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José Miguel Castillo, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Murray Turoff. (2012). Monte Carlo and decision making support in crisis management. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Simulation is an interdisciplinary science applicable to many branches of knowledge. One field in which simulation is relevant is decision making support (DMS), in which we use computers to run models of real or possible scenarios in order to evaluate alternative actions before carrying them out. We will obtain a useful simulation system only when the model (engine of the simulation process) has been made accurately to represent reality. Thus it is necessary to use a methodology that helps us to construct a simulation system. This paper presents some classifications of simulation systems and an introduction to the Monte Carlo method, with the objective of creating a framework of application of this method for the construction of simulation systems for decision making support in crisis management. One area of applicability is scenario-based simulations for training for cross-national teams to cooperate in large scale disasters. The final aim of this research will be the recommendation of standards and methodologies to build simulation systems in crisis management, specifically in decision making support. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Jürgen Moßgraber, Fernando Chaves, Stuart E. Middleton, Zlatko Zlatev, & Ran Tao. (2013). The seven main challenges of an early warning system architecture. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 322–331). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: In this paper, we describe the work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on “Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises”. One of the two decision support use cases in the project deals with Tsunami Early Warning. A modern warning system that follows a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and subsystems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. Working on the architecture of such a system, you need to deal with a lot of current computer science and information technology problems as well as state-of-the-art solutions from the areas of Big Data and Human Sensors. In this paper, we present the seven main challenges we needed to solve and describe the necessary design decisions we made to tackle them.
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Alec Pawling, Tim Schoenharl, Ping Yan, & Greg Madey. (2008). WIPER: An emergency response system. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 702–710). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper describes the WIPER system, a proof of concept prototype, and progress made on its development to date. WIPER is intended to provide emergency response managers with an integrated system that detects possible emergencies from cellular communication data, attempts to predict the development of emergency situations, and provides tools for evaluating possible courses of action in dealing with emergency situations. We describe algorithms for detecting anomalies in streaming cellular communication network data, the implementation of a simulation system that validates running simulations with new real world data, and a web-based front end to the WIPER system. We also discuss issues relating to the real-time aggregation of data from the cellular service provider and its distribution to components of the WIPER system.
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