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Max Wyss. (2006). The kashmir M7.6 shock of 8 october 2005 calibrates estimates of losses in future himalayan earthquakes. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 397–401). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: In an article published in March 2005, we estimated the number of fatalities to be expected in future large earthquakes in the Himalaya (Wyss, 2005). For the scenario called Kashmir, we estimated that 67,000 to 137,000 fatalities should be expected. The M7.6 Kashmir earthquake of 8 October 2005 caused approximately 85,000 fatalities. Thus, one may argue that we forecast this disaster well. However, we assumed M8.1, a depth of 25 km and an epicenter located about 200 km to the SE from the October epicenter. Using the moment tensor solution for the October earthquake with a depth of 12 km for the energy release, we estimate the number of fatalities between 29,000 and 56,000. Thus, a factor of 2 must be applied to obtain the observed number, and the depth of the energy release in the scenario earthquakes should be placed at 12 km, which results in on over-All correction factor of 2.4. Therefore, we correct our estimates for numbers of fatalities in future Himalayan earthquake to range from 100,000 to 500,000, as specified for the locations given in Table 2.