Aamir Mahmood, Konstantinos Koufos, & Krisztina Cziner. (2008). Multicast voice performance within a public safety cell. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 18–24). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In public safety communications the first responders are getting directions about the tactical action plan with multicast voice whereas they can report back to the dispatcher with unicast voice. In this paper, the aim is to find the maximum number of voice calls for situation reporting in the presence of multicast voice for tactical coordination. In order to increase the reliability of our analysis we verify our simulator against a test bed prototype consisting of three 802.11 terminals. The simulation study is applied within a mobile cell. The proposed mobility model applies for initial deployment in emergency scenarios. We investigate the statistical properties of the model by simulations.
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Alessio Malizia, Francisco Astorga-Paliza, Teresa Onorati, Paloma Díaz, & Ignacio Aedo. (2008). Emergency alerts for all: An ontology based approach to improve accessibility in emergency alerting systems. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 197–207). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: When a disaster occurs it is critical that emergency response information systems share a common ontology to support their disaster management alerting functions and notifications. Notifications are critical when an emergency scenario is going to happen (e.g. a typhoon approaching) so it is crucial, for emergency systems, to be able to transmit them to all kinds of recipients. An ontology was developed by investigating different sources: accessibility guidelines, emergency response systems, communication devices and technologies, taking into account the different abilities of people to react to different alarms (e.g. mobile phone vibration as an alarm for deaf people). We think that the proposed ontology addresses the information needs for sharing and integrating emergency notification messages and contents over different emergency response information systems and to be accessible under different conditions and for different kind of users.
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Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Miguel Almeida, & Christoph Aubrecht. (2015). Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability ? High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.
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André Simões, Armanda Rodrigues, Patricia Pires, & Luis Sá. (2011). Evaluating emergency scenarios using historic data: Flood management. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The evaluation of an emergency scenario is often based on the use of simulation models. The specificity of these models involves the need for a complex evaluation of the problem domain, including the physical conditions behind the considered threat. Based on emergency occurrences data, provided by the Portuguese National Civil Protection Authority, we are currently developing a methodology for evaluating a real situation, based on past occurrences. The aim is to develop a platform that will enable the evaluation of a risk scenario based on existing civil protection data. The methodology under development should enable the evaluation of different scenarios based on the collected available data. This will be achieved thanks to the facilitated configuration of several aspects, such as the geographical region and relevant properties of the considered threat. In this paper, we describe the methodology development process and the current state of the platform for risk evaluation.
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Andrea Marrella, Massimo Mecella, & Alessandro Russo. (2011). Collaboration on-the-field: Suggestions and beyond. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In disaster scenarios, emergency operators/first responders need to collaborate in order to reach a common goal. The use of mobile devices and applications in these scenarios is very valuable as they can improve collaboration, coordination, and communication amongst team members. But there are also risks involved while using these mobile applications, e.g., decreasing of performance. Most of the tasks are highly critical and time demanding, e.g., saving minutes could result in saving people's life. Therefore, it is unacceptable to use systems that lack proper interaction principles. In this paper, we provide some suggestions, in the form of lessons learned and/or hints for possible future research activities, on how to effectively support on-the-field collaboration of emergency operators. Such suggestions are based on the authors' experience in a recently concluded successful research project on the use of mobile devices for supporting first responders.
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Beate Rottkemper, & Kathrin Fischer. (2013). Decision making in humanitarian logistics – A multi-objective optimization model for relocating relief goods during disaster recovery operations. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 647–657). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Disaster recovery operations rarely proceed smoothly and disruptions often require the redistribution of relief items. Such a redistribution has to be carried out taking into account both the current disruption and the uncertainty regarding possible future incidents in the respective area. As decisions have to be made fast in humanitarian operations, extensive optimization runs cannot be conducted in such a situation. Nevertheless, sensible decisions should be made to ensure an efficient redistribution, considering not only satisfaction of needs but also operational costs, as the budget is usually scarce in the recovery phase of a disaster. In this work, different scenarios are generated and then solved with a multiobjective optimization model to explore possible developments. By evaluating the results of these scenarios, decision rules are identified which can support the decision maker in the actual disaster situation in making fast, but nevertheless well-founded, decisions.
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Bruno B. Lage, Victor A. Bañuls, & Marcos R. S. Borges. (2013). Supporting course of actions development in emergency preparedness through cross-impact analysis. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 714–723). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Emergency plans are developed to serve as a basis for response actions required in real situations. However, plan development is not an easy task and usually relies on complex processes. Due to the uncertainty of emergencies, one of the most challenging tasks is the development of possible courses of action. To deal with this uncertainty, we propose the use of scenario techniques for the definition of courses of action. Specifically, we adopt the use of CIA-ISM scenario technique for structuring the chain of events that can occur in a crisis that would support planning teams to develop courses of action. A practical application of the methodology has been successfully conducted by an emergency planning team in Brazil. The practical application of the CIA-ISM process was supported by a software artifact called CAEPlan. Lessons learned about the empirical application of both the methodology and the software artifact are presented.
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Chao Sun, Fushen Zhang, Shaobo Zhong, & Quanyi Huang. (2015). Expression and Deduction of emergency scenario based on scenario element model. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: In the context of an era filled with frequent occurrence of emergencies, it is urgent to carry out effective treatment. The existing studies focus their research on general rule of emergency evolution, ignoring the consideration of concrete composition of scenario, whilethe formulation of contingency plan based on the real evolution process of the emergency is rare. In this paper, the basic model of scenario elements is proposed firstly. Next, from the perspective of evolution and disposal of emergency, the framework of scenario for emergencies and emergency disposal is put forward, which paves the way for depiction and scenario analysis of emergency. Finally, this paper takes the stampede as an example, dividing the scenario of emergency and its components, namely scenario elements, and representing the evolution scenario of stampede by scenario elements model. Our method takes advantage of scenario elements model to provide support for the formulation and evaluation of emergency exercise.
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Cláudio Sapateiro, & Pedro Antunes. (2009). An emergency response model toward situational awareness improvement. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: When facing emergency scenarios, several contingent factors may strongly condition the pre-defined response procedures. The proposed approach takes the perspective that an emergency response tool may guide the response effort. The tool adopts a conceptual model grounded on existing situation awareness models and research work done with High Reliability Organizations. The model structures the emergency management process in a set of dimensions that should be collaboratively correlated by the involved participants in order to mitigate the disruptive situation. An instantiation of the proposed approach is also described in the paper, focusing on IT service desk teams addressing emergency incidents that may compromise business continuity.
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Daniel Lichte, Dustin Witte, & Kai-Dietrich Wolf. (2020). Comprehensive Security Hazard Analysis for Transmission Systems. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1145–1153). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Critical energy infrastructures are more and more focused upon by politics and society. Modern society depends on these structures, since they enable the steady support of electricity and other types of energy. Deliberately precipitated hazards of certain critical parts of electrical transmission systems (ETS) can lead to catastrophic consequences. Therefore, the analysis of feasible security hazards and resulting consequences for the operation of transmission systems are a concern to transmission system operators (TSO). Alas, there is no common method available that comprehensively identifies these feasible security related scenarios and classifies them according to their overall criticality for the safe operation of the ETS. To tackle this challenge, we propose a comprehensive, yet easy-to-apply method to systematically identify and assess the criticality of security threat scenarios. It is conducted in four steps and consists of a matrix based consistency check of threat scenarios in a defined solution space and a convenient semi-quantitative assessment of a risk factor for the ETS. The approach is illustrated by the simplified generic example of an EETS.
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Dashley Rouwendal van Schijndel, Audun Stolpe, & Jo Erskine Hannay. (2021). Toward an AI-based external scenario event controller for crisis response simulations. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 106–117). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: There is a need for tool support for structured planning, execution and analysis of simulation-based training for crisisresponse and management. As a central component of an architecture for such tool support, we outline the design ofan AI-based scenario event controller. The event controller is a component that uses machine reasoning to computethe next state in a scenario, given the actions performed in the corresponding simulation (execution of the scenario).Scenarios are specified in Answer Set Programming, which is a logic programming language we use for automatedplanning of training scenarios. A plan encoding in ASP adds expressivity in scenario specification and enablesmachine reasoning. For exercise managers this gives AI-based tool support for before-action and during-actionreviews to optimize learning. In line with Modelling and Simulation as as Service, our approach externalizes eventcontrol from any particular simulation platform. The scenario, and its unfolding in terms of events, is externalizedas a service. This increases interoperability and enables scenarios to be designed and modified readily and rapidlyto adapt to new training requirements.
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Douglas Alem, & Alistair Clark. (2015). Insights from two-stage stochastic programming in emergency logistics. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper discusses the practical aspects and resulting insights of the results of a two-stage mathematical network flow model to help make the decisions required to get humanitarian aid quickly to needy recipients as part of a disaster relief operation. The aim of model is to plan where to best place aid inventory in preparation for possible disasters, and to make fast decisions about how best to channel aid to recipients as fast as possible. Humanitarian supply chains differ from commercial supply chains in their greater urgency of response and in the poor quality of data and increased uncertainty about important inputs such as transportation resources, aid availability, and the suddenness and degree of “demand”. The context is usually more chaotic with poor information feedback and a multiplicity of decision-makers in different aid organizations. The model attempts to handle this complexity by incorporating practical decisions, such as pre-allocation of emergency goods, transportation policy, fleet management and procurement, in an uncertainty environment featured by a scenario-based approach. Preliminary results based on the floods and landslides disaster of the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, point to how to cope with these challenges by using the mathematical model.
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Edjossan-Sossou, A., Selouane, K., Sayah, M. A., Ouabou, M., Vignote, C., Capitaine, M., et al. (2023). An innovative scenario-based modeling tool for the management of resilient water resources. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 808–821). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: As freshwater availability for domestic and agro-industrial uses is highly sensitive to climate change, there is an urgent need for the management of this critical resource to be resilient, i.e., to cope with and rapidly recover from climate risks. To achieve this resilient goal, decision-makers need to have a comprehensive understanding of (i) the current and future local water resources, (ii) the ways these resources are and will be impacted by climate change, and (iii) the effects their management decisions can have. In this paper, we present an innovative scenario based modeling tool that help decision-makers make the most appropriate decision towards managing water resources: the Resilience Performance Assessment (RPA). This GIS-based decision support tool illustrates the current and future effects of climate change on local water resources and simulates the outcomes of different water resources management strategies. The RPA helps guide decision-makers towards the implementation of context specific adaptation strategies.
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Erik A.M. Borglund, & Lena-Maria Öberg. (2014). Creation of an exercise scenario: A collaborative design effort. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 488–492). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: To increase the preparedness Crisis response and management authorities carry out various forms of exercises. This article is based upon a three year long project named Gaining security symbiosis (GSS). The project was aiming to increase the collaboration between crisis actors in the Swedish-Norway border region through exercises. We argue that creation of scenarios is a design challenge. In the GSS project, the exercises are built upon designed scenarios, which should make the exercise realistic and make the trainee train the expected. We propose a scenario design method that is built upon an iterative approach and that includes collaboration with the actors that are involved in the exercise. The method also includes a set of characteristics that could be used to evaluate the events of the scenario. The method have been developed and refined during the project and show some promising result. There is however a need for future research when it comes to further development and evaluation of the proposed design method.
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Fabian Wucholt, Yeliz Yildirim-Krannig, Mareike Mähler, Uwe Krüger, & Clemens Beckstein. (2011). Cultural analysis and formal standardised language-A mass casualty incident perspective. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Handling highly dynamic scenarios as they arise in mass casualty incident (MCI) situations requires lots of information about the situation and an extremely flexible IT infrastructure that can assist in managing the inci-dent. Normally, rescue workers from different organisational cultures do not communicate across their organisa-tional boundaries, but in an MCI they have to efficiently collaborate in order to successfully manage the inci-dent. In this paper we argue that qualitative cultural analysis can provide important insights into the design of techno-logical systems that are to be deployed in inter-organisational settings like an MCI. We will show how the engi-neering of complex knowledge based systems for such scenarios can profit from the results of such an analysis.
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Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
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Frank Schätter, Sascha Meng, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Schultmann. (2014). A multi-stage scenario construction approach for critical infrastructure protection. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 399–408). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Protecting critical infrastructures (CIs) against external and internal risks in an increasingly uncertain environment is a major challenge. In this paper we present a generic multi-stage scenario construction approach that is applicable to a wide range of decision problems in the field of CI protection. Our approach combines scenario construction and decision support, whereby we explicitly consider the performance of decision options which have been determined for a set of initial scenarios. Because of the iterative character of our approach, consequences of decision options and information updates are evolutionary processed towards advanced scenarios. By disturbing vulnerable or critical parts of CIs, cascading effects between interrelated CIs and the responses to the decision options can be determined. We apply this scenario-construction technique to two civil security research projects. One focuses on protecting food supply chains against disruptions, whereas the other aims at securing public railway transport against terrorist attacks.
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FREALLE Noémie, TENA-CHOLLET Florian, & SAUVAGNARGUES Sophie. (2017). The key role of animation in the execution of crisis management exercises. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 916–928). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: The organizers of crisis management exercises want scenario credible and pedagogical from the beginning until the end. For this reason, they call on an animation team that can use different communication channels. The aim of this article is to understand the different types of animation by analyzing the professional experience of the facilitators and the type of casting that can be done. Finally, a definition of four levels of animation is proposed. These levels are associated with different types of messages and rhythm settings. The main objective is to improve the execution of the scenario during a crisis management training.
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George H. Bressler, Murray E. Jennex, & Eric G. Frost. (2012). X24 Mexico: Stronger together. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Can populations self-organize a crisis response? This is a work in progress report on Exercise 24, X24, Mexico, a follow up to the first two exercises, X24 and X24 Europe The X24 exercises used a variety of free and low-cost social media and web 2.0 tools to organize, plan, and manage local and international expertise and organizations in the response to a preset disaster scenario. The first X24 focused on Southern California, while the second X24, X24 Europe, focused on the Balkan area of Eastern Europe. These exercises involved over 12,500 participants for X24 while X24 Europe had over 49,000 participants. This paper presents an overview of the recently completed X24 Mexico exercise, as well as the preliminary results. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Gerhard Wickler, Austin Tate, & Stephen Potter. (2007). Integrating discrete event and process-level simulation for flexible training in the I-X framework. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 355–359). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to describe I-Sim, a simulation tool that is a fully integrated part of the underlying agent framework, I-X. I-Sim controls a discrete event simulator, based on the same activity model that is shared between all I-X components, and multiple process-level simulators that model the continuous change caused by actions that are considered as primitives by the rest of the system. The primary purpose of this tool is to support instructors during exercises that are used for training in emergency response. The main advantage the I-Sim tool gives the instructors is flexibility, allowing them to orchestrate and modify existing training scenarios on the fly, adapting them to trainees' needs as required.
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Ignacio Aedo, Paloma Díaz, Victor A. Bañuls, José H. Canós-Cerdá, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2011). Information technologies for emergency planning and training. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Crucial to improving the management of emergency situations is the definition of suitable Emergency Plans and training of participants in the application of such plans. In order to design a good Emergency Plan, experts from different areas need to work collaboratively to identify all the events and the relationships among such events. The main purpose of this project is to study different information technology techniques that can be used in the elaboration of and training for Emergency Plans, based on the use of scenarios. The use of such techniques will support collaborative development of Emergency Plans, the use of rich formats that provide different perspectives on a plan, the exportation and sharing of plans in order to increase their evolution and improvement, the instruction of participants, as well as better interaction, participation and exchange of knowledge. Key aspects of the plans for this recently begun project are described in this paper.
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Jacob L. Graham, & Mark B. Stephens. (2018). Analytic Decision Gaming – A Tool to Develop Crisis Response and Clinical Reasoning. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 60–68). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Emerging threats provide motivation to develop new methods for preparing the next generation of crisis responders. Bayesian theory shifts reasoning toward a probabilistic, epistemic paradigm, giving rise to Evans' revised heuristic-analytic theory. Researchers at The Pennsylvania State University use scenario-based training and the analytic decision game (ADG) to blend and implement these processes as foundational pedagogy for engaging, educating and training medical students as crisis responders and critical thinkers. The ADG scenarios vary by content and level of expertise, lending themselves readily adaptable to both crisis response preparation and the development of clinical reasoning. The ADG creates a virtual crisis requiring participants to engage in scenario management as role-players. For the past two years, medical students from the Penn State College of Medicine, in their first year of training, have participated in the ADG Lights Out scenario, testing community preparation and resilience after a wide-spread and months-long power outage.
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Jacqueline Floch, Michael Angermann, Edel Jennings, & Mark Roddy. (2012). Exploring cooperating smart spaces for efficient collaboration in disaster management. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: This paper discusses the applicability of Cooperating Smart Spaces in the disaster management realm and their potential to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of rescue relief teams. The Cooperating Smart Space is a novel concept that combines and extends pervasive computing and social computing to support smart space management and community collaboration. Based on an analysis of current practice, we illustrate how the concept can be exploited in the assessment of a disaster scenario in order to improve information management, collaboration between expert teams and cooperation with online volunteers outside of the disaster zone. We present the results of an initial user evaluation by disaster management experts and conclude with important implications for the design of a Cooperating Smart Space platform. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Jane Barnett, William Wong, David Westley, Rick Adderley, & Michelle Smith. (2011). Startle points: A proposed framework for identifying situational cues, and developing realistic emergency training scenarios. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Real-world crises are not prescriptive and may contain unexpected events, described here as startle points. Including these events in emergency training simulator scenarios is crucial in order to prepare for startle points that may arise in the real world. Startle points occur when individuals who assess and monitor emergency scenarios, are suddenly faced with an unexpected event, and are unsure how to proceed. This paper offers a non-empirical framework that explores how cues generated by startle points affect decision making. Future research will use the framework to explore how experts and novices experience, and then adapt to startle points, as a function of decision mode, situation awareness, and emotional arousal. The resulting data can then be used to identify cues surrounding startle points and as a consequence, create dynamic scenarios for online training simulators so that individuals can prepare and adapt to them, and transfer acquired skills to real-world emergencies.
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Jill L. Drury, Loretta More, Mark Pfaff, & Gary L. Klein. (2009). A principled method of scenario design for testing emergency response decision-making. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: We are investigating decision aids that present potential courses of action available to emergency responders. To determine whether these aids improve decision quality, however, we first developed test scenarios that were challenging in well-understood ways to ensure testing under the full breadth of representative decision-making situations. We devised a three-step method of developing scenarios: define the decision space, determine the cost components of each decision's potential consequences based on the principles of Robust Decision Making, then choose conflicting pairs of cost components (e.g., a small fire, implying low property damage, in a densely inhabited area, which implies high personal injury). In a validation of this approach, experiment participants made decisions faster in non-ambiguous cases versus cases that included this principled introduction of ambiguity. Our Principled Ambiguity Method of scenario design is also appropriate for other domains as long as they can be analyzed in terms of costs of decision alternatives.
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