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Christoph Aubrecht, Klaus Steinnocher, & Hermann Huber. (2014). DynaPop – Population distribution dynamics as basis for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 314–318). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In this paper ongoing developments regarding the conceptual setup and subsequent implementation logic of a seamless spatio-temporal population dynamics model are presented. The DynaPop model aims at serving as basic input for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In addition to providing the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics, i.e. the location and number of affected people at different stages during an event, knowledge of spatio-temporal population distribution patterns is also considered crucial for a set of other related aspects in disaster risk and crisis management including evacuation planning and casualty assessment. DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation.
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Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, & Simon French. (2013). Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 307–311). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper outlines an approach to support decision-makers in designing resilient critical infrastructure (CI) networks. As CIs have become increasingly interdependent disruptions can have far-reaching impacts. We focus on the vulnerability of CIs and the socio-economic systems, in which they are embedded, independent from any initial risk event. To determine which disruptions are the most severe and must be avoided, quantitative and qualitative assessments of a disruption's consequences and the perspectives of multiple stakeholders need to be integrated. To this end, we combine the results of consequence models and expert assessments into stress test scenarios, which are evaluated using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques. This approach enables dynamic adaption of the stress tests in the face of a fast changing environment and to take account of better information about interdependencies or changing preferences. This approach helps make trade-offs between costs for resilient CIs and potential losses of disruptions clearly apparent.
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Simon French, & Carmen Niculae. (2004). Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 9–14). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.
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Cynthia Nikolai, Irma Becerra-Fernandez, Troy Johnson, & Greg Madey. (2010). Leveraging WebEOC in support of the Haitian relief effort: Insights and lessons learned. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The magnitude seven earthquake that rocked Haiti has been a devastating disaster for the small country (USGS 2010). They are not alone in this crisis, however. When the earthquake struck, thousands of US citizens responded by donating money, resources, people, and time to aid in the disaster relief. To respond to the incident and to create a secure information-sharing environment, the Florida Miami-Dade County and State Emergency Operations Centers (EOC) were activated. The main information system in use at the Miami-Dade EOC is WebEOC, a web-based crisis information management system that aids in secure coordination and collaboration among EOC staff, liaisons, and emergency managers. As a result of the earthquake response efforts using this system, we have identified seven main insights and lessons learned with respect to crisis information management software. In this paper, we discuss Miami-Dade's role in the Haitian relief efforts and how this lead to these insights and lessons learned.
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Louis-Francis Pau, & Peter Simonsen. (2008). Emergency messaging to general public via public wireless networks. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 3–11). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Warnings to the broad population in an emergency situation, irrespective of location and condition, is a public policy responsibility. Public wireless networks offer now the opportunity to deliver emergency warnings in this way with explanations, because in many countries the mobile penetration rates and coverage are higher than any other access form. The paper summarizes the analysis of the selection process between Short messaging services (SMS) and Cell Broadcast (CB) messaging in the context of Denmark based on end user requirements, stakeholder roles and case-based analysis. It demonstrates the many technical, cost-benefit and other trade-offs needed in supporting the population now with a dependable and wide-spread technology. This research is the basis for a national policy.
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James Fielding Smith, & Teo A. Babun Jr. (2014). The port resiliency program (PReP): Upgrading Latin American and Caribbean ports. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 538–545). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Improving resiliency of airports and seaports can accelerate both humanitarian relief and economic and social recovery in regions struck by natural or manmade disasters. Ports are a critical element of effective disaster response, evacuation, and recovery. They are also essential to social and economic recovery following a disaster, especially on islands dependent on trade and isolated areas such as in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. The Port Resiliency Program (PReP) presents a practical framework to enhance port resiliency and improve evaluation to support continuous improvement. Approaches include analyzing strengths and weaknesses, fostering understanding, communication, and cooperation among stakeholders, caching essential resources ahead of time, building a comprehensive archive of literature, and targeting exercises to close gaps in preparedness.
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Toshihisa Toyoda. (2008). Economic impacts of Kobe Earthquake: A quantitative evaluation after 13 years. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 606–617). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. In order to estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect losses is presented. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. As for indirect flow losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. A careful statistical analysis of indirect losses using the gross regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for longer than 10 years, mounting to some 14 trillion yen (about US$0.13 trillion). Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses.
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Anuradha Venkateswaran, Katrina Simon-Agolory, & Kera Z. Watkins. (2011). Risk analysis for Greene County and Wright Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio: Simulation of riverine flooding using HAZUS-MH. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Greene County in Dayton, OH houses Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB), whose estimated 2009 economic impact within its Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is $5.17 million. Despite its military/strategic importance as the largest base in the U.S. Air Force, literature search did not uncover a published comprehensive risk analysis for WPAFB, or even Greene County, across the entire spectrum of hazards from natural to technological to man-made (including terrorism). This paper presents a summary report on risk determination and economic impact data for Greene County and WPAFB (within Greene County) in the context of riverine flooding, using FEMA's HAZUS-MH tool. It is hoped that the results will further the regional compilation of data and thus prove of use to the local disaster management community while generally growing the overall body of work in risk analysis. Future work aims to expand regional risk determination to other natural disasters and terrorism scenarios.
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Hüseyin Can Ünen. (2012). Developing a framework for a social vulnerability and consequence-based post-disaster behavior analysis methodology. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: The proposed study is expected to focus on the less investigated areas by the previous seismic risk analyses in Turkey. Most of the existing loss assessment methodologies focus on structural damage, infrastructural damage, economic impact, and casualties. However, affected population estimates and development of plans for the immediate needs and recovery requirements of the surviving population are also of equal importance. The proposed framework in this aspect will be utilizing previous social vulnerability and seismic loss assessment studies to develop an analysis methodology for affected population and social response analyses. The methodology is expected to help response planners and decision makers in determining the needs for the surviving population in the recovery process. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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