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A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management
Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga
Victor A. Bañuls
Murray Turoff
L. Palen
M. Buscher
T. Comes
A. Hughes
This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.
urn:ISBN:9788271177881
openurl:?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fidl.iscram.org%2F&genre=proceeding&title=A%20Scenario-based%20approach%20for%20analyzing%20complex%20cascading%20effects%20in%20Operational%20Risk%20Management&stitle=ISCRAM%202015&issn=2411-3387&isbn=9788271177881&date=2015&aulast=Miguel%20Ramirez%20de%20la%20Huerga&au=Victor%20A.%20Ba%F1uls&au=Murray%20Turoff&pub=University%20of%20Agder%20%28UiA%29&place=Kristiansand%2C%20Norway&sid=refbase%3AISCRAM
url:http://idl.iscram.org/show.php?record=1280
citekey:MiguelRamirezdelaHuerga_etal2015
citation:Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, & Murray Turoff. (2015). A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
2015
ConferencePaper
text
Cross Impact Analysis
Emergency Management
Industrial Safety and Security Management
Interpretative Structural Modeling
Operational Risk Management
file:http://idl.iscram.org/files/miguelramirezdelahuerga/2015/1280_MiguelRamirezdelaHuerga_etal2015.pdf
University of Agder (UiA)
English
2411-3387
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
2015
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