Jutta Hild, Jonathan Ott, Yvonne Fischer, & Christian Glökler. (2010). Markov based decision support for cost-optimal response in security management. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In this contribution, we introduce a prototype of a decision support tool for cost-optimal response in security management. The threat situation of a closed infrastructure, exposed to multiple threats, and the corresponding response actions are modeled by a continuous-time Markov decision process (CMDP). Since the CMDP cannot be solved exactly for large infrastructures, the response actions are determined from a heuristic, based on an index rule. The decision support tool's user interface displays the infrastructure's current threat state and proposes the heuristic response actions to the decision maker. In this way, global situation awareness can be enhanced and the decision maker is able to initiate an almost cost-optimal response action in short time.
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Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, & Murray Turoff. (2015). A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.
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