Abstract: The standard framework for undertaking a risk assessment of a natural hazard involves analyzing the interaction of three components: Hazard data (in the form of maps), the elements exposed to the hazard (exposure), and measures of these elements' vulnerability (understood as the susceptibility to harm or damage). In New Zealand, national flood risk remains unquantified due to the absence of national flood inundation hazard map coverage. In this paper, we develop a methodology that aims to fill this gap by estimating instead the likelihood of a flood insurance claim for a stock of residential buildings. We estimate a non-linear limited-dependent variable model and using a set of fragility functions (also known as damage curves), we calculate the expected monetary losses under plausible flood depth scenarios. The outcome of this research could inform insurers of their potential liabilities and threats to their financial sustainability in the face of flood and storms.