Joaquín López-Silva, Victor A. Bañuls, & Murray Turoff. (2015). Scenario Based Approach for Risks Analysis in Critical Infrastructures. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper proposes a Cross Impact Analysis for supporting critical infrastructures risk analysis. This methodology contributes to decision-makers and planners with analytical tools for modeling complex situations. These features are generally useful in emergency management and particularly within the critical infrastructures scope, where complex scenarios for risk analysis and emergency plans design have to be analyzed. This paper will show by an example how CIA methodology can be applied for risks and identification analysis with an application to a Data Centre of a Critical Infrastructure.
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Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, & Murray Turoff. (2015). A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Linda Plotnick, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga. (2015). Collaborative Evolution of a Dynamic Scenario Model for the Interaction of Critical Infrastructures. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper reviews current work on a model of the cascading effects of Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures during disasters. Based upon the contributions of 26 professionals, we have created a reliable model for the interaction among sixteen CIs. An internal CI model can be used as a core part of a number of larger models, each of which are tailored to a specific disaster in a specific location.
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