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Sérgio Freire, Christoph Aubrecht, & Stephanie Wegscheider. (2012). When the tsunami comes to town – Improving evacuation modeling by integrating high-resolution population exposure. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Tsunamis are a major risk for Lisbon (Portugal) coastal areas whose impacts can be extremely high, as confirmed by the past occurrence of major events. For correct risk assessment and awareness and for implementing mitigation measures, detailed simulation of exposure and evacuation is essential. This work uses a spatial modeling approach for estimating residential population distribution and exposure to tsunami flooding by individual building, and for simulating their evacuation travel time considering horizontal and vertical displacement. Results include finer evaluation of exposure to, and evacuation from, a potential tsunami, considering the specific inundation depth and building's height. This more detailed and accurate modeling of exposure to and evacuation from a potential tsunami can benefit risk assessment and contribute to more efficient Crisis Response and Management. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kevin D. Henry, & Tim G. Frazier. (2015). Scenario-Based Modeling of Community Evacuation Vulnerability. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Evacuation models can be used to determine evacuation capacity, by estimating the time required for evacuating populations to leave areas exposed to a hazard. Disaster management practices and evacuation modeling are generally carried out to prepare for ?worst-case? conditions. However, hazard severity is highly variable. Performing evacuation modeling for multiple hazard scenarios may provide flexibility and a comprehensive understanding of evacuation capacity. A case study was undertaken to analyze the merit of scenario-based evacuation modeling. Results demonstrate a difference in clearance time between maximum and historic tsunami scenario modeling. During a smaller-scale event, allowing the maximum scenario population to evacuate can add congestion and inhibit evacuation of at-risk populations. Managing evacuation can improve evacuation efficiency by preventing unneeded congestion. Results show that traditional worst-case-scenario modeling may lead to overestimation of time needed to evacuate. Planning under such a scenario may increase risk to smaller-scale hazards.
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Shengcheng Yuan, Ma Ma, H. Zhang, & Yi Liu. (2013). An urban traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 317–321). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Traffic evacuation is one of the most challenging problems in a mega city due to crowded road conditions. This study focuses on developing a traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. The model basically consists of two modules. The first one is a decision-making support module which runs very fast and provides short-forecast. The second one is a simulation module, which is used for simulating real evacuation process and for overall performance evaluation with vehicle tracking model. The first module can be considered as a “local” module as only partial information, such as traffic information in certain junctions is available. The second module can be considered as a global module which provides traffic directions for junction, and effective using of road-nets. With integration of two modules, overall system optimization may be achieved. Simulation cases are given for model validation and results are satisfied.
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