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Nuno Afonso, & M. Luísa Sousa. (2011). Seismic scenario simulations using a GIS Web Service. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Throughout its history, Portugal Mainland and Azores Archipelago have suffered the catastrophic effects of earthquakes originating significant damages in buildings and human losses. Being aware of Portuguese seismic risk, civil protection authorities promoted some studies leading to the development of a seismic scenario simulation tool, applicable to some Mainland Portuguese regions. This paper describes recent improvements in the seismic scenario simulation tool, named LNECloss, and illustrates its applications to the evaluation of building damages and social losses, due to plausible seismic scenarios affecting Portugal. Some development requirements were identified in LNECloss simulator, namely making it available as a service on the Web, providing a stand alone tool, with no need of a geographic information desktop environment, although with the GIS capabilities of mapping and synthesis of the seismic scenario effects. In conclusion, the developed GIS Web Service offers a useful tool for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning and management.
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Rouba Iskandar, Julie Dugdale, Elise Beck, & Cécile Cornou. (2021). PEERS: An integrated agent-based framework for simulating pedestrians' earthquake evacuation. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 86–96). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Traditional seismic risk assessment approaches focus on assessing the damages to the urban fabric and the resultant socio-economic consequences, without adequately incorporating the social component of risk. However, the human behavior is essential for anticipating the impacts of an earthquake, and should be included in quantitative risk assessment studies. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework for simulating pedestrians' evacuation in an urban environment during and in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. The model is applied to Beirut, Lebanon and integrates geo-spatial, socio-demographic, and quantitative behavioral data corresponding to the study area. Several scenarios are proposed to be explored using this model in order to identify the influence of relevant model parameters. These experiments could contribute to the development of improved of emergency management plans and prevention strategies.
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Max Wyss. (2006). The kashmir M7.6 shock of 8 october 2005 calibrates estimates of losses in future himalayan earthquakes. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 397–401). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: In an article published in March 2005, we estimated the number of fatalities to be expected in future large earthquakes in the Himalaya (Wyss, 2005). For the scenario called Kashmir, we estimated that 67,000 to 137,000 fatalities should be expected. The M7.6 Kashmir earthquake of 8 October 2005 caused approximately 85,000 fatalities. Thus, one may argue that we forecast this disaster well. However, we assumed M8.1, a depth of 25 km and an epicenter located about 200 km to the SE from the October epicenter. Using the moment tensor solution for the October earthquake with a depth of 12 km for the energy release, we estimate the number of fatalities between 29,000 and 56,000. Thus, a factor of 2 must be applied to obtain the observed number, and the depth of the energy release in the scenario earthquakes should be placed at 12 km, which results in on over-All correction factor of 2.4. Therefore, we correct our estimates for numbers of fatalities in future Himalayan earthquake to range from 100,000 to 500,000, as specified for the locations given in Table 2.
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