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Fabian Wucholt, Yeliz Yildirim-Krannig, Mareike Mähler, Uwe Krüger, & Clemens Beckstein. (2011). Cultural analysis and formal standardised language-A mass casualty incident perspective. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Handling highly dynamic scenarios as they arise in mass casualty incident (MCI) situations requires lots of information about the situation and an extremely flexible IT infrastructure that can assist in managing the inci-dent. Normally, rescue workers from different organisational cultures do not communicate across their organisa-tional boundaries, but in an MCI they have to efficiently collaborate in order to successfully manage the inci-dent. In this paper we argue that qualitative cultural analysis can provide important insights into the design of techno-logical systems that are to be deployed in inter-organisational settings like an MCI. We will show how the engi-neering of complex knowledge based systems for such scenarios can profit from the results of such an analysis.
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Fabiana Santos Lima, Bernd Hellingrath, Adam Widera, & Mirian Buss Gonçalves. (2013). A systemic process model for procurement decisions in humanitarian logistics. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 688–692). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: The relief organizations work in volatile environments involving a variety of actors with different skills and knowledge. The service of emergency for victims of natural disasters requires a rapid decision-making. The objective of the approach presented in this paper is to develop a Systemic Process Model (SPM) for procurement decisions in humanitarian logistics. The SPM aims to support procurement tasks of humanitarian organizations during the response phase in disaster relief. The approach provides a decision support tool using an appropriate quantitative model reflecting the specific area of humanitarian logistics processes.
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Fahem Kebair, & Frédéric Serin. (2008). Towards an intelligent system for risk prevention and emergency management. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 526–535). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Making a decision in a changeable and dynamic environment is an arduous task owing to the lack of information, their uncertainties and the unawareness of planners about the future evolution of incidents. The use of a decision support system is an efficient solution for this issue. Such a system can help emergency planners and responders to detect possible emergencies, as well as to suggest and evaluate possible courses of action to deal with the emergency. We are interested in our work to the modelling of a monitoring preventive and emergency management system, wherein we stress the generic aspect. In this paper we propose an agent-based architecture of this system and we describe a first step of our approach which is the modeling of information and their representation using a multiagent system.
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Faisal Luqman, & Martin Griss. (2011). Leveraging mobile context for effective collaboration and task management. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Collaboration and task management is challenging in distributed, dynamically-formed teams, typical in large scale disaster response scenarios. Ineffective collaboration may potentially result in poor performance and loss of life. The increased adoption of sensor rich mobile devices allow for mobile context to be leveraged. In this paper, we present Overseer, an agent-based system that exploits context information from mobile devices to facilitate collaboration and task allocation. We describe how mobile context can be used to create dynamic role-based assignments to enhance collaboration and effective task management.
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Felix Riedel, & Fernando Chaves. (2012). Workflows and decision tables for flexible early warning systems. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Today's decision support systems for crisis management are mostly designed to support a fixed process that integrates a given set of information sources. This means policies that govern the crisis management process are tightly integrated with the implementation, which makes it hard to adapt the system to changing requirements. Modern systems are expected to be adaptable and need to evolve along with the availability of new information sources and changing business processes. Previous work suggested using workflow systems to manage crisis management processes. Current approaches that use workflow systems are not end-user friendly or not flexible enough. In this paper we present our approach that combines workflows and decision tables for creating more flexible decision support systems. While workflows are used to orchestrate services and implement information logistics in the decision support processes, embedded rule sets are used to provide flexibility and adaptability of workflows. The rule sets are authored using decision tables which are an easy-to-use representation that allows end-users to express rules in an intuitive way. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Felix Wex, Guido Schryen, & Dirk Neumann. (2012). Operational emergency response under informational uncertainty: A fuzzy optimization model for scheduling and allocating rescue units. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Coordination deficiencies have been identified after the March 2011 earthquakes in Japan in terms of scheduling and allocation of resources, with time pressure, resource shortages, and especially informational uncertainty being main challenges. We suggest a decision support model that accounts for these challenges by drawing on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy optimization. Based on requirements from practice and the findings of our literature review, the decision model considers the following premises: incidents and rescue units are spatially distributed, rescue units possess specific capabilities, processing is non-preemptive, and informational uncertainty through linguistic assessments is predominant when on-site units vaguely report about incidents and their attributes, or system reports are not exact. We also suggest a Monte Carlo-based heuristic solution procedure and conduct a computational evaluation of different scenarios. We benchmark the results of our heuristic with results yielded through applying a greedy approach. The results indicate that using our Monte Carlo simulation to solve the decision support model inspired by fuzzy set theory can substantially reduce the overall harm. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Felix Wex, Guido Schryen, & Dirk Neumann. (2011). Intelligent decision support for centralized coordination during Emergency Response. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Automated coordination is regarded as a novel approaches in Emergency Response Systems (ERS), and especially resource allocation has been understudied in former research. The contribution of this paper is the introduction of two variants of a novel resource allocation mechanism that provide decision support to the centralized Emergency Operations Center (EOC). Two quantitative models are computationally validated using real-time, data-driven, Monte-Carlo simulations promoting reliable propositions of distributed resource allocations and schedules. Various requirements are derived through a literature analysis. Comparative analyses attest that the Monte-Carlo approach outperforms a well-defined benchmark.
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Fiona McNeill, Andriana Gkaniatsou, & Alan Bundy. (2014). Dynamic data sharing for facilitating communication during emergency responses. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 369–373). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper describes the CHAIn system, which is designed to facilitate data sharing between disparate organisations during emergency response situations by resolving mismatches in their data. It uses structured data matching to reformulate failed queries in cases where these failed because of incompatibilities between the query (derived from the source schema) and the schema of the queried datasource (the target schema). This reformulation is done by developing matches between the source schema and the target schema. These matches are then used to reformulate the query and retrieve responses relevant to those expected by the original query. Despite the growing interest in intelligent query answering, integration of data matching into query answering is novel, and allows users to successfully query datasources even if they do not know how the data in that source is organized, which is often the case during emergency responses. We describe the proof-of-concept system we have developed and an encouraging initial evaluation.
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Flávio E. A. Horita, & João Porto De Albuquerque. (2013). An approach to support decision-making in disaster management based on volunteer geographic information (VGI) and spatial decision support systems (SDSS). In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 301–306). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: The damage caused by recent events in Japan in 2011 and USA in 2012 highlighted the need to adopt measures to increase the resilience of communities against extreme events and disasters. In addition to the conventional and official information that is necessary for adaptation to disasters, recently, common citizens residents in the affected areas also began contributing with voluntary qualified and updated information. In this context, this work-in-progress presents an approach that uses voluntary information – Also known by VGI (Volunteered Geographic Information) – As a data source for Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) in order to assist the decision-making in disaster management. Our approach consists of a framework that integrates voluntary and conventional data, a SDSS and processes and methods for decision-making. As a result, it is expected that this approach will assist official organizations in disaster management by providing mechanisms and information.
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Flávio E. A. Horita, Maria C. Fava, Eduardo M. Mendiondo, Jairo Rotava, Vladimir C. Souza, Jo Ueyama, et al. (2014). AGORA-GeoDash: A geosensor dashboard for real-time flood risk monitoring. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 304–313). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Flood management is an important approach to reduce damage caused by floods. In this context, technological architectures which work in real-time are needed. However, Brazil has faced many structural difficulties in obtaining updated information on the current state of its rivers. To address this problem, this paper outlines a geosensor dashboard called AGORA-GeoDash, which processes data streams from wireless sensor networks and makes them available in the form of a set of performance indicators that are essential to support real-time decision-making in flood risk monitoring. The dashboard was built on open-source frameworks, made use of geoservices that comply with the standards of Open Geospatial Consortium, and established a Wireless Sensor Network which monitors the rivers of São Carlos/SP in Brazil. The analysis of the indicators available in two rainfall events revealed that the dashboard can provide the key information required for the decision-making process involved in flood risk management.
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Franclin Foping, & Ioannis M. Dokas. (2013). A saas-based early warning information fusion system for critical infrastructure safety. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 156–165). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Maintaining the critical infrastructures, such as Drinking Water Treatment Plants (DWTP), transportation, power generation and communications systems, in a safe state is a complex problem. The effective collaboration, as well as the collection aggregation and dissemination of early warning information among the stakeholders of the Safety Management System (SMS) responsible for the safety of these critical infrastructures are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. This paper argues that the Software as a Service (SaaS) deployment model can offer new ways of enhancing the fusion of early warning information during the operation phase of critical infrastructures. It presents the requirements, the architecture and a number of features of a working prototype SaaS-based early warning information fusion system for DWTP safety issues in the Republic of Ireland. It is the first time that a SaaSbased working prototype system is reported of providing early warning information fusion services in the literature.
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Frank Schätter, Sascha Meng, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Schultmann. (2014). A multi-stage scenario construction approach for critical infrastructure protection. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 399–408). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Protecting critical infrastructures (CIs) against external and internal risks in an increasingly uncertain environment is a major challenge. In this paper we present a generic multi-stage scenario construction approach that is applicable to a wide range of decision problems in the field of CI protection. Our approach combines scenario construction and decision support, whereby we explicitly consider the performance of decision options which have been determined for a set of initial scenarios. Because of the iterative character of our approach, consequences of decision options and information updates are evolutionary processed towards advanced scenarios. By disturbing vulnerable or critical parts of CIs, cascading effects between interrelated CIs and the responses to the decision options can be determined. We apply this scenario-construction technique to two civil security research projects. One focuses on protecting food supply chains against disruptions, whereas the other aims at securing public railway transport against terrorist attacks.
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Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, Pierre Couget, & Vincent Chapurlat. (2008). A metamodel and its ontology to guide crisis characterization and its collaborative management. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 189–196). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper presents a research in progress about the French ISyCri project that aims at providing partners involved in crisis management with an agile Mediation Information System (MIS). Not only this MIS shoul support the interoperability of the partners' information systems but it is also dedicated to coordinate their activities through a collaborative process. One of the first and main steps towards such a MIS, is to elaborate a common and sharable reference model built to characterize crisis situations. Such a model is also an input for automated reasoning to elaborate and adapt a crisis solving collaborative process. This article presents the objective of the project, our approach and our first results: a UML metamodel of crisis situation and its corresponding OWL ontology on top of which deductions are possible.
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Frederik Schütte, Rubén Casado, & Emilio Rubiera. (2013). Solving interoperability issues in cross border emergency operations. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 370–375). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper describes the work that is being done within the EU research project DISASTER to solve interoperability issues in cross-border emergency operations by applying a technical solution that is able to create a common operational picture. To that end a twofold solution is proposed: The development of a common and modular ontology shared by all the stakeholders taking into account different countries cultural, linguistic and legal issues. And, from that point, bearing in mind that most legacy EMSs (Emergency Management Systems) rely on Service-Oriented-Architectures (SOA), the implementation of transparent SOA mediation algorithms compliant with current data formats and existing solutions. That way, a mediation solution is provided by the DISASTER Mediator, which plays the role of gateway for each EMS enabling a communication based in Web Services. In order to avoid a misunderstanding of shared information it is necessary to create a solution that offers more than a plain translation of terms but rather a concept mediation so the corresponding user is able to understand the situation in its own framework of reference.
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Fredrik Bergstrand. (2011). Sensemaking in command centre contexts. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper presents descriptive accounts from the work conducted at a Swedish fire and rescue service's command centre during a high risk protest. Sensemaking has been applied as a theoretical lens on the empirical data. Two specific episodes has been selected to demonstrate how the process of sensemaking is manifested in the context of the command centre. The paper also includes implications for design suggesting how information systems for this context should be designed to better support sensemaking.
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Fredrik Bergstrand, & Jonas Landgren. (2009). Information sharing using live video in emergency response work. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper presents findings from a design-oriented study focusing on emergency response work. Traditionally, information technology for emergency response work has included enroute navigation advice, resource management, hazard material databases, property information repositories, and situation reporting using sketching functionality. Now, a new class of information technology has become available, namely mobile live video capabilities. This paper presents initial findings from a study on how mobile live video capabilities could improve information sharing and situation awareness in emergency response work.
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Fredrik Höglund, & Peter Berggren. (2010). Using shared priorities to measure shared situation awareness. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Shared situation awareness is hard to measure, especially in operative environments such as crisis management. In this paper the purpose is to develop a novel method to measure to what extent the team has shared situation awareness that can be used in operations. 20 two person teams participated in a study where a dynamic and evolving tactical decision-making task was solved. Shared situation awareness, shared priorities, and team performance were assessed. The results show that the shared priorities measure in this study did not relate to shared situation awareness. Several methodological concerns was identified which could have affected the results. The measure did relate to subjective ratings of cooperation which is very interesting and it is suggested that the measure captured aspects of teamwork. The shared priorities measure was easy to employ, required little preparation, and is a promising addition to team research.
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Friedemann Wenzel, Jochen Zschau, Michael Kunz, James E. Daniell, Bijan Khazai, & Tina Kunz-Plapp. (2013). Near real-time forensic disaster analysis. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 581–585). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: We introduce the approach of near-real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) as a methodology to reveal key features of ongoing disasters using modern communication and information tools and the methods of loss analysis. The scientific background, the objectives and results from first pilot examples are discussed.
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Gabriel Bartl, Lars Gerhold, & Matthias Wählisch. (2014). Towards a theoretical framework of acceptance for surveillance systems at airports. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 299–303). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In this paper we illustrate (a) the background and goals of the interdisciplinary research project SAFEST and (b) first insights from the socio-scientific part within the project. Technical systems are often established without considering explicitly ethical, legal, and social implications. This frequently leads to a lack of acceptance. This paper aims at compiling an analytical scheme that tries to demonstrate the relevance of the social context for the emergence of different modes of acceptance in reference to surveillance systems at airports. It is intended to guide the technical experts to deal with and reflect acceptance issues in the process of technical development.
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Gabriel Jakobson, Nandan Parameswaran, John Buford, Lundy Lewis, & Pradeep Ray. (2006). Situation-Aware multi-Agent system for disaster relief operations management. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 313–324). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Natural and human-made disasters create unparalleled challenges to Disaster Situation Management (DSM). One of the major weaknesses of the current DSM solutions is the lack of comprehensive understanding of the overall disaster operational situation, and very often making decisions based on a single event. Such weakness is clearly exhibited by the solutions based on the widely used Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) models for building the Muiti-Agent Systems (MAS). In this work we present the adaptation of the AESOP situation management architecture to address the requirements of disaster relief operations. In particular, we extend the existing BDI model with the capability of situation awareness. We describe how the key functions of event collection, situation identification, and situation assessment are implemented in MAS architecture suitable to the characteristics of large-scale disaster recovery. We present the details of a BDI agent in this architecture including a skeleton ontology, and the distributed service architecture of the AESOP platform.
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Gaia Trecarichi, Veronica Rizzi, Lorenzino Vaccari, Maurizio Marchese, & Paolo Besana. (2009). Open Knowledge at work: Exploring centralized and decentralized information gathering in emergency contexts. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Real-world experience teaches us that to manage emergencies, efficient crisis response coordination is crucial. ICT infrastructures are effective in supporting the people involved in such contexts, by supporting effective ways of interaction. They also should provide innovative means of communication and information management. At present, centralized architectures are mostly used for this purpose; however, alternative infrastructures based on the use of distributed information sources, are currently being explored, studied and analyzed. This paper aims at investigating the capability of a novel approach (developed within the European project OpenKnowledge1) to support both centralized and decentralized architectures for information gathering. For this purpose, we developed an agent-based e-Response simulation environment fully integrated with the OpenKnowledge infrastructure and through which existing emergency plans are modelled and simulated. Preliminary results show the OpenKnowledge capability of supporting the two afore-mentioned architectures and, under ideal assumptions, a comparable performance in both cases.
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Gaoussou Camara, Rim Djedidi, Sylvie Despres, & Moussa Lo. (2012). Towards an ontology for an epidemiological monitoring system. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Epidemiological monitoring systems are used to control the evolution of disease spreading and to suggest action plans to prevent identified risks. In this domain, risk prediction is based on quantitative approaches that are hardly usable when data collection is not possible. In this paper, a qualitative approach based on an epidemiological monitoring ontology is proposed. We describe the design of this ontology and show how it fits into classical monitoring systems and helps overcoming limits related to quantitative approaches. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Gary Berg-Cross. (2008). Improving situational ontologies to support adaptive crisis management knowledge architecture. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 537–545). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: There is considerable interest in advance technologies to support crisis and disaster management as they face the challenges of designing, building, and maintaining large-scale distributed systems able to adapt to the dynamics and complexity of crises. Candidate technologies include Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), related Semantic Web technology, agent-based architecture and cognitive architectures. Each embodies some principles of the Adaptive Architecture-including modularity, openness, standards-based development, runtime support and importantly explicitness. However, truly adaptive architectures for crisis management will require some deepening the knowledge architecture's content and not just its representation. Light and more robust ontological models of situations are discussed to show how better formalization of conceptual patterns like “participation” can be developed to support cognitive architectures. The feasibility of an ontological design pattern approach is described as an avenue for future research and development describing specific types of situations.
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Gary Eifried. (2005). A model describing a response to a terrorism incident. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 125–127). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Understanding how the response to an incident of terrorism involving a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) transpires is essential to understanding the necessary flow of information within that response. A model describing incident response functions overlaid on a realistic timeline is presented.
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Gary M. Fetter, Mauro Falasca, Christopher W. Zobel, & Terry R. Rakes. (2010). A multi-stage decision model for debris disposal operations. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: As shown by Hurricane Katrina, disposing of disaster-generated debris can be quite challenging. Extraordinary amounts of debris far exceeding typical annual amounts of solid waste are almost instantaneously deposited across a widespread area. Although the locations and amounts of debris can be easily summarized looking back after recovery activities have been completed, they are uncertain and difficult at best to estimate as debris operations begin to unfold. Further complicating matters is that the capacity of cleanup resources, which is dependent upon available equipment, labor, and subcontractors, can fluctuate during on-going cleanup operations. As a result, debris coordinators often modify initial resource assignments as more accurate debris estimates and more stable resource capacities become known. In this research, we develop a computer-based decision support system that incorporates a multi-stage programming model to assist decision makers with allocating debris cleanup resources immediately following a crisis event and during ongoing operations as debris volumes and resource capacities become known with increasing certainty.
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