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Simon French, Emma Carter, & Carmen Niculae. (2006). When experts or models disagree. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 547–553). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: In managing crises, decision makers are confronted with a plethora of uncertainties. Many arise because the world is uncertain, particularly in the context of a crisis. But some arise because analyses based upon different, but seemingly equivalent models lead to different forecasts. Other times expert advisors differ in their explanations and predictions of the evolving situation. We argue that when handled correctly such conflict can alert the decision makers to the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the situation and improve their management of the crisis.
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