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Toshihisa Toyoda. (2008). Economic impacts of Kobe Earthquake: A quantitative evaluation after 13 years. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 606–617). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. In order to estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect losses is presented. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. As for indirect flow losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. A careful statistical analysis of indirect losses using the gross regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for longer than 10 years, mounting to some 14 trillion yen (about US$0.13 trillion). Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses.
Keywords: Civil aviation; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Earthquakes; Information systems; Manufacture; Commercial sector; Conceptual frameworks; Disaster management; Economic impacts; Gross regional products; Manufacturing sector; Quantitative evaluation; Services sectors; Economic and social effects