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Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts
Florian Brauner
author
Julia Maertens
author
Holger Bracker
author
Ompe Aimé Mudimu
author
Alex Lechleuthner
author
2015
University of Agder (UiA)
Kristiansand, Norway
English
Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
Decision Support
Efficient Strategy Planning
Modelling and Simulation
Multi-Agent-Simulation
Prioritizing security measures
Scenario-based Risk Assessment Method
exported from refbase (http://idl.iscram.org/show.php?record=1322), last updated on Mon, 09 Nov 2015 13:04:03 +0100
text
http://idl.iscram.org/files/florianbrauner/2015/1322_FlorianBrauner_etal2015.pdf
FlorianBrauner_etal2015
L. Palen
editor
M. Buscher
editor
T. Comes
editor
A. Hughes
editor
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
conference publication
9788271177881
2411-3387
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