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Christoph Aubrecht, Klaus Steinnocher, & Hermann Huber. (2014). DynaPop – Population distribution dynamics as basis for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 314–318). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In this paper ongoing developments regarding the conceptual setup and subsequent implementation logic of a seamless spatio-temporal population dynamics model are presented. The DynaPop model aims at serving as basic input for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In addition to providing the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics, i.e. the location and number of affected people at different stages during an event, knowledge of spatio-temporal population distribution patterns is also considered crucial for a set of other related aspects in disaster risk and crisis management including evacuation planning and casualty assessment. DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation.
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Sérgio Freire, Daniele Ehrlich, & Stefano Ferri. (2014). Assessing temporal changes in global population exposure and impacts from earthquakes. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 324–328). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: It is frequently conveyed, especially in the media, an idea of “increasing impact of natural hazards” typically attributed to their rising frequency and/or growing vulnerability of populations. However, for certain hazard types, this may be mostly a result of increasing population exposure due to phenomenal global population growth, especially in the most hazardous areas. We investigate temporal changes in potential global population exposure and impacts from earthquakes in the XXth century. Spatial analysis is used to combine historical population distributions with a seismic intensity map. Changes in number of victims were also analyzed, while controlling for the progress in frequency and magnitude of hazard events. There is also a focus on mega-cities and implications of fast urbanization for exposure and risk. Results illustrate the relevance of population growth and exposure for risk assessment and disaster outcome, and underline the need for conducting detailed global mapping of settlements and population distribution.
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Sérgio Freire, & Christoph Aubrecht. (2011). Assessing spatio-temporal population exposure to tsunami hazard in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The coastal region of Lisbon, Portugal, is potentially subject to tsunami hazard. Mapping and assessing tsunami risk requires giving adequate consideration to the population exposure. In the present work we model and map the spatio-temporal distribution of population in the daily cycle and analyze it with a tsunami hazard map to better assess tsunami risk in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. New high-resolution daytime and nighttime population distribution surfaces are developed using 'intelligent dasymetric mapping' to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution. Finally, the population distribution maps are combined with the Tsunami Inundation Susceptibility map to assess potential human exposure to tsunami in daytime and nighttime periods. Results show that a significant amount of population is potentially at risk, and its numbers increase from nighttime to daytime, especially in the zones of high susceptibility.
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Sérgio Freire, Aneta Florczyk, & Martino Pesaresi. (2016). New Multi-temporal Global Population Grids ? Application to Volcanism. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Better and finer global analyses of human exposure and risk of natural disasters require improved geoinformation on population distribution and densities, in particular concerning temporal and spatial resolution and capacity for change assessment. This paper presents the development of new multi-temporal global population grids and illustrates their value in the context of risk analysis by estimating the worldwide distribution of population in relation to recent volcanism. Results indicate that almost 6% of the world?s 2015 population lived within 100 km of a volcano with at least one significant eruption, and more than 12% within 100 km of a Holocene volcano, with human concentrations in this zone increasing since 1990 above the global population change rate. The novel 250-m resolution population grids constitute the new state-of-the-art in terms of global geospatial population data, with the potential to advance modeling and analyses at all stages of the emergency management cycle.
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