Abstract: The goal of this industrial PhD is to investigate how to include resilience into a cyber-security strategy to safeguard vital infrastructure. Critical infrastructure is increasingly susceptible since businesses are using technology more often. These infrastructures are also components of a vast, integrated, and increasing digital supply chain that transcends national boundaries, adding to the difficulties. A bigger attack surface where an attacker might use vulnerabilities contained in suppliers' and sub suppliers' chains could come from this extension of the digital supply chain. The study will add to our understanding of how to manage intricate supply chains in critical infrastructure with stringent dependability requirements. The digitalization processes in the supply chain include changes to the organizational structure, necessitating a robust strategy for continual improvement. The research question for this project is as follows: How can a resilience framework contribute to managing the complex digital supply chain for stakeholders in the power industry? The system dynamic (SD) approach will be used to generate a simulation based on the findings from each of the methods. Previous supply chain research has demonstrated that SD modelling is an effective strategy for building resilience in supply networks. To comprehend and examine the behavior of dynamic and complex systems, the notion of SD was established. The theory of system dynamics is based on the idea that actions done in systems will change the system, which will then lead to new actions. To collect primary data the qualitative method chosen as most suitable the semi-structured interview. To understand a social phenomenon, one needs to listen to people who reflect on their own experiences, knowledge, and motivation. Through interviews, it is possible to go into depth on the phenomenon and gather complex and rich data that is not available through literature review only. Contributions from this Ph.D. study are grouped into two categories: academia and organization. Further understanding regarding supply chain vulnerability and the implementation of potential techniques and ideas in novel contexts are academic contributions. The development of the resilience framework, which aims to address the difficult problem of managing stakeholders in the digital supply chain, is a contribution made by the organizations. The goal for CIs is to have resilient DSCs that can withstand and improve from high-pressure situations. Improving DSC resilience requires an understanding of the supply chain network that includes suppliers’ and their sub-suppliers’ incentives, all the way to its downstream customers’ incentives. By understanding the structure of the system, the ability to ascertain the behavior of the system increases, providing opportunities to better manage the system. If we can harness the positive incentives for collaboration and social connection the road to a more resilient CI that is available when the society require it becomes easier.

Abstract: The importance of community resilience has become increasingly recognized in emergency management and
post-disaster community well-being. To this end, three seismic resilience planning initiatives have been
conducted in the U.S. in the last decade to envision the current state of community resilience. Experts who
participated in these initiatives confronted challenges that must be addressed for future planning initiatives.
We interviewed eighteen participants to learn about the community resilience planning process, its
characteristics, and challenges. Conducting qualitative content analysis, we identify six main challenges to
community resilience planning: complex network systems; interdependencies among built environment systems;
inter-organizational collaboration; connections between the built environment and social systems;
communications between built environment and social institutions? experts; and communication among
decision-makers, social stakeholders, and community members. To overcome the identified challenges, we
discuss the capability of human-centered simulation modeling as a combination of simulation modeling and
human-centered design to facilitate community resilience planning.

Abstract: Aiming at examining the cascading effects of the failure of Critical Infrastructure (CI), this work-in-progress research introduces an improved System Dynamics model. We represent an improvement over the previous models aimed at studying CIs interdependencies and their cascading effects. Our model builds on earlier models and corrects their flaws. In addition to introducing structural enhancements, the improvements include using unpublished data, a fresh look at a previously collected dataset and employing a new data processing to address and resolve some longstanding issues. The dataset was fed to an optimisation model to produce a new dataset used in our model. The structure of our SD model, its dataset and the data processing techniques we employed to create this dataset are all described in the study. Although the model has passed the fundamental validation criteria, more validation testing and scenario exploration are yet to be conducted.

Abstract: Stakeholder perspectives on crisis management provide a useful descriptive framework for analyzing crises and making crisis narratives. However, their actionability for crisis management, i.e. possibility to use stakeholder management models into operational crisis management processes, remains an under-investigated question. The purpose of this article is to discuss the operational value of stakeholder frameworks for crisis management. Drawing on a qualitative case study of a successful crisis management process in a public transportation company, we investigate the activities set up by the crisis cell to manage internal and external stakeholders during the crisis. In our case, successful stakeholder management relied on: 1) good diagnosis capabilities for the design of an appropriate corporate positioning; 2) an ability to manage coherently a set of emerging and heterogeneous issues involving stakeSholders ; 3) the capacity to set up a tightly coupled form of organization, involving both crisis cell members and various anchorage points, i.e. specific actors involved in the project before the crisis, who were already in contact with key stakeholders as part of their day-to-day activities. We then discuss the practical and theoretical implications of this analysis and the potential value stakeholder perspectives for crisis management.

Abstract: Information about location and geographical coordinates in particular, may be very important during a crisis event, especially for search and rescue operations ? but currently geo-tagged tweets are extremely rare. Improved capabilities of capturing additional location from Twitter (up to 4 times improvement) are crucial for response efforts given a vast amount of messages exchanged during a crisis event. That is why authors have designed a tool (Text Analysis TWeet lOcator ? TAT2) that relies on existing open source text analysis tools with additional services to provide additional hints about people location. Validation process, complementing experimentation and test results, included involvement of end-users (i.e. Public Protection and Disaster Relief services and citizens during a realistic crisis exercise showcase. In addition, the integration of TAT2 with external tools has also been validated.

Abstract: This paper describes the experiences of a West-European project group in Sri Lanka in March 2005, during a tsunami threat. They had previous disaster related knowledge and used both local guidance, global media and contacts back home, but could not get adequate information about how much time they had, how likely a tsunami was, or which countries had ordered evacuations. Their decision to evacuate was based on their own reasoning and influenced most by one trusted local resident. Their mobile phone communication with their relations in Europe created a de facto ad hoc mobile emergency announcement (MEA) system. Their decision to return relied heavily on the ad hoc MEA text messages, as local authorities had not yet issued an all-clear. The findings underline the importance of multiple early warning languages and delivery channels and suggest that when relevant, 'event onset time' should be explicit in early warning.

Abstract: Qualitative research methods like GABEK WinRelan are advantageous tools to analyze and thereby improve crisis management planning and communication systems by interrogating crisis management personnel. Contrary to quantitative methods they help to identify, explore, and structure new important aspects in this field and to formulate more specific research questions. This paper describes the usage and advantages of the qualitative method GABEK WinRelan within crisis management research, particularly within the e-Triage project which aims at the development of an electronic registration system of affected persons in mass casualty incidents. Furthermore it addresses different corresponding research fields like stress within emergency missions and the role GABEK WinRelan could play in examining these research fields. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: Throughout its history, Portugal Mainland and Azores Archipelago have suffered the catastrophic effects of earthquakes originating significant damages in buildings and human losses. Being aware of Portuguese seismic risk, civil protection authorities promoted some studies leading to the development of a seismic scenario simulation tool, applicable to some Mainland Portuguese regions. This paper describes recent improvements in the seismic scenario simulation tool, named LNECloss, and illustrates its applications to the evaluation of building damages and social losses, due to plausible seismic scenarios affecting Portugal. Some development requirements were identified in LNECloss simulator, namely making it available as a service on the Web, providing a stand alone tool, with no need of a geographic information desktop environment, although with the GIS capabilities of mapping and synthesis of the seismic scenario effects. In conclusion, the developed GIS Web Service offers a useful tool for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning and management.

Abstract: Owing to the complexity of Critical Infrastructures and the richness of issues to analyze, numerous approaches are used to model the behavior of CIs. Organizations having homeland security as mission often conduct desktop-based simulations using judgmental assessment of CI interdependencies and cascading failures. Expert estimates concern direct effects between the originally disrupted CI sector and other sectors. To better understand the magnitude of aggregate cascading effects, we developed a system dynamics model that uses expert estimates of cascading failures to compare the aggregate effect of cascading failures with the primary direct cascading failures. We find that the aggregate effect of compounded cascading failures becomes significantly greater than the primary cascading failures the longer the duration of the original disruption becomes. Our conceptually simple system dynamics model could be used to improve desktop-based exercises, since it illustrates consequences that go beyond judgmental assessment.

Abstract: The increasing use of social media as an information source brings further challenges – social media platforms can be an excellent medium for disseminating public awareness and critical information, that can be shared across large populations. However, misinformation in social media can have immense implications on public health, risking the effectiveness of health interventions as well as lives. This has been particularly true in the case of COVID-19 pandemic, with a range of misinformation, conspiracy theories and propaganda being spread across social channels. In our study, through a questionnaire survey, we set out to understand how members of the public interact with different sources when looking for information on COVID-19. We explored how participants react when they encounter information they believe to be misinformation. Through a set of three behaviour tasks, synthetic misinformation posts were provided to the participants who chose how they would react to them. In this work in progress study, we present initial findings and insights into our analysis of the data collected. We highlight what are the most common reactions to misinformation and also how these reactions are different based on the type of misinformation.

Abstract: Vulnerable communities are disproportionately impacted by major disasters. Information scientists working to improve disaster planning and mitigation efforts in these communities often involve first responder (practitioner) groups in collaborative design; however, less emphasis has been placed on developing long-term, sustainable crisis informatics partnerships at the population level. Community-based participatory research approaches are gaining attention in the US as an important element in translational science efforts designed to move innovations “from the bench to the curbside.” Community Engagement in Research (CEnR) is a community research approach adopted US National Institutes of Health (NIH) to improve public health intervention. CEnR has implications for improving the generalizability of ISCRAM research, may provide a roadmap for Public/Private/Community disaster research partnerships, and suggests modifications to training for information scientists working in this arena. The CEnR approach also recognizes conflicts that can occur in community/government partnerships, emphasizing the importance of predicting and preventing these situations. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: Planning problems in a crisis context are a highly uncertain environment where health facilities must cooperate in providing health services to their patients. We focus on the health crisis in France due to the COVID19 pandemic. In fact, the lack of appropriate scheduling tools, resources, and communication leads hospitals to be submerged by infected patients and forced to transfer them to other hospitals. In this work we aim to provide a global solution to such planning problems to improve the current French health system. We introduce a cooperative approach called OPPIC (Operational Planning Platform for Inter-healthcare Coordination). OPPIC is based on a decentralized system, where health facilities plan is dynamic, flexible, robust to uncertainty, and respond to goals and optimization criteria. This paper proposed a first planning model to OPPIC and provided a first way of negotiation between health facilities based on their plan’s local and global flexibility.

Abstract: The dynamic nature of real-world rescue scenarios (e.g., military, emergency first response, hurricane relief) requires constant reevaluation of resource assignments. New events can trigger additional resource requirements generating conflicts about how to reassign resources across tasks in an emerging crisis. Reallocation is further complicated as some resources are synergistic (i.e., helicopter and pilot) and many distributed rescue teams have limited information about other teams' status. We show how integrating a team-based multi-agent planning system with standard combinatorial auction methods to dynamically re-allocate resources can maximize overall rescue utility while providing for graceful managed degradation under conditions of extreme stress. The key innovation of our approach is that we explicitly provide a framework that incorporates the costs involved in dynamically switching resources from one task to another. We compare our system's performance against two other approaches.