Abstract: This paper aims to (1) evaluate the disaster mitigation effects of improvement projects in a certain area and (2) provide a basis for strategic planning to promote further improvements. Specifically, we decompose local improvements in the analyzed area into multiple scenarios and examine their effects and issues. First, we describe the “large earthquake disaster simulator,” which estimates property damage and human casualties in a large earthquake. Then, the Kyojima area of Sumida-Ku, Tokyo, is selected as the analyzed area. We decompose the improvement projects implemented during 2006 – 2016 and prepare six scenarios. Finally, a simulation analysis is conducted. We demonstrate that fire spread could be effectively blocked by (1) ensuring sufficient road width and (2) identifying the critical buildings in terms of fire spread mitigation and making them fireproof.

Abstract: Society's welfare is very dependent on the effective performance of Critical Infrastructure (CI). Nowadays, CI constitutes a network of interconnected and interdependent entities. This means that a serious event in one CI can originate cascading events in the rest, leading to a serious crisis. As a consequence, Crisis Management (CM) and Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) should converge and integrate their findings, providing a more unified approach. One relevant issue when developing integrated CM/CIP research is what type of unit of analysis should be used, as it conditions the research objectives and questions. This paper presents an analysis of three different units of analysis used in CM research, focusing on the research objectives and questions used in them. These three different units of analysis have been used in a European CIP research project where three simulation models have been developed based on these three units of analysis.

Abstract: Command and Control systems (C2) need to be highly usable to efficiently support communication during crisis situations. Short-term usability evaluations are typically carried out because of the cost and time advantage. However, even the most realistic evaluations (simulations) do not reflect the real issues encountered “in the wild”, such as the operators' stress or the multiple foci of attention. In this paper we carry out an experiment to measure the changes in usability of a C2 system between a short-term simulation and a long-term “in the wild” evaluation. We demonstrate that short-term usability measurements can differ significantly from long-term “in the wild” ones. Our results indicate that a different approach to usability assessment is needed when dealing with critical systems, that takes into account the temporal horizon and assesses the system in real-life conditions.

Abstract: Bushfires cause widespread devastation in Australia, one of the most fire-prone countries on earth. Bushfire seasons are also becoming longer and outbreaks of severe bushfires are occurring more often. This creates the problem of having more people at risk in very diverse areas resulting in more difficult mass evacuations over time. The Barwon Otway region in Victoria’s Surf Coast Shire is one such area with evacuation challenges due to its limited routes in and out of coastal areas and its massive population surges during the tourist season and holiday periods. The increasing gravity of the bushfire threat to the region has brought about the Great Ocean Road Decision Support System (GOR-DSS) project, and the subsequent development of a disaster evacuation tool to support emergency management organisations assess evacuation and risk mitigation options. This paper describes the design and development of SEEKER (Simulations of Emergency Evacuations for Knowledge, Education and Response). The SEEKER tool adds another level of intelligence to the evacuation response by incorporating agent-based modelling and allows emergency management agencies to design and run evacuation scenarios and analyse the risk posed by the fire to the population and road network. Furthermore, SEEKER can be used to develop multiple evacuation scenarios to investigate and compare the effectiveness of each emergency evacuation plan. This paper also discusses the application of SEEKER in a case study, community engagement, and training.

Abstract: During the earthquake rescue, rapidly locating the trapped person is a critical issue to reduce casualties. Compared with the ground search after the earthquake, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) life detection is not only more expeditious but also safer. For shortening the mission completion time of UAV, we propose the coupling method of Dijkstra's algorithm and simulated annealing (SA) algorithm to optimize the search path. Concisely, the mathematical model is further abstracted as the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) and the shortest loop can be obtained by SA algorithm. The real geo-environment of Jiuzhaigou and the actual large-scale rescue scenarios are taken into consideration. Setting six key search areas as our life detection objects, the UAV 3D path simulation is conducted with MATLAB, which achieves the obstacle avoidance. Our UAV path planning method can significantly speed up the search process and save more people in the post-disaster search.

Abstract: Human behaviour is influenced by many psychological factors such as emotions, whose role is already widely recognised. Another important factor, and all the more so during disasters where time pressure and stress constrain reasoning, are cognitive biases. In this paper, we present a short overview of the literature on cognitive biases and show how some of these biases are relevant in a particular disaster, the 2009 bushfires in the South-East of Australia. We provide a preliminary formalisation of these cognitive biases in BDI (beliefs, desires, intentions) agents, with the goal of integrating such agents into agent-based models to get more realistic behaviour. We argue that taking such “irrational” behaviours into account in simulation is crucial in order to produce valid results that can be used by emergency managers to better understand the behaviour of the population in future bushfires.

Abstract: All phases of emergency management activities – that we will reference hereafter as eResponse activities – depend on data from a variety of sources and involve a range of different organizations and teams at various administrative levels with their own systems and services. The existence of numerous and different actors, policies, procedures, data standards and systems results in coordination problems with respect to data analysis, information delivery and resource management.. In this paper we present a novel approach based on interaction models distributed through a peer to peer infrastructure and we show how it can be applied in the context of crisis management to support coalition formation and process coordination in open environments. In particular, a prototype eResponse simulation system – built on a P2P infrastructure – has been developed to execute interaction models describing common coordination tasks in emergency response domain. Preliminary evaluation of the proposed framework demonstrates its capability to support such eResponse tasks.

Abstract: The Caribbean island of Dominica is at constant risk of being hit by tropical storms during the hurricane season.
Therefore, Dominica and areas in similar situations need to raise their resilience to natural hazards. The potential
consequences of climate change intensify this risk. After a hurricane hit, repair of damage to buildings and
infrastructure can take several months. As hurricane frequency is increasing and time between hurricanes
fluctuates, modeling sequences of hurricane events can help to determine different evacuation strategies. This
paper introduces an agent-based model, simulating two hurricane events in one season. The prototype simulates
the movement of evacuees over a road network and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Initial results show
marked differences between road movements of evacuees during a second evacuation. Although shifts in the
average shelter occupation are small (up to 2%) for our case study, this can indicate that adjustments to shelter
capacities are necessary.

Abstract: The work of first responders is marked by unpredictable situations, quick decisions and peak performance. Gathering all important information related to an emergency situation forms the basis for a meaningful and purposeful planning and action. For example during an accident scene the execution of complex individual orders is crucial. The many rescue facilities, rescue vehicles, and first responders needed lead to complex workflows. Real-life exercises are necessary to train controllers and first responders in handling these special situations, but are difficult and costly to organize. This paper gives a short overview of such an exercise and draws a rough practitioner-based vision of a potential simulation-based interactive system that could support exercise leaders and decision makers towards an effective utilization of real-life exercise data.

Abstract: In most nations, continued concern exists regarding the potential for acts of terrorism. Healthcare providers, specifically those in Emergency Medicine, will find themselves in the forefront of responding to such events. Training for Emergency Preparedness for all potential hazards is critical. Many approaches to training in individual for All Hazard Preparedness exist. The authors describe a multifaceted approach to training for All Hazards Preparedness and planning for terrorism. The approach includes classroom exercises designed specifically at understanding hazardous material threats, high fidelity patient simulation, strategic management simulation, and simulated care exercises in a non-hospital based emergency department facility. The authors believe that this multifaceted training will provide the broadest most potentially useful training and evaluation for emergency providers to ensure optimal response in times of any and all future terrorist attacks.

Abstract: Disaster exercises are intended to improve disaster responses effectiveness. Exercises exist in a wide variety, ranging from table-top scenarios to full-scale disaster simulations, offering participants different learning experiences. However these exercises can be overwhelming to newcomers, especially when involving large scale simulations, reducing the effectiveness of the learning experience. In order to make the learning experiences more effective to newcomers, researchers or professionals, a new exercise is proposed. This exercise, designed as a serious game, provides a new way to introduce people to the field of disaster management in general and information management in particular. The first version of the game was played during the 2012 ISCRAM summer school where it yielded positive reactions from both novice participants and experienced professionals.

Abstract: This paper explores the design of training environments in which emergency response professionals can use information technologies to train for responding to unplanned-for situations. This approach – designing for improvisation – is fundamentally different than designing for plan execution. In this paper, we identify three dimensions of this difference and outline a set of research questions that are intended to lead to a better understanding of the role of improvisation in emergency response, as well as how it can be trained for and supported. Both questions are intertwined, since without a firm understanding of how improvisation occurs it is difficult to train for and support it. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.