Abstract: Assessing a system's vulnerability is a widely used method to estimate the effects of risks. In the past years, increasingly dynamic vulnerability assessments were developed to display changes in vulnerability over time (e.g. in climate change, coastal vulnerability, and flood management). This implies that the dynamic influences of management strategies on vulnerability need to be considered in the selection and implementation of strategies. For this purpose, we present a strategy evaluation framework which is based on dynamic vulnerability assessments. The key contribution reported in this paper is an evaluation framework that considers how well strategies achieve a predefined target level of protection over time. Protection Target Levels are predefined objectives. The framework proposed is inspired by Goal Programming methods and allows distinguishing the relevance of time-dependent achievements by weights. This enables decision-makers to evaluate the overall performance of strategies, to test strategies, and to compare the outcome of strategies.

Abstract: Every day the Fire department of the Netherlands work hard to save people's lives. Therefore, they have been investing in Business Intelligence approaches for several years, to get more information for accident prevention and accident fighting. In this paper, Linked Open Data has been used as a business intelligence approach for the creation of dwelling fire risk profiles based on demographic data. During the research a Proof of Concept showed the appliance of Linked Open Data for this purpose. However the data have some quality mismatches, such as: outdated, accuracy issues and not 100% complete. Evaluation session proofed that the outcomes show similarities with a fire incident map and the gut feeling of several firefighters.

Abstract: Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is a multi-dimensional problem complex requiring knowledge and experience from a wide range of disciplines. It also requires a methodology which can collate and organize this knowledge in an effective, transparent manner. Towards this end, seven specialists from the social, natural and engineering sciences collaborated in a facilitated workshop in order to develop a prototype multi-hazard disaster reduction model. The model, developed with computer-Aided morphological analysis (MA), makes it possible to identify and compare risk reduction strategies, and preparedness and mitigation measures, for different types of hazards. Due to time constraints, the model is neither complete nor accurate-but only represents a proof-of-principle. The workshop was sponsored by the Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Center (EDM) in Kobe, in January, 2005.

Abstract: Agro Terrorism is “a hostile attack, towards an agricultural environment, including infrastructures and processes, in order to significantly damage national and international political interests”. This special session within the early warning track is aimed at reducing agro-terrorism related risks by either means of prevention (intelligence gathering using data mining and chatter mining, for example) or means to response to such an attack by early detection of exotic/foreign pathogenic agents, early prediction of disease dispersion patterns, implementation of biosecurity measures, and the development of future methodologies and techniques related to food defense and post-event response. This paper focuses on intention detection using overt data sources on the World Wide Web as they relate to agro-terrorism threats. The paper focuses on early detection that can lead to prevention of such acts, yet a variety of the techniques presented here are also useful for helping in post-event perpetrators detection. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: What role should operational risk leaders have in the executive suite? This paper argues that, when nervous CEOs ask “What can go wrong? How can we get ahead of the curve?”, they should look to their operational risk leaders. Those leaders oversee corporate and information security as well as business continuity, crisis management and disaster recovery programs inside companies. That makes them ideally qualified to take the process of crisis management, including analysis of aggregate risk across all silos – To the CEO and then into the boardroom when the need arises, before the corporate crisis is full-blown.

Abstract: Critical infrastructures (CIs) in urban areas or municipalities have evolved into strongly interdependent and highly complex networks. To assess risks in this sophisticated environment, classical risk management approaches require extensions to reflect those interdependencies and include the consequences of cascading effects into the assessment. In this paper, we present a concept for a risk model specifically tailored to those requirements of interdependent CIs. We will show how the interdependencies can be reflected in the risk model in a generic way such that the dependencies among CIs on different levels of abstraction can be described. Furthermore, we will highlight how the simulation of cascading effects can be directly integrated to consistently represent the assessment of those effects in the risk model. In this way, the model supports municipalities' decision makers in improving their risk and resilience management of the CIs under their administration.

Abstract: Emergency planning is an ongoing activity in which a multidisciplinary group of experts intermittently collaborate to define the most appropriate response to risks. One of the most important tasks of emergency planning is risk reduction. Such a task compiles the analysis of capabilities to face an emergency, the prioritizing of activities, and the definition of procedures and strategies. It is therefore a reflection process based on exchanging information between planners and exploring alternatives. Despite the exploration of alternatives is an especially relevant activity to design better plans, recent research on computer-mediated collaborative tools for planning do not usually offer support for this activity. Thus, with the purpose of supporting reflection during the development of risk reduction tasks, this paper presents an exploratory design tool that allow planners to assess the space of alternatives and the underlying information related those alternatives. This planning tool will help planners to examine and contextualize information, allowing them to define more suitable response strategies.

Abstract: Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the exceptional circumstances in which crisis organisations operate, and of the commercial structure of modern telecom services. We found that existing risk assessment methods are unsuitable for this problem domain. Hence, crisis organisations do not perform any risk assessment, trust their supplier, or rely on service level agreements, which are not meaningful during crisis situations. We have therefore developed a new risk assessment method, which we call RASTER. We have tested RASTER using a case study at the crisis organisation of a government agency, and improved the method based on the analysis of case results. Our initial validation suggests that the method can yield practical results. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: In recent years governmental actors have become more and more dependent on IT systems for their responsibilities in a crisis situation. To avoid unexpected problems with the dependability of IT systems in the aftermath of a crisis it is important that such risks are identified and that measures can be taken to reduce the dependence on systems that could be unreliable. This paper describes two case studies exploring how Swedish municipalities incorporate IT systems in their emergency planning. The study focuses especially on how different actors within a municipality cooperate to analyse the risks of depending on IT systems in critical situations. The study shows that today there is much room for improvement, especially in the communication between IT personnel and emergency managers. Finally, this paper describes the requirements for a process improvement framework that can assist governmental actors in analysing and improving their dependency on IT systems in emergency management.

Abstract: This paper presents a practical risk analysis method for critical, large-scale IT systems in an organisation. The method is based on reliability block diagram modelling and was adapted to fit the requirements of governmental organisations and to reduce the effort required to capture complex failure behaviour. Through the use of different failure categories the risk analysis can be simplified, the input data becomes easier to estimate and the results are easier to use in an organisational risk and vulnerability analysis. The paper first explicitly describes the different steps of the method and then presents a case study in which the method was applied and evaluated in a real-life setting. The method is meant to help an organisation to communicate internally about the reliability of their critical IT systems and to prioritise proposed improvements to this reliability.

Abstract: In order to conduct empirical casualty modelling in China, Chinese historical earthquake events is the essential basis. However, commonly used casualty databases that focus on Chinese earthquakes and provide comprehensive information rarely exist. Regarding this situation, we derived an earthquake casualty database of Mainland China from authorized Chinese published data sources. The casualty database records 520 earthquake events with magnitude 5.0 and greater where at least one casualty is recorded in the time span from 186 BC through December 2011. Each earthquake case contains information on seismic parameters, deaths tolls, number of heavy injuries and light injuries, as well as areas and population of affected regions from intensity VI to intensity IV. Compared with PAGER-CAT, this casualty database provides 146 unique earthquake events and provides more detailed information on heavy injuries and light injures, as well as areas and exposure population of affected regions. This casualty database is an essential supplement for global casualty databases and provides a basis for earthquake casualty modelling on post-earthquake risk estimation in China.