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Yiting Zheng, Jianguo Chen, Wenjie Tang, & Jiaxiang Xu. (2016). Research on Target Diversity and Risk Analysis Model of Terrorist Attack. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Terrorist attack continues to spread in the world which leads to severe casualties and property losses and poses great pressure to the government. Therefore it is essential to identify the potential targets terrorists may select, assess the risk level and take risk management measures in advance. Aiming to this problem, the paper provides a new analysis method. Firstly it investigates target types terrorists prefer to and target diversity based on the data in Global Terrorist Database ; Then it puts forward the target risk analysis of three-dimensional model which considers the threat probabilityã?the target vulnerability and the consequence severity; Finally, the paper calculates and assesses the risk level using the fuzzy synthesis decision-making method, and two examples are given to prove the feasibility of the model. The result can contribute to target risk analysis and emergency preparedness or management of terrorist attack.
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