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Abdelgawad, A. A. (2023). An Updated System Dynamics Model for Analysing the Cascading Effects of Critical Infrastructure Failures. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 595–608). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Aiming at examining the cascading effects of the failure of Critical Infrastructure (CI), this work-in-progress research introduces an improved System Dynamics model. We represent an improvement over the previous models aimed at studying CIs interdependencies and their cascading effects. Our model builds on earlier models and corrects their flaws. In addition to introducing structural enhancements, the improvements include using unpublished data, a fresh look at a previously collected dataset and employing a new data processing to address and resolve some longstanding issues. The dataset was fed to an optimisation model to produce a new dataset used in our model. The structure of our SD model, its dataset and the data processing techniques we employed to create this dataset are all described in the study. Although the model has passed the fundamental validation criteria, more validation testing and scenario exploration are yet to be conducted.
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Carole Adam, & Eric Andonoff. (2019). Vigi Flood: a serious game for understanding the challenges of crisis communication. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Emergency managers receive communication training about the importance of being ?first, right and credible?,
which is not easy. For instance, in October 2018, the Aude department in the South-West of France was hit by
intense rain. Flash floods were hard to forecast and only the ?orange? level of vigilance could be raised initially, but
the population dismissed this very usual warning in that season. The ?red? level was then raised too late, leading
to high criticism. The main problem here is the loss of trust induced by too many ?false alarms?. In this paper
we propose a serious game called VigiFlood for raising awareness in the population about the difficulty of crisis
communication and their own responsibility for reacting to the alerts. The implemented game still has limited
functionality but already shows interesting results in helping the user to visualise and understand the trust dynamics
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Charles Bailly, & Carole Adam. (2017). An interactive simulation for testing communication strategies in bushfires. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 72–84). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Australia is frequently hit by bushfires. In 2009, the “Black Saturday” fires killed 173 people and burnt hectares of bush. As a result, a research commission was created to investigate, and concluded that several aspects could be improved, in particular better understanding of the population actual behaviour, and better communication with them. We argue that agent-based modelling and simulation is a great tool to test possible communication strategies, in order to deduce valuable insight for emergency managers before new fires happen. In this paper, we extend an existing agent-based model of the population behaviour in bushfires. Concretely, we added a communication model based in social sciences, and user interactivity with the model. We present the results of first experiments with dierent communication strategies, providing valuable insight for better communication with the population during such events. This model is still preliminary and will eventually be turned into a serious game.
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Dashley Rouwendal van Schijndel, Audun Stolpe, & Jo Erskine Hannay. (2021). Toward an AI-based external scenario event controller for crisis response simulations. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 106–117). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: There is a need for tool support for structured planning, execution and analysis of simulation-based training for crisisresponse and management. As a central component of an architecture for such tool support, we outline the design ofan AI-based scenario event controller. The event controller is a component that uses machine reasoning to computethe next state in a scenario, given the actions performed in the corresponding simulation (execution of the scenario).Scenarios are specified in Answer Set Programming, which is a logic programming language we use for automatedplanning of training scenarios. A plan encoding in ASP adds expressivity in scenario specification and enablesmachine reasoning. For exercise managers this gives AI-based tool support for before-action and during-actionreviews to optimize learning. In line with Modelling and Simulation as as Service, our approach externalizes eventcontrol from any particular simulation platform. The scenario, and its unfolding in terms of events, is externalizedas a service. This increases interoperability and enables scenarios to be designed and modified readily and rapidlyto adapt to new training requirements.
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Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
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Meshal Alharbi, & Graham Coates. (2019). Assessing Flood Recovery of Small Businesses using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: In developed countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the majority of all businesses, e.g. 99.9% in the UK. Given this significant proportion, any disruption to the operation of SMEs will have a negative impact on a nation?s economy. In the context of flooding, this paper reports on the use of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) to assess SMEs immediate response and short-term recovery. In particular, it focuses on the interactions between manufacturing SMEs and mutual aid partners, and retail SMEs and companies specializing in refurbishing premises. Results show that a manufacturing SME with a mutual aid partner can reduce loss in production by approximately 6% over a 7 working day period. In relation to retail
SMEs, those with employees able to be allocated to refurbish its premises recovered faster than SMEs employing a refurbishment company, potentially one day earlier.
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Stensrud, R., & Valaker, S. (2023). Methods to meet changes in the security environment a proposal of qualitative and quantitative assessment attributes for coordination performance. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 676–691). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: The use of methods to inform changes of command and control has long been important, in particular through empirical surveys and computational simulation. In this article, we focus on a particular type of control: “bump less” time-shift of authority during emergency response where it is not desirable to interrupt task resolution (Dess et al.,1984). As an example we address a particular type of control in a sociotechnical use case, i.e. ensuring coordinated action among human and non-human entities, and specifically use as a case shift of who ensures coordinated action when what entities are participating fluctuate over time, yet there is a need to sustain coordination (e.g. due to criticality of sustained performance). We do some work to detail a sociotechnical control mechanism and we present methods for examining the influence such control may have on performing both planned, prescribed, organizational task work as well as dynamic, non-prescribed tasks (Stanton et al., 2018). We argue that measures of high fidelity, with high specificity, defined before task resolution (feedforward) may be particularly important in prescribed change due to the possibility to define clear goals for coordinating and detailing who holds coordination authority. For dynamic change, on the other hand supporting technology that enable a sensing and processing of feedback the number of agents/entities undergoing change is not predetermined and the change of who is best suited to coordinate authority is less clear. Our theorizing is illustrated by using traditional linear control theory emulating shift of control nuanced by an emergency use case. In conclusion, we suggest future directions for research as well as practical implications.
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Xiaoyan Zhang, Graham Coates, & Xiaoyang Ni. (2017). Agent-based Modelling and Simulation for Lecture Theatre Emergency Evacuation. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 63–71). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: This paper presents an overview of ongoing research into the implementation of an agent-based model aimed at providing decision support for the layout design of lecture theatres and human behavioural management in emergency evacuation. The model enables the spatial layout of lecture theatres to be configured and incorporates agent behaviours at the basic movement and individual level. In terms of individual behaviours, agents can be competitive, cooperative, climb obstacles (e.g. seating and desks) and fall down. Two cases are investigated to evaluate the effects of different exit locations in lecture theatres and competitive behaviour of agents on evacuation efficiency in multiple scenarios.
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