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A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts
Simone De Kleermaeker
author
Jan Verkade
author
2013
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie
KIT; Baden-Baden
English
Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined.
Artificial intelligence
Decision support systems
Forecasting
Hydrology
Information systems
Uncertainty analysis
Water management
Decision support system (dss)
Hydrological forecast
Management decisions
Multidimensional problems
Predictive uncertainty
Probabilistic forecasts
Probability forecasts
Risk-based decisions
Decision making
exported from refbase (http://idl.iscram.org/show.php?record=432), last updated on Sun, 09 Aug 2015 05:41:03 +0200
text
http://idl.iscram.org/files/dekleermaeker/2013/432_DeKleermaeker+Verkade2013.pdf
SimoneDeKleermaeker+JanVerkade2013
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
ISCRAM 2013
T. Comes
F
Fiedrich
editor
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
2013
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie
KIT; Baden-Baden
conference publication
290
295
9783923704804
2411-3387
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