, we have reviewed some existing crisis management support systems in use and noted key user requirements that these tools are missing. A significant point of this research is to stress the importance of developing a decision support system that would improve the way an ideal support system would collect, analyze and disseminate necessary information to a crisis management decision maker. We also note the importance of ensuring that such a tool presents information to its user over a user friendly interface. The structure thus developed should be a standalone application that could be incorporated into existing platforms (Rinkineva, 2004) such as cell phones, PDAs and laptops.
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Samuel Otim. (2006). A case-based knowledge management system for disaster management: Fundamental concepts. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 598–604). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Computer-based knowledge management systems are vital for disaster detection, response planning, and management. These systems aid in early warning, and provide decision support for disaster response and recovery management. Managing past knowledge for reuse can expedite the process of disaster response and recovery management. While early warning systems predict some disasters with remarkable accuracy, there is a paucity of knowledge management systems for disaster response and management. This paper outlines a case-based reasoning (CBR) knowledge management system that in effect, is a model of human reasoning since it is based upon the idea that people frequently rely on previous problem-solving experiences when solving new problems. A CBR knowledge management system results in efficient and effective disaster response and management.
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Gertraud Peinel, Thomas Rose, & Elmar Berger. (2007). Process-oriented risk management for smaller municipalities. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 405–410). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Project ERMA (Electronic Risk Management Architecture) develops a platform for risk managers that can be cus-tomised to individual risk management scenarios in order to meet the needs of small and medium-sized municipali-ties. Due to their limited resources, smaller boroughs call for flexible and intelligent platforms that can be tailored to a set of risk management scenarios that might range from natural disasters to man-made hazards. This paper will promote a process-oriented stance for supporting emergency management operations. The scope of services ranges from decision support via key-indicators with attached process management system up-to alarming services that incorporate citizen relationship management services to keep the citizen well informed and use him for the capture of additional information.
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Stephen Potter, Yannis Kalfoglou, Harith Alani, Michelle Bachler, Simon Buckingham Shum, Rodrigo Carvalho, et al. (2007). The application of advanced knowledge technologies for emergency response. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 361–368). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Making sense of the current state of an emergency and of the response to it is vital if appropriate decisions are to be made. This task involves the acquisition, interpretation and management of information. In this paper we present an integrated system that applies recent ideas and technologies from the fields of Artificial Intelligence and semantic web research to support sense-and decision-making at the tactical response level, and demonstrate it with reference to a hypothetical large-scale emergency scenario. We offer no end-user evaluation of this system; rather, we intend that it should serve as a visionary demonstration of the potential of these technologies for emergency response.
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Wolfgang Raskob, Florian Gering, & Valentin Bertsch. (2009). Approaches to visualisation of uncertainties to decision makers in an operational decision support system. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Decision making in case of any emergency is associated with uncertainty of input data, model data and changing preferences in the decision making process. Uncertainty handling was from the beginning an integral part of the decision support system RODOS for the off-site emergency management following nuclear or radiological emergencies. What is missing so far is the visualisation of the uncertainties in the results of the model calculations. In this paper we present the first attempt to visualise uncertain information in the early and late phase of the decision making process. For the early phase, the area of sheltering was selected as example. For the later phase, the results of the evaluation subsystem of RODOS were selected being used for the analysis of remediation measures such as agricultural management options. Both attempts are still under discussion but the presentation of the early phase uncertainty will be realised in the next version.
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Wolfgang Raskob, Valentin Bertsch, Jutta Geldermann., Sandra Baig, & Florian Gering. (2005). Demands to and experience with the decision support system rodos for off-site emergency management in the decision making process in Germany. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 269–278). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Emergency situations, man-made as well as natural, can differ considerably. However, they share the characteristic of sudden onset, involve complex decisions and necessitate a coherent and effective emergency management. In the event of a nuclear or radiological accident in Europe, the real-time on-line decision support system RODOS provides support from the early phase through to the medium and long-term phases. This paper describes the demands to a Decision Support System from a user-centred view as well as experiences gained from conducting moderated decision making workshops based on a hypothetical accident scenario focusing on the evaluation of long-term countermeasures using the simulation capabilities of the RODOS system and its recently integrated evaluation component Web-HIPRE, a tool for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
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Felix Riedel, & Fernando Chaves. (2012). Workflows and decision tables for flexible early warning systems. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Today's decision support systems for crisis management are mostly designed to support a fixed process that integrates a given set of information sources. This means policies that govern the crisis management process are tightly integrated with the implementation, which makes it hard to adapt the system to changing requirements. Modern systems are expected to be adaptable and need to evolve along with the availability of new information sources and changing business processes. Previous work suggested using workflow systems to manage crisis management processes. Current approaches that use workflow systems are not end-user friendly or not flexible enough. In this paper we present our approach that combines workflows and decision tables for creating more flexible decision support systems. While workflows are used to orchestrate services and implement information logistics in the decision support processes, embedded rule sets are used to provide flexibility and adaptability of workflows. The rule sets are authored using decision tables which are an easy-to-use representation that allows end-users to express rules in an intuitive way. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Anne-Francoise Rutkowski, Willem Van Groenendaal, Bartel A. Van De Walle, & Jan Pol. (2004). Decision support technology to support risk analysis and disaster recovery plan formulation: Towards IT and business continuity. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 127–132). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: The paper presents a four-phase action research project that was (and still is) conducted at the department of Information Management Customer Support and Operations (IM\CS&O) of a large multi-national company. The department is in charge of ICT-service continuity and has to produce ICT recovery plans that are integrated with the organization's overall Business Continuity plan. Interviews, Group Support System (GSS) technologies as well as a risk survey have been used to gather information and identify risks and threats. A systematic quantitative classification, measuring the impact of loss of ICT services on the company's business processes in terms of cost and risk will allow in the near future to utilize an economic decision model to prioritize the core activities of training and implementation of a recovery disaster plan. The research has made clear to the involved protagonists the necessity to share information, to develop awareness, and to formulate a shared recovery disaster plan to ensure ICT/business continuity and/or recovery when ICT disruptions occurs. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.
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João A. Santos, Sara Rodrigues, Neves, Ana Vieira, Conceiçao J. Fortes, Maria Teresa Reis, et al. (2011). MOIA: An integrated decision support tool for port management. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper describes MOIA, a numerical tool that evaluates sea-wave effects on port operations and broadcasts warning messages whenever the safety of such operations are deemed to be at risk. The evaluation of the sea-wave transformation from offshore – where the results of numerical models for sea-wave forecast at a regional level are available – up to the port area is described. Also, the procedures used to evaluate the sea-wave effects on sailing ships, focusing on the amplitude of the vertical movements of a selected point in the ship, are explained. Such procedures are combined and applied to an example where the average downtime for the navigation at four points along the sailing lane is evaluated for the entrance voyages into the port of Praia da Vitória (Azores) of a given ship.
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Jan Maarten Schraagen, Aletta Eikelboom, Kees Van Dongen, & Guido Te Brake. (2005). Experimental evaluation of a critical thinking tool to support decision making in crisis situations. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 181–189). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Building up proper situation awareness is one of the most difficult tasks in the beginning stages of large-scale accidents. As ambiguous information about the events becomes available, decision makers are often tempted to quickly choose a particular story to explain the events. Subsequent information that contradicts the initial story may easily be discarded and cognitive tunnel vision takes over. Our approach, as part of the COMBINED Systems project, is to prevent tunnel vision by providing critical thinking support. In a laboratory experiment with 60 participants, we tested this hypothesis by comparing the Critical Thinking tool with a 'no support' control condition and a 'minimal support' condition. Participants acted as crisis managers determining the likely cause of an accident based on different pieces of information. The results show a positive impact of the tool on both the decision making process and decision making effectiveness.
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Frank Schätter, Sascha Meng, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Schultmann. (2014). A multi-stage scenario construction approach for critical infrastructure protection. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 399–408). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Protecting critical infrastructures (CIs) against external and internal risks in an increasingly uncertain environment is a major challenge. In this paper we present a generic multi-stage scenario construction approach that is applicable to a wide range of decision problems in the field of CI protection. Our approach combines scenario construction and decision support, whereby we explicitly consider the performance of decision options which have been determined for a set of initial scenarios. Because of the iterative character of our approach, consequences of decision options and information updates are evolutionary processed towards advanced scenarios. By disturbing vulnerable or critical parts of CIs, cascading effects between interrelated CIs and the responses to the decision options can be determined. We apply this scenario-construction technique to two civil security research projects. One focuses on protecting food supply chains against disruptions, whereas the other aims at securing public railway transport against terrorist attacks.
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Huizhang Shen, & Jidi Zhao. (2010). Decision-making support based on the combination of CBR and logic reasoning. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In recent years, various crises arise frequently and cause tremendous economic and life losses. Meanwhile, current emergency decision models and decision support systems still need further improvement. This paper first proposes a new emergency decision model based on the combination of a new case retrieval algorithm for Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) and logic reasoning, and then address a sample flood disaster emergency decision process to explain the application of the model in practice.
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