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Nuno Afonso, & M. Luísa Sousa. (2011). Seismic scenario simulations using a GIS Web Service. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Throughout its history, Portugal Mainland and Azores Archipelago have suffered the catastrophic effects of earthquakes originating significant damages in buildings and human losses. Being aware of Portuguese seismic risk, civil protection authorities promoted some studies leading to the development of a seismic scenario simulation tool, applicable to some Mainland Portuguese regions. This paper describes recent improvements in the seismic scenario simulation tool, named LNECloss, and illustrates its applications to the evaluation of building damages and social losses, due to plausible seismic scenarios affecting Portugal. Some development requirements were identified in LNECloss simulator, namely making it available as a service on the Web, providing a stand alone tool, with no need of a geographic information desktop environment, although with the GIS capabilities of mapping and synthesis of the seismic scenario effects. In conclusion, the developed GIS Web Service offers a useful tool for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning and management.
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Ajay Kumar, & Simeon Vidolov. (2016). Humanitarian Effectiveness: Reconsidering the Ethics of Community Engagement and the Role of Technology. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: This position paper discusses the ongoing debate on the topic of humanitarian effectiveness and highlights the need to look at the structuring of the humanitarian system from an ethical point of view. The paper makes the argument that any community engagement with the affected population is a matter of ethics and dignity of those needs to be considered as a central focus to the discussion. The paper also discusses how the humanitarian system as a set of technology, tools & practises focusses on efficiency, and overshadows the issues of care by objectifying and turning the affected population into mere numbers. We discuss that technology and organisations are inter-twined and such a discussion of technology cannot be contemplated without considering the traditional institutional practises as a whole.
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Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Miguel Almeida, & Christoph Aubrecht. (2015). Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability ? High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.
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Anying Chen, Guofeng Su, & Manchun Liang. (2019). Simulation of Crowd Response During Emergency Considering People's Rational and Irrational Thinking. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Human beings have been facing numerous emergencies which could threaten their property or even their lives in all ages. In order to learn how people respond to the emergencies like earthquakes and fire disasters, a two-stage simulation considering people?s rational thinking and irrational thinking was conducted. Results show that people?s irrational thinking, like the herd effect, could exaggerate people?s behavior of conformity, and it changes the spatial features that stronger herd effect leads to higher cohesion level. It is also worth mentioning that crowd response of condition of smaller population is harder to predict because of its instability, and the response of the very first part of people who make decisions could make great changes to the whole crowd?s response. These results could give some enlightenment on the evacuation instruction during emergencies and future research works.
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Christoph Aubrecht, Klaus Steinnocher, & Hermann Huber. (2014). DynaPop – Population distribution dynamics as basis for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 314–318). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In this paper ongoing developments regarding the conceptual setup and subsequent implementation logic of a seamless spatio-temporal population dynamics model are presented. The DynaPop model aims at serving as basic input for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In addition to providing the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics, i.e. the location and number of affected people at different stages during an event, knowledge of spatio-temporal population distribution patterns is also considered crucial for a set of other related aspects in disaster risk and crisis management including evacuation planning and casualty assessment. DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation.
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Axel Dierich, Katerina Tzavella, Neysa Jacqueline Setiadi, Alexander Fekete, & Florian Neisser. (2019). Enhanced Crisis-Preparation of Critical Infrastructures through a Participatory Qualitative-Quantitative Interdependency Analysis Approach. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures are aggravated by cascading effects due to interdependencies between
different infrastructure systems and with emergency management. Findings of the German, BMBF-funded
research project ?CIRMin? highlight needs for concrete assessments of such interdependencies. Driven by
challenges of limited data and knowledge accessibility, the developed approach integrates qualitative
information from expert interviews and discussions with quantitative, place-based analyses in three selected
German cities and an adjacent county.
This paper particularly discusses how the mixed methods approach has been operationalized. Based on
anonymized findings, it provides a comprehensive guidance to interdependency analysis, from survey and
categorization of system elements and interrelations, their possible mutual impacts, to zooming into selected
dependencies through GIS mapping. This facilitates reliably assessing the need for maintenance of critical
functionalities in crisis situations, available resources, auxiliary powers, and optimization of response time.
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Anthony Charles, Matthieu Lauras, & Rolando Tomasini. (2009). Learning from previous humanitarian operations, a business process reengineering approach. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Uncertainty and risks are part of humanitarians' daily routine. Most of the time, infrastructures are damaged or non-existent, the political climate is highly volatile, communication means are insufficient, and so on. Therefore, humanitarian organizations often have to find original methods to implement their supply chains. They may also face recurrent problems, that requires them to change the way they operate. And yet, as they lack the time and resources to reflect on the lessons learnt, most of their best practices and issues are neither captured nor communicated. The aim of the study is thus to propose a framework to capitalize humanitarians' knowledge and know-how, to analyze both gaps and best practices and learn from one operation to another. To this end, we propose a framework derived from traditional Enterprise Modelling tools, adapted to fit relief chains' specificities. Field applications are then given to illustrate our approach and its beneficial effects.
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Rui Chen, Raghav H. Rao, Raj Sharman, Shambhu J Upadhyaya, & Catherine Cook-Cottone. (2010). Examination of emergency response from knowledge and psychology perspectives. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This research-in-progress examines the roles of technology and human systems in supporting emergency response management through the dual perspectives of knowledge and psychology. Task critical knowledge is linked to organizational effectiveness in delivering business value and psychological factors characterize the unique challenges of an emergency context. This exploratory research is among the first to develop a theoretical model based on these two important yet understudied theoretical aspects. The article contributes to the research development in emergency response information systems and sheds light on the organizational response management practice.
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Tina Comes, Frank Schätter, & Frank Schultmann. (2013). Building robust supply networks for effective and efficient disaster response. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 230–240). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: The effective and efficient distribution of relief goods is a key challenge in disaster management. Typically, adhoc supply networks (SNs) need to be built, in which various actors with different interests collaborate. Although information is sparse and highly uncertain, time for SN design is short, and important strategic decisions (e.g., location of facilities), whose revision requires investing substantial time, effort and resources, must be made promptly. This paper presents an iterative approach for the design of robust SNs that combines (i) an optimisation model to identify promising alternatives to be analysed in detail, (ii) a scenario-based approach to analyse the weaknesses of these alternatives and generate alternative solutions for comparison and benchmarking, and (iii) a decision support module for detailed comparisons and consensus building. By following the iterative approach, successively robust SNs are created to enable effective and efficient disaster response. We illustrate our approach by an example from the Haiti 2010 earthquake.
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Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, & Simon French. (2013). Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 307–311). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper outlines an approach to support decision-makers in designing resilient critical infrastructure (CI) networks. As CIs have become increasingly interdependent disruptions can have far-reaching impacts. We focus on the vulnerability of CIs and the socio-economic systems, in which they are embedded, independent from any initial risk event. To determine which disruptions are the most severe and must be avoided, quantitative and qualitative assessments of a disruption's consequences and the perspectives of multiple stakeholders need to be integrated. To this end, we combine the results of consequence models and expert assessments into stress test scenarios, which are evaluated using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques. This approach enables dynamic adaption of the stress tests in the face of a fast changing environment and to take account of better information about interdependencies or changing preferences. This approach helps make trade-offs between costs for resilient CIs and potential losses of disruptions clearly apparent.
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David Paulus, Kenny Meesters, Gerdien de Vries, & Bartel Van de Walle. (2019). The reciprocity of data integration in disaster risk analysis. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Humanitarian organizations are increasingly challenged by the amount of data available to drive their decisions. Useful data can come from many sources, exists in different formats, and merging it into a basis for analysis and planning often exceeds organizations? capacities and resources. At the same time, affected communities? participation in decision making processes is often hindered by a lack of information and data literacy capacities within the communities. We describe a participatory disaster risk analysis project in the central Philippines where the community and a humanitarian NGO worked towards a joint understanding of disaster risks and coping capacities through data integration and IT-supported analysis. We present findings from workshops, focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews, showing the reciprocal effects of the collaborative work. While the community valued the systematically gathered and structured evidence that supported their own risk perceptions and advocacy efforts, the humanitarian NGO revisited established work practices for data collection for analysis and planning.
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Valerio De Rubeis, Paola Sbarra, Diego Sorrentino, & Patrizia Tosi. (2009). Web based macroseismic survey: Fast information exchange and elaboration of seismic intensity effects in Italy. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: A renewed method of macroseismic survey, based on voluntary collaboration through Internet, is running at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) since June 2007. The macroseismic questionnaire is addressed to a single non-specialist person; reported effects are statistically analyzed to extrapolate Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg and European Macroseismic Scale intensity referred to that observer. Maps of macroseismic intensity are displayed online in almost real time and are continuously updated. The aim of the questionnaire is to evaluate seismic effects as felt by the compiler. The final result is the definition of a particular intensity degree, with the evaluation of the associated uncertainty. Results of medium-low magnitude earthquakes are here presented showing the ability of the method in giving fast and interesting results. Effects reported in questionnaires coming from towns are analyzed in deep and assigned intensities are compared with those derived from traditional macroseismic survey, showing the reliability of webbased method.
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Ur?ka Demsar, Olga Patenková, & Kirsi Virrantaus. (2007). Centrality measures and vulnerability of spatial networks. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 201–209). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Effective management of infrastructural networks in the case of a crisis requires a prior analysis of the vulnerability of spatial networks and identification of critical locations where an interdiction would cause most damage and disruption. This paper presents a preliminary study into how a graph theoretic structural analysis could be used for this purpose. Centrality measures are combined with a dual graph modelling approach in order to identify critical locations in a spatial network. The results of a case study on a street network of a small area in the city of Helsinki indicate that 'betweenness' is the most promising centrality measure for this purpose. Other measures and properties of graphs are under consideration for eventually developing a risk model not only for one but for a group of co-located spatial networks.
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S.H.M. Fakhruddin. (2006). Community based cost effective early warning dissemination network (EWDN). In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 50–51). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Natural disasters are frequent in Bengladesh. Because Bengladesh has a fragile economy that is mostly dependent on agriculture, these events can be disastrous to the economy and people of the country. Adequate warnings to the community and institutions can mitigate the deleterious effects. This paper presents a model for an effective disaster warning and dissemination system (EWDN) that can provide timely and accurate alerts of natural disasters thus reducing loss of life, property and other risks.
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Simon French, & Carmen Niculae. (2004). Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 9–14). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.
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Jean-François Gagnon, François Couderc, Martin Rivest, Simon Banbury, & Sébastien Tremblay. (2013). Using SYnRGY to support design and validation studies of emergency management solutions. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 512–516). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Emergency management situations are highly complex and require the collaboration of multiple parties for adequate responses to incidents. The design and validation of effective emergency response systems is critical in order to improve the overall effectiveness of teams tasked to manage emergency situations. We report ongoing work whose objective is to increase the efficiency of emergency response solutions through iterative cycles of human in-the-loop simulation, modeling, and adaptation. Ultimately, this cycle could either be achieved offline for complex adaptation (e.g., development of a novel interface), or online to provide timely and accurate decision support during an emergency management event. The method is made possible by achieving a high degree of realism and experimental control through the use of an innovative emergency management simulation platform called SYnRGY.,Emergency Management, Emergency Response Systems, Simulation, System Design, Validation.
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Gonzalez, J. J., & Eden, C. (2023). Devising Mitigation Strategies With Stakeholders Against Systemic Risks in a Pandemic. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 1000–1013). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Understanding and managing systemic risk has huge importance for disaster risk reduction in our globally connected world. The COVID-19 pandemic is a prominent case for the global impact of systemic risk. Did so the added urgency of the pandemic systemic risk trigger such paradigm shift? The use of qualitative modelling of systemic risk has progressed the field, particularly when policy makers need support urgently and want to utilize a range of interdisciplinary expertise. We have extended to disaster risk reduction a method for causal mapping for problem solving and strategy development targeting complex project management. Our approach delivers useful, useable, and used mitigation to systemic risk in a pandemic using participatory modelling with practitioners, domain experts and power-brokers.
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Norman Groner, & Charles Jennings. (2012). Describing pipeline emergency response communications using situational awareness informational requirements and an informational flow analyses. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: The Christian Regenhard Center for Emergency Response Studies at John Jay College, CUNY, has begun work on developing best practices for hazardous material pipeline emergency response plans. The approach involves modeling a generic goal-based interagency emergency communications system using a two-step process. First, a situational awareness information requirements analysis will describe the informational requirements essential to an effective emergency response. The requirements analysis involves a goal decomposition approach where the information requirements are related to actionable decisions, goals and emergency response roles. Second, an information flow analysis will informational sources and means to provide required information. The same panel of experts will complete both analyses. Once the communications system is described, a separate Delphi group will use a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to estimate the criticality of the components described in the situational awareness requirements and information flow analyses. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Shubham Gupta, & Craig A. Knoblock. (2010). Building geospatial mashups to visualize information for crisis management. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In time-sensitive environments such as disaster management, decision-making often requires rapidly gathering the information from diverse data sources and then visualizing the collected information to understand it. Thus, it is critical to reduce the overhead in data integration and visualization for efficient decision-making. Geospatial mashups can be an effective solution in such environments by providing an integrated approach to extract, integrate and view diverse information. Currently, mashup building tools exist for creating mashups, but none of them deal with the issue of data visualization. An improper visualization of the data could result in users wasting precious time to understand the data. In this paper, we introduce a programming-by-demonstration approach to data visualization in geospatial mashups that allows the users to customize the data visualization.
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Hayley Watson, Kim Hagen, & Tom Ritchey. (2015). Experiencing GMA as a means of developing a conceptual model of the problem space involving understanding cascading effects in crises. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: A complex challenge facing those involved in crisis management relates to how to manage cascading effects in crisis situations. This paper provides a practice-based insight into the use of General Morphological Analysis (GMA), a non-quantified modelling method that can enable a shared understanding of the various interdependencies involved in cascading crises, by creating a conceptual model of a problem space. This insight paper provides an understanding of the nature of the method, and to reveal the project-related experiences of the facilitator and researchers, thereby contributing to an understanding of the benefits and challenges associated with GMA. Authors find that GMA provided a useful means of a multidisciplinary group developing an initial conceptual model for a complex problem. Whilst a challenging experience, the method will be used for conducting gap analyses at a later stage in the project, thus providing benefits to understanding and managing cascading effects in crises.
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Janine Hellriegel, & Michael Klafft. (2014). A tool for the simulation of alert message propagation in the general population. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 65–69). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Informing and alerting the population in disaster situations is a challenging task. Numerous situational factors have to be considered, as well as the impact of a plethora of communication channels, and multiplication effects in the population. In order to optimize the alerting strategies and enhance alert planning, it would be beneficial to model the dissemination of alerts. In this paper, we present a general overview of an alert dissemination model as well as its prototypical implementation in a simulation software. The software takes situational parameters such as time of day and location into account and can even infer characteristics of the alerting infrastructure from geospatial information.
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Hristo Tanev, Vanni Zavarella, & Josef Steinberger. (2017). Monitoring disaster impact: detecting micro-events and eyewitness reports in mainstream and social media. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 592–602). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: This paper approaches the problem of monitoring the impact of the disasters by mining web sources for the events, caused by these disasters. We refer to these disaster effects as “micro-events”. Micro-events typically following a large disaster include casualties, damage on infrastructures, vehicles, services and resource supply, as well as relief operations. We present natural language grammar learning algorithms which form the basis for building micro-event detection systems from data, with no or minor human intervention, and we show how they can be applied to mainstream news and social media for monitoring disaster impact. We also experimented with applying statistical classifiers to distill, from social media situational updates on disasters, eyewitness reports from directly affected people. Finally, we describe a Twitter mining robot, which integrates some of these monitoring techniques and is intended to serve as a multilingual content hub for enhancing situational awareness.
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Markku T. Häkkinen, & Helen T. Sullivan. (2007). Effective communication of warnings and critical information: Application of accessible design methods to auditory warnings. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 167–171). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: When a system initiates an auditory warning or alert, detection and correct identification of the information by the human recipient can be influenced by a variety of factors. Examples from aviation and public warning demonstrate instances where messages are ignored, not understood or misinterpreted. The reasons why messages may fail can stem from the design of the message itself, environmental conditions, and sensory or cognitive impairments. Based upon experience from several contexts and from the development of assistive technology for people with disabilities, promising design approaches are being explored in research on warning system design. The importance of multimodal warnings, selection of speech type, and internationalization are discussed.
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Jose J. Gonzalez, Colin Eden, Eirik Abildsnes, Martin Hauge, Monica Trentin, Luca Ragazzoni, et al. (2021). Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 581–596). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system and affected all sectors of society, including critical infrastructures. In turn, the impact on society's infrastructures has impacted back on the health care sector. These interactions have created a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences are complex vicious cycles. Traditional risks assessment methods cannot cope with interdependent risks. This paper describes a novel risk systemicity approach to elicit and mitigate the systemic risks of a major pandemic. The approach employed the internet-based software strategyfinder[TM] in workshops to elicit relevant risk information from sixteen appropriately selected experts from the health care sector and major sectors impacted by and impacting back on the health care sector. The risk information was processed with powerful analytical tools of strategyfinder to allow the experts to prioritise portfolios of strategies attacking the vicious cycles.
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Kim Hagen, Meropi Tzanetakis, & Hayley Watson. (2015). Cascading effects in crises: categorisation and analysis of triggers. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The analysis of cascading effects in crisis situations can enhance crisis managers? understanding of how crises unfold and what prominent triggers of cascading effects are. By identifying and categorising triggers of cascading effects, a greater understanding of critical points in crisis situations can be reached, which can contribute to strengthening practices of crisis management, including preparedness and response. Accordingly, this paper provides an insight into triggers of cascading effects, gained through the analysis of six case studies of crises that took place between 1999 and 2014. The analysis produced six categories of triggers, which are discussed here: the disruption of pre-existing relations of information, organisation, and supply, disturbance relations, pre-disaster conditions, and the malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relations. Authors argue that the categorisation of triggers aids anticipating cascading effects, along with predicting risks and planning for potential bottlenecks in crisis management.
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