Abstract: Real time loss estimates within one to two hours after major earthquakes are becoming useful for disaster managers and rescue teams to respond rapidly and at an optimal level. Tests show that the accuracy is low, but major disasters can be reliably distinguished from inconsequential earthquakes. Many technical and organizational aspects of these estimates can and should be improved. An analysis of what magnitude of disaster is likely to occur, if a major earthquake should occur near a megacity in a developing country shows that much work needs to be done to mitigate the risk, and that the global community is ill prepared to deal with such large disasters.
