Ahmed Laatabi, Benoit Gaudou, Chihab Hanachi, Patricia Stolf, & Sébastien Truptil. (2022). Coupling Agent-based Simulation with Optimization to Enhance Population Sheltering. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 116–132). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: Population sheltering is a recurrent problem in crisis management that requires addressing two aspects: evacuating vulnerable people using emergency vehicles and regulating movements of pedestrians and individual vehicles towards shelters. While these aspects have received considerable attention in modeling and simulation literature, very few approaches consider them simultaneously. In this paper, we argue that Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) and Optimization are two complementary approaches that can address the problem of sheltering globally and efficiently and be the basis of coherent frameworks for decision- and policy-making. Optimization can build efficient sheltering plans, and ABMS can explore what-if scenarios and use geospatial data to display results within a realistic environment. To illustrate the benefits of a framework based on this coupling approach, we simulate actual flash flood scenarios using real-world data from the city of Trèbes in South France. Local authorities may use the developed tools to plan and decide on sheltering strategies, notably, when and how to evacuate depending on available time and resources.
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Carole Adam, & Eric Andonoff. (2019). Vigi Flood: a serious game for understanding the challenges of crisis communication. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Emergency managers receive communication training about the importance of being ?first, right and credible?,
which is not easy. For instance, in October 2018, the Aude department in the South-West of France was hit by
intense rain. Flash floods were hard to forecast and only the ?orange? level of vigilance could be raised initially, but
the population dismissed this very usual warning in that season. The ?red? level was then raised too late, leading
to high criticism. The main problem here is the loss of trust induced by too many ?false alarms?. In this paper
we propose a serious game called VigiFlood for raising awareness in the population about the difficulty of crisis
communication and their own responsibility for reacting to the alerts. The implemented game still has limited
functionality but already shows interesting results in helping the user to visualise and understand the trust dynamics
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Charles Bailly, & Carole Adam. (2017). An interactive simulation for testing communication strategies in bushfires. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 72–84). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Australia is frequently hit by bushfires. In 2009, the “Black Saturday” fires killed 173 people and burnt hectares of bush. As a result, a research commission was created to investigate, and concluded that several aspects could be improved, in particular better understanding of the population actual behaviour, and better communication with them. We argue that agent-based modelling and simulation is a great tool to test possible communication strategies, in order to deduce valuable insight for emergency managers before new fires happen. In this paper, we extend an existing agent-based model of the population behaviour in bushfires. Concretely, we added a communication model based in social sciences, and user interactivity with the model. We present the results of first experiments with dierent communication strategies, providing valuable insight for better communication with the population during such events. This model is still preliminary and will eventually be turned into a serious game.
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Christophe Viavattene, Simon McCarthy, Michelle Ferri, Martina Monego, & Maurizio Mazzoleni. (2016). Evaluation of emergency protocols using agent-based approach. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Integrated flood risk management involves a large portfolio of options for mitigating risks that includes hard and soft structural, non-structural, and recovery responses. Non-structural responses include flood warnings, emergency services supported by individuals, collective actions and the use of resistance and resilience measures. Sufficient flood warning time, appropriate actions at desired locations and time are essential for effective and beneficial responses. From this perspective beside the management of the crisis itself, the level of preparedness including the evaluation of plans involving such responses (e.g. emergency protocols) also needs to be sufficient and, thus in the context of various event scenarios.
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Eric Daudé, Kevin Chapuis, Clément Caron, Alexis Drogoul, Benoit Gaudou, Sebastien Rey-Coyrehourq, et al. (2019). ESCAPE: Exploring by Simulation Cities Awareness on Population Evacuation. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Partial or total horizontal evacuation of populations in urban areas is an important protection measure against a natural or technological risk. However, casualties during massive displacement in a context of stress and in a potentially degraded environment may be high due to non-compliance with instructions, accidents, traffic jams, incivilities, lack of preparation of civil security or increased exposure to hazards. Working in evacuation plans is therefore fundamental in avoiding casualties caused by improvisation and in promoting self-evacuation whenever possible. Since it is impossible to re-create the conditions of a crisis on the ground to assess such evacuation plans, there is a need for realistic models in order to evaluate them using simulations. In this paper, we present the ESCAPE software framework that helps in the development of such plans and testing them. In particular, ESCAPE, which uses the GAMA open-source platform as a core component, provides an agent-based simulation tool that supports simulation of the evacuation of a city's population at fine temporal and Geographical scales. The framework was developed such that it works for a wide range of scenarios, both in terms of hazards, geographical configurations, individual behaviors and crisis management. In order to show its adaptability, two applications are presented, one concerning the evacuation of the city of Rouen (France) in the context of a technological hazard and the other pertaining to the evacuation of the district of Hanoi (Vietnam) in the event of floods.
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Rafael A. Gonzalez. (2009). Crisis response simulation combining discrete-event and agent-based modeling. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper presents a crisis response simulation model architecture combining a discrete-event simulation (DES) environment for a crisis scenario with an agent-based model of the response organization. In multi-agent systems (MAS) as a computational organization, agents are modeled and implemented separately from the environmental model. We follow this perspective and submit an architecture in which the environment is modeled as a discreteevent simulation, and the crisis response agents are modeled as a multi-agent system. The simultaneous integration and separation of both models allows for independent modifications of the response organization and the scenario, resulting in a testbed that allows testing different organizations to respond to the same scenario or different emergencies for the same organization. It also provides a high-level architecture suggesting the way in which DES and MAS can be combined into a single simulation in a simple way.
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Hanne Haaland, Hege Wallevik, Erika Frydenlund, & Jose J. Padilla. (2020). Modelers and Ethnographers as Co-Creators of Knowledge: Do We Belong Together? In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1113–1121). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the process of co-creation of knowledge between modelers and ethnographers through a project focusing on the role played by CIGS (Citizen initiatives for global solidarity) in the refugee crisis in the island of Lesvos, Greece. We describe the process of collaboration and discuss what this type of interdisciplinary collaboration may bring to the development of a research topic when the initial skepticism and questions of epistemological differences have been overcome. Moreover, we address some of the challenges embedded in this type of research collaboration, particularly the skepticism present within the social sciences.
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Martin Hilljegerdes, & Ellen-Wien Augustijn-Beckers. (2019). Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The Caribbean island of Dominica is at constant risk of being hit by tropical storms during the hurricane season.
Therefore, Dominica and areas in similar situations need to raise their resilience to natural hazards. The potential
consequences of climate change intensify this risk. After a hurricane hit, repair of damage to buildings and
infrastructure can take several months. As hurricane frequency is increasing and time between hurricanes
fluctuates, modeling sequences of hurricane events can help to determine different evacuation strategies. This
paper introduces an agent-based model, simulating two hurricane events in one season. The prototype simulates
the movement of evacuees over a road network and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Initial results show
marked differences between road movements of evacuees during a second evacuation. Although shifts in the
average shelter occupation are small (up to 2%) for our case study, this can indicate that adjustments to shelter
capacities are necessary.
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Jennifer Mathieu, Mark Pfaff, Gary L. Klein, Jill L. Drury, Michael Geodecke, John James, et al. (2010). Tactical robust decision-making methodology: Effect of disease spread model fidelity on option awareness. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: We demonstrate a method of validating the utility of simpler, more agile models for supporting tactical robust decision making. The key is a focus on the decision space rather than the situation space in decision making under deep uncertainty. Whereas the situation space is characterized by facts about the operational environment, the decision space is characterized by a comparison of the options for action. To visualize the range of options available, we can use computer models to generate the distribution of plausible consequences for each decision option. If we can avoid needless detail in these models, we can save computational time and enable more tactical decision-making, which will in turn contribute to more efficient Information Technology systems. We show how simpler low fidelity, low precision models can be proved to be sufficient to support the decision maker. This is a pioneering application of exploratory modeling to address the human-computer integration requirements of tactical robust decision making.
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Meshal Alharbi, & Graham Coates. (2019). Assessing Flood Recovery of Small Businesses using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: In developed countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the majority of all businesses, e.g. 99.9% in the UK. Given this significant proportion, any disruption to the operation of SMEs will have a negative impact on a nation?s economy. In the context of flooding, this paper reports on the use of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) to assess SMEs immediate response and short-term recovery. In particular, it focuses on the interactions between manufacturing SMEs and mutual aid partners, and retail SMEs and companies specializing in refurbishing premises. Results show that a manufacturing SME with a mutual aid partner can reduce loss in production by approximately 6% over a 7 working day period. In relation to retail
SMEs, those with employees able to be allocated to refurbish its premises recovered faster than SMEs employing a refurbishment company, potentially one day earlier.
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Rouba Iskandar, Julie Dugdale, Elise Beck, & Cécile Cornou. (2021). PEERS: An integrated agent-based framework for simulating pedestrians' earthquake evacuation. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 86–96). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Traditional seismic risk assessment approaches focus on assessing the damages to the urban fabric and the resultant socio-economic consequences, without adequately incorporating the social component of risk. However, the human behavior is essential for anticipating the impacts of an earthquake, and should be included in quantitative risk assessment studies. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework for simulating pedestrians' evacuation in an urban environment during and in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. The model is applied to Beirut, Lebanon and integrates geo-spatial, socio-demographic, and quantitative behavioral data corresponding to the study area. Several scenarios are proposed to be explored using this model in order to identify the influence of relevant model parameters. These experiments could contribute to the development of improved of emergency management plans and prevention strategies.
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Usman Anjum, Vladimir Zadorozhny, & Prashant Krishnamurthy. (2021). TBAM: Towards An Agent-Based Model to Enrich Twitter Data. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 146–158). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Twitter is widely being used by researchers to understand human behavior, e.g. how people behave when an event occurs and how it changes their microblogging pattern. The changing microblogging behavior can have an important application in the form of detecting events. However, the Twitter data that is available has limitations in it has incomplete and noisy information and has irregular samples. In this paper we create a model, calledTwitter Behavior Agent-Based Model (TBAM)to simulate Twitter pattern and behavior using Agent-Based Modeling(ABM). The generated data can be used in place or to complement the real-world data and improve the accuracy of event detection. We confirm the validity of our model by comparing it with real data collected from Twitter
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Xiaoyan Zhang, Graham Coates, Sarah Dunn, & Jean Hall. (2020). Emergency Evacuation from a Multi-floor Building using Agent-based Modeling. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 188–199). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the ongoing research into the development of an agent-based model to enable simulations to be performed of agents evacuating from a multi-floor building with a complex layout, including staircases. Specifically, a flow field of navigation objects is constructed pre-computation, which stores the directions and shortest distances to all exits and staircases. Using the flow field, a navigation method is proposed for agents familiar with the environment to identify and follow the shortest route to a chosen exit. Preliminary simulations have been performed to investigate the effect on evacuation time of (i) exit configurations and (ii) familiarity of agents with the building layout. In assessing the effect of exit configurations, results show that the location of the main entrance has a significant influence on evacuation time. In addition, having more exits does not necessarily lead to a shorter evacuation time. In terms of the effect of familiarity of agents, having more agents with a greater level of familiarity does not significantly reduce evacuation time in most cases.
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Xiaoyan Zhang, Graham Coates, & Xiaoyang Ni. (2017). Agent-based Modelling and Simulation for Lecture Theatre Emergency Evacuation. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 63–71). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: This paper presents an overview of ongoing research into the implementation of an agent-based model aimed at providing decision support for the layout design of lecture theatres and human behavioural management in emergency evacuation. The model enables the spatial layout of lecture theatres to be configured and incorporates agent behaviours at the basic movement and individual level. In terms of individual behaviours, agents can be competitive, cooperative, climb obstacles (e.g. seating and desks) and fall down. Two cases are investigated to evaluate the effects of different exit locations in lecture theatres and competitive behaviour of agents on evacuation efficiency in multiple scenarios.
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Yannic Schulte, Miriam Klein, Marcus Wiens, & Frank Fiedrich. (2020). Spontaneous Volunteers Across National Borders: An Agent-Based Comparison. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 327–336). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: In today's globalized world and with the extensive use of social media, there is a high connectivity of people across countries, which can be a helpful potential in disaster response. In a coordinated manner, spontaneous volunteers from neighbouring nations can provide high manpower and resources to a disaster affected area. In this article, we discuss why the consideration of spontaneous volunteers is relevant in a cross-border context in order to improve disaster resilience for borderlands. Furthermore, we introduce a baseline agent-based model to simulate cooperation procedures for the involvement of spontaneous volunteers to the official crisis response in a borderland and discuss important issues that need to be addressed in future considerations.
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