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Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts
Florian Brauner
Julia Maertens
Holger Bracker
Ompe Aimé Mudimu
Alex Lechleuthner
L. Palen
M. Buscher
T. Comes
A. Hughes
Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
urn:ISBN:9788271177881
openurl:?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fidl.iscram.org%2F&genre=conference&title=Determination%20of%20the%20effectiveness%20of%20security%20measures%20for%20low%20probability%20but%20high%20consequence%20events%3A%20A%20comparison%20of%20multi-agent-simulation%20%26%20process%20modelling%20by%20experts&stitle=ISCRAM%202015&issn=2411-3387&isbn=9788271177881&date=2015&aulast=Florian%20Brauner&au=Julia%20Maertens&au=Holger%20Bracker&au=Ompe%20Aim%E9%20Mudimu&au=Alex%20Lechleuthner&pub=University%20of%20Agder%20%28UiA%29&place=Kristiansand%2C%20Norway&sid=refbase%3AISCRAM
url:http://idl.iscram.org/show.php?record=1322
citekey:FlorianBrauner_etal2015
citation:Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
2015
ConferenceProceedings
text
Decision Support
Efficient Strategy Planning
Modelling and Simulation
Multi-Agent-Simulation
Prioritizing security measures
Scenario-based Risk Assessment Method
file:http://idl.iscram.org/files/florianbrauner/2015/1322_FlorianBrauner_etal2015.pdf
University of Agder (UiA)
English
2411-3387
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
2015
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