Abstract: Aiming at examining the cascading effects of the failure of Critical Infrastructure (CI), this work-in-progress research introduces an improved System Dynamics model. We represent an improvement over the previous models aimed at studying CIs interdependencies and their cascading effects. Our model builds on earlier models and corrects their flaws. In addition to introducing structural enhancements, the improvements include using unpublished data, a fresh look at a previously collected dataset and employing a new data processing to address and resolve some longstanding issues. The dataset was fed to an optimisation model to produce a new dataset used in our model. The structure of our SD model, its dataset and the data processing techniques we employed to create this dataset are all described in the study. Although the model has passed the fundamental validation criteria, more validation testing and scenario exploration are yet to be conducted.

Abstract: When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment is difficult resulting in poor information quality, indicating information was incorrect, outdated or even unavailable to relief workers. In this paper, we adopt a theory-driven approach to develop a set of information management roles and dynamic capabilities for disaster management. Building on the principles of advance structuring and dynamic adjustment, we develop a set of roles and capabilities, which we illustrate and extend using two field studies in the Netherlands. By studying regional relief workers in action, we found that in tactical disaster response decisionmaking units, several information management roles are not addressed and that information managers are preoccupied with information gathering and reporting, whereas information quality assurance is not on the agenda.

Abstract: Responding to a large-scale disaster such as an earthquake or hurricane is a collective problem. Human agents are increasingly collaborating with non-human agents (autonomous systems) in attempt to respond to a disaster. IntCris is a prototype intended to bring together interaction for human and non-human agents to aid the decision-making process by focusing on how to facilitate the “correct information to the correct agent” problem as well as encouraging new and agile behaviour. We focus on three categories of information: command, report and personal with a formal grammar to accompany the implementation. The requirements for the software were inspired by real life case studies from Hurricane Katrina, the Fukoshima Nuclear Disaster and Hurricane Sandy. The contribution of this work is to advance technology that brings together HAS (human and autonomous system interaction), in addition to enhancing collective intelligence.

Abstract: In the aftermath of disasters, information is of the essence for humanitarian decision makers in the field. Their concrete information needs is highly context-influenced and often they find themselves unable to access the right information at the right time. We propose a novel ICT-based approach to address these information needs more accurately. First, we select a group of in-field decision makers and collect their concrete information needs in the disaster aftermath. We then review to what extent existing data and tools can already address these needs. We conclude that existing solutions fall short in meeting important information needs of the selected group. We describe the design of an information system prototype to address these gaps more accurately. We combine data of the International Aid Transparency Initiative and the Humanitarian Data Exchange to form the data-backend of our system. We describe our implementation approach and evaluation plan.

Abstract: Successful emergency management decision-making during natural hazard events is fundamentally dependent upon individual and team situation awareness (i.e., how selection, interpretation, and understanding of available information defines the problem and identifies solutions) while operating under high time and risk pressures. The development and evolution of SA, and response effectiveness during a crisis, depends upon information and advice from external experts. This advice is characterised by stochastic (system variability) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty, constraining decision-making and blocking or delaying action. How this uncertainty is communicated, and managed, varies throughout the phases of emergency management. Through this 'Insight' paper, we review how people cope with uncertainty, individual and team factors that affect uncertainty communication, and inter-agency methods to enhance communication. We propose communicators move from a one-way dissemination of advice, towards two-way and participatory approaches that identify decision-relevant uncertainty information needs pre-event, for communication efforts to focus on in-event.

Abstract: Like Crisis Management (CM) itself, Visual Analytics (VA) is a multi-disciplinary research area and is potentially useful to analyze and understand the huge amount of multidimensional data produced in a crisis. Our work investigates how researchers and practitioners are using VA in decision-making in CM. This paper firstly reports on a systematic mapping study to analyze the available information visualization tools and their applications in CM. To complement this information, we report on questionnaires and ethnographic studies applied during the large events held in Brazil in recent years. Then, we analyzed existing tools for visualizing crisis information. Lastly, we analyzed the data gathered from interviews with six professional crisis managers. The compiled results show that the full potential of VA is not being applied in the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice. We consider that further researches in the application of VA is required to improve decision-making processes in crisis management.

Abstract: Crisis Management (CM) refers to the ability to deal with crisis tasks in different phases and iterations. People working in a crisis are generally under pressure to make the right decision at the right time. They must process large amounts of data and assimilate the received information in an intuitive way. Visual Analytics (VA) is potentially useful to analyze and understand the huge amount of data in several areas including in a crisis. We propose a model based on VA to support decision-making in CM. The aim of the model is to help visualization designers to create effective VA interfaces, to help crisis managers to make quick and assertive decisions with them. In previous studies, we carried out a survey protocol with a multi-method approach to collect data on crisis related decision-making and analyze all these data qualitatively with formal techniques during the large events held in Brazil in recent years. In this work, we used our previous findings to develop the proposed model. We validated it using the focus group technique. With the new findings, we identified relevant insights on the use of VA for crisis management. We hope that, with these continuous cycles of validation and improvement, the agencies that manage crises might use our model as a reference for building more effective IT decision-making infrastructures based on VA.

Abstract: Organizations affected by a cyber-attack usually rely on external Cyber Incident Response (CIR) consultants to conduct investigations and mitigate the impact. These CIR consultants need to make critical decisions that could have major impact on their clients. This preliminary investigation aims to get a better understanding of CIR decision -making and answers the following questions: (1.) To what extent do experienced CIR consultants use a Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) Making strategy during their work? (2.) What are the implications for cyber crisis management as well as for training and decision -making? To answer these questions, we conducted a literature review and interviewed six experienced CIR consultants using the Critical Decision Method. Our analysis reveals that CIR consultants recognize situations based on past experiences and apply a course of action that has worked effectively in the past. This course of action is mainly aimed at collecting and evaluating more data. This finding differs from other operational domains, such as the military and fire department, where recognition is usually followed immediately by action. For cyber crisis management, this means that crisis management teams should decide to what extent and in what ways they want to mitigate the risk of responding belatedly to cyber events, which could potentially lead to unnecessary data theft and sustained business disruption. Another implication is that crisis management teams should consider whether additional forensic investigations outweigh the expected benefits throughout the response process. For instance, if the likely entry-point of the attacker has been discovered, how much effort should be devoted to exclude other potential entry-points. Reflecting on the status-quo, several implications for training and decision making are provided.

Abstract: Industrial accidents increasingly threaten society and economy; the increasing exposure and vulnerability of our modern interlaced societies contributes to intensifying their impact. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) have a prominent role, since they are vital for the welfare of the population and essential for the economic growth. As hazards are hard to predict, decision-makers need to implement adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve CI resilience. Although CI resilience has attracted increasing attention, empirical studies are rare. Research on the implementation of policies aiming at identifying a clear sequence of measures to improve CI resilience is lacking. Therefore, we present a framework to identify resilience policies across four dimensions (technical, organizational, economic and social) and to define the temporal order in which the policies should be implemented. This research provides a framework grounded in our empirical work. Future work will aim at developing quantitative approaches to complement our results.

Abstract: Previous research claimed that organizational stress, due to task complexity and time pressure, leads to considerably negative effects on the decision-making performance of individuals and organizations. At the same time, intellectual capital (IC), in providing intangible internal and external organizational assets has a positive effect on organizational decision-making performance. This paper develops a structural equation model to analyze the relationships among IC, task complexity, time pressure and decision-making performance. Empirical data are collected from 374 participants, who are from universities, institutes, enterprises, government, with different occupations and expertise. We present two conclusions. First, IC consisting of internal capital, human capital and external capital leads to a reduced complexity of tasks and reduced time pressure and hence reduced organizational stress. Second, reduced organizational stress results in higher levels of performance for organizational decision-making.

Abstract: Crisis detection can help enterprises to make full preparation to respond real crisis, so it is an important field to promote enterprises' competition and keep them develop continuously. Crisis in enterprises may be caused by many factors and most of them are very common and necessary parts in normal operating procedure. This paper takes these parts as crisis signals indicated in many managing books. Group decision-making strategy is put forward to help enterprises to analyze crisis signals based on the characteristics of the decision-making procedure. To get a meaningful and credible result, AHP is used to support the whole procedure. To exhibit the role of managers, system cluster is used to classify experts involved in decision-making procedure. An example to analyze a key engineer's dismissing is given to illustrate the decision-making procedure and to prove the efficiency of this idea and AHP method.

Abstract: Increased information access and more intelligent information systems enable more operators in an organization to autonomously make decisions. These delegated decision-making opportunities play an important role during critical events, as operators -such as emergency teams and responders- can work independently and rely less on a centralized decision-making structure. Moreover, the operators' perceived level of trust increases while also limiting the coordinators' perceived control. In this paper, we examine the influence of such systems on the shift in perceived control and empowerment for both operators and commanders. In our experiments, conducted at the Royal Netherlands Air Force, we found that the introduction of these systems indeed affects perceived control and empowerment, specifically as perceived by the coordinator. These factors will play an important role in the effective use of such systems and their transformative effect on an organization. Especially considering the ongoing technical and organizational developments in crisis information management.

Abstract: Research on decision-making and coordination in critical settings has provided important insights on resources and behaviors that improve emergency response. However, literature often assumes that decision-makers can access information when necessary, while empirical reality suggests that information is not always so easily accessed, but more or less shared between emergency actors. This research in progress aims to investigate how a specific organizational variable, power, influences information sharing behaviors? and its impact on emergency management. This research relies on two field studies to highlight in an inductive fashion a set of hypotheses on power in emergency organizations. We propose axes of investigation that map out ways to further explore the issue of power in emergency settings.