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Sérgio Freire, Aneta Florczyk, & Martino Pesaresi. (2016). New Multi-temporal Global Population Grids ? Application to Volcanism. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Better and finer global analyses of human exposure and risk of natural disasters require improved geoinformation on population distribution and densities, in particular concerning temporal and spatial resolution and capacity for change assessment. This paper presents the development of new multi-temporal global population grids and illustrates their value in the context of risk analysis by estimating the worldwide distribution of population in relation to recent volcanism. Results indicate that almost 6% of the world?s 2015 population lived within 100 km of a volcano with at least one significant eruption, and more than 12% within 100 km of a Holocene volcano, with human concentrations in this zone increasing since 1990 above the global population change rate. The novel 250-m resolution population grids constitute the new state-of-the-art in terms of global geospatial population data, with the potential to advance modeling and analyses at all stages of the emergency management cycle.
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Sérgio Freire, Aneta Florczyk, & Stefano Ferri. (2015). Modeling Day- and Nighttime Population Exposure at High Resolution: Application to Volcanic Risk Assessment in Campi Flegrei. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Improving analyses of population exposure to potential natural hazards, especially sudden ones, requires more detailed geodemographic data. Availability of such information for large areas is limited by specific database requirements and their cost.
This paper introduces and tests a new approach for refining spatio-temporal population distribution at high resolution by combining diverse geoinformation layers. Its value is demonstrated in the context of disaster risk analysis and emergency management by using the data in a real volcanic risk scenario in Campi Flegrei, located within the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. Results show that there is significant variation in exposure from nighttime to daytime in the study area.
The proposed modeling approach can be applied and customized for other metropolitan areas, ultimately benefiting disaster risk assessment and mitigation.
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