Abdelgawad, A. A. (2023). An Updated System Dynamics Model for Analysing the Cascading Effects of Critical Infrastructure Failures. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 595–608). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Aiming at examining the cascading effects of the failure of Critical Infrastructure (CI), this work-in-progress research introduces an improved System Dynamics model. We represent an improvement over the previous models aimed at studying CIs interdependencies and their cascading effects. Our model builds on earlier models and corrects their flaws. In addition to introducing structural enhancements, the improvements include using unpublished data, a fresh look at a previously collected dataset and employing a new data processing to address and resolve some longstanding issues. The dataset was fed to an optimisation model to produce a new dataset used in our model. The structure of our SD model, its dataset and the data processing techniques we employed to create this dataset are all described in the study. Although the model has passed the fundamental validation criteria, more validation testing and scenario exploration are yet to be conducted.
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Alexander Gabriel, Florian Klein, & Frank Fiedrich. (2020). Modelling of Passenger Handling Processes in Railway Stations – A Mixed-Methods Approach. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 580–592). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: The constantly increasing number of passengers using public transportation leads to an expansion of the ser-vices offered by public transportation companies. The existing transportation infrastructures, especially rail-way stations, can only partly cope with this rapid growth. There is already overcrowding on platforms and access routes, especially during disruptions caused by natural disasters or major public events. This crowding may result in personal injury or shutdown of operations for safety reasons. The research project CroMa aims at improving robustness, safety, security and performance of railway stations at peak loads. The paper contributes thereto by developing an approach to assess railway infrastructure in terms of the risk of overcrowding. The core of this research is to combine qualitative workshop results with quantitative database analysis. Furthermore, the paper gives an outlook on the ongoing process model development as a basis for a semi-quantitative evaluation tool for railway stations applicable by end users.
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Alexander Gabriel, Simon Schleiner, Florian Brauner, Florian Steyer, Verena Gellenbeck, & Ompe Aimé Mudimu. (2017). Process modelling of physical and cyber terrorist attacks on networks of public transportation infrastructure. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 390–399). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Recent events have demonstrated the vulnerability of IT-systems of different companies, organisations or even governments to hacker attacks. Simultaneously, information technologies have become increasingly established and important for institutions of various branches. With respect to modern terrorism developments, cyber-attacks may be used to physically harm critical infrastructures. This leads to a new dimension of cyber-attacks called “terrorist cyber-attacks”. This research-in-progress paper aims to develop a process model for data acquisition and support of decision making that seeks to enhance the security of public transportation in the context of counterterrorism. Therefore, a generic process model for terrorist cyber-attacks – produced in the research project RE(H)STRAIN1 – is intro-duced as a basis for a decision support system (DSS). In the future, such models could improve the decision process by comparing the effectiveness of different security measures.
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B.J. Vreugdenhil, N. Bellomo, & P.S. Townsend. (2015). Using Crowd Modelling in Evacuation Decision Making. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Public spaces are created to be used, and large crowds gather in many buildings and external spaces. Maintaining a high level of safety for these people is of utmost importance. Cameras are used for security reasons by control room personnel, who also monitor crowd movements in case of emergency. Crowd modelling can be used to detect and analyse time dependent and space dependent crowd behaviour. Despite the large amount of raw visual information being processed, crowd modelling has not been dedicated yet to evacuation decision making. Predictive information can assist the decision maker in assessing the situation in the early stages, potentially preventing the need for an evacuation. If evacuation is inescapable, a decision maker can use crowd modelling to define the quickest and safest evacuation routes. This kind of decision support will reduce the number of deaths that occur before and during an evacuation.
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Carole Adam, & Eric Andonoff. (2019). Vigi Flood: a serious game for understanding the challenges of crisis communication. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Emergency managers receive communication training about the importance of being ?first, right and credible?,
which is not easy. For instance, in October 2018, the Aude department in the South-West of France was hit by
intense rain. Flash floods were hard to forecast and only the ?orange? level of vigilance could be raised initially, but
the population dismissed this very usual warning in that season. The ?red? level was then raised too late, leading
to high criticism. The main problem here is the loss of trust induced by too many ?false alarms?. In this paper
we propose a serious game called VigiFlood for raising awareness in the population about the difficulty of crisis
communication and their own responsibility for reacting to the alerts. The implemented game still has limited
functionality but already shows interesting results in helping the user to visualise and understand the trust dynamics
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Carole Adam, & Hélène Arduin. (2022). Finding and Explaining Optimal Screening Strategies with Limited Tests during the COVID-19 Epidemics. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 102–115). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: The COVID-19 epidemics has now lasted for 2 years. A vaccine has been found, but other complementary measures are still required, in particular testing, tracing contacts, isolating infected individuals, and respecting sanitary measures (physical distancing, masks). However these measures are not always well accepted and many fake news circulate about the virus or the vaccine. We believe that explaining the mechanisms behind the epidemics and the reasons for the sanitary measures is key to protect the general population from disinformation. To this end, we have developed a simple agent-based epidemic simulator that includes various screening strategies. We show that it can be used to compare the efficiency of various targeting strategies, starting date, and number of daily tests. We also ran an optimisation algorithm that proves that the best strategies consist in testing widely and early. Our simulator is already available to play online, to raise awareness in the general population.
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Emma Carter, & Simon French. (2005). Nuclear emergency management in Europe: A review of approaches to decision making. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 247–259). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: The need for transparent and consistent decision making in nuclear emergency management across local, regional, national and international levels is well recognised. Several decision support systems have been developed to help achieve this; but, by and large, with little consultation with potential DMs and with limited understanding of the emergency management procedures across Europe and how they differ. This work, part of a European Fifth Framework project EVATECH, considers the application of process modelling to document and compare the emergency management process in four countries. We have observed that the four process models are substantially different in their organizational structure and identified differences in where decisions are made, the management of advice and the communication network style. This papers focus is on the results of the comparison and the implications for the design and use of decision support systems.
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Charles Bailly, & Carole Adam. (2017). An interactive simulation for testing communication strategies in bushfires. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 72–84). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Australia is frequently hit by bushfires. In 2009, the “Black Saturday” fires killed 173 people and burnt hectares of bush. As a result, a research commission was created to investigate, and concluded that several aspects could be improved, in particular better understanding of the population actual behaviour, and better communication with them. We argue that agent-based modelling and simulation is a great tool to test possible communication strategies, in order to deduce valuable insight for emergency managers before new fires happen. In this paper, we extend an existing agent-based model of the population behaviour in bushfires. Concretely, we added a communication model based in social sciences, and user interactivity with the model. We present the results of first experiments with dierent communication strategies, providing valuable insight for better communication with the population during such events. This model is still preliminary and will eventually be turned into a serious game.
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Anthony Charles, Matthieu Lauras, & Rolando Tomasini. (2009). Learning from previous humanitarian operations, a business process reengineering approach. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Uncertainty and risks are part of humanitarians' daily routine. Most of the time, infrastructures are damaged or non-existent, the political climate is highly volatile, communication means are insufficient, and so on. Therefore, humanitarian organizations often have to find original methods to implement their supply chains. They may also face recurrent problems, that requires them to change the way they operate. And yet, as they lack the time and resources to reflect on the lessons learnt, most of their best practices and issues are neither captured nor communicated. The aim of the study is thus to propose a framework to capitalize humanitarians' knowledge and know-how, to analyze both gaps and best practices and learn from one operation to another. To this end, we propose a framework derived from traditional Enterprise Modelling tools, adapted to fit relief chains' specificities. Field applications are then given to illustrate our approach and its beneficial effects.
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Christophe Viavattene, Simon McCarthy, Michelle Ferri, Martina Monego, & Maurizio Mazzoleni. (2016). Evaluation of emergency protocols using agent-based approach. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Integrated flood risk management involves a large portfolio of options for mitigating risks that includes hard and soft structural, non-structural, and recovery responses. Non-structural responses include flood warnings, emergency services supported by individuals, collective actions and the use of resistance and resilience measures. Sufficient flood warning time, appropriate actions at desired locations and time are essential for effective and beneficial responses. From this perspective beside the management of the crisis itself, the level of preparedness including the evaluation of plans involving such responses (e.g. emergency protocols) also needs to be sufficient and, thus in the context of various event scenarios.
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Dashley Rouwendal van Schijndel, Audun Stolpe, & Jo Erskine Hannay. (2021). Toward an AI-based external scenario event controller for crisis response simulations. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 106–117). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: There is a need for tool support for structured planning, execution and analysis of simulation-based training for crisisresponse and management. As a central component of an architecture for such tool support, we outline the design ofan AI-based scenario event controller. The event controller is a component that uses machine reasoning to computethe next state in a scenario, given the actions performed in the corresponding simulation (execution of the scenario).Scenarios are specified in Answer Set Programming, which is a logic programming language we use for automatedplanning of training scenarios. A plan encoding in ASP adds expressivity in scenario specification and enablesmachine reasoning. For exercise managers this gives AI-based tool support for before-action and during-actionreviews to optimize learning. In line with Modelling and Simulation as as Service, our approach externalizes eventcontrol from any particular simulation platform. The scenario, and its unfolding in terms of events, is externalizedas a service. This increases interoperability and enables scenarios to be designed and modified readily and rapidlyto adapt to new training requirements.
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Edjossan-Sossou, A., Selouane, K., Sayah, M. A., Ouabou, M., Vignote, C., Capitaine, M., et al. (2023). An innovative scenario-based modeling tool for the management of resilient water resources. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 808–821). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: As freshwater availability for domestic and agro-industrial uses is highly sensitive to climate change, there is an urgent need for the management of this critical resource to be resilient, i.e., to cope with and rapidly recover from climate risks. To achieve this resilient goal, decision-makers need to have a comprehensive understanding of (i) the current and future local water resources, (ii) the ways these resources are and will be impacted by climate change, and (iii) the effects their management decisions can have. In this paper, we present an innovative scenario based modeling tool that help decision-makers make the most appropriate decision towards managing water resources: the Resilience Performance Assessment (RPA). This GIS-based decision support tool illustrates the current and future effects of climate change on local water resources and simulates the outcomes of different water resources management strategies. The RPA helps guide decision-makers towards the implementation of context specific adaptation strategies.
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Eric Daudé, Kevin Chapuis, Clément Caron, Alexis Drogoul, Benoit Gaudou, Sebastien Rey-Coyrehourq, et al. (2019). ESCAPE: Exploring by Simulation Cities Awareness on Population Evacuation. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Partial or total horizontal evacuation of populations in urban areas is an important protection measure against a natural or technological risk. However, casualties during massive displacement in a context of stress and in a potentially degraded environment may be high due to non-compliance with instructions, accidents, traffic jams, incivilities, lack of preparation of civil security or increased exposure to hazards. Working in evacuation plans is therefore fundamental in avoiding casualties caused by improvisation and in promoting self-evacuation whenever possible. Since it is impossible to re-create the conditions of a crisis on the ground to assess such evacuation plans, there is a need for realistic models in order to evaluate them using simulations. In this paper, we present the ESCAPE software framework that helps in the development of such plans and testing them. In particular, ESCAPE, which uses the GAMA open-source platform as a core component, provides an agent-based simulation tool that supports simulation of the evacuation of a city's population at fine temporal and Geographical scales. The framework was developed such that it works for a wide range of scenarios, both in terms of hazards, geographical configurations, individual behaviors and crisis management. In order to show its adaptability, two applications are presented, one concerning the evacuation of the city of Rouen (France) in the context of a technological hazard and the other pertaining to the evacuation of the district of Hanoi (Vietnam) in the event of floods.
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Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
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Stephen C. Fortier. (2013). Developing an incident response process model for chemical facilities. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 941–950). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This research project investigated the incident response mechanism used by the chemical industry for handling extremely hazardous chemicals. The mechanism was described as the policies, procedures, practices, tools, and methods used to conduct incident response. The results from the study determined what technologies, specifically software and information systems, could be utilized to improve the chemical facility incident response mechanism. The chemical industry is responsible for process safety management at all of its facilities, especially those that have off-site consequences in the event of an unplanned release. The processes and procedures of local, regional and national emergency responders have been studied thoroughly. An area of research that is lacking is the study of incident response policies and procedures within the boundaries of a chemical site. Results of the analysis determined that the chemical industry, in general, does not take advantage of available information technology when responding to unplanned releases.
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Gonzalez, J. J., & Eden, C. (2023). Devising Mitigation Strategies With Stakeholders Against Systemic Risks in a Pandemic. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 1000–1013). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Understanding and managing systemic risk has huge importance for disaster risk reduction in our globally connected world. The COVID-19 pandemic is a prominent case for the global impact of systemic risk. Did so the added urgency of the pandemic systemic risk trigger such paradigm shift? The use of qualitative modelling of systemic risk has progressed the field, particularly when policy makers need support urgently and want to utilize a range of interdisciplinary expertise. We have extended to disaster risk reduction a method for causal mapping for problem solving and strategy development targeting complex project management. Our approach delivers useful, useable, and used mitigation to systemic risk in a pandemic using participatory modelling with practitioners, domain experts and power-brokers.
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Mark Hoogendoorn, Catholijn M. Jonker, Viara Popova, Alexei Sharpanskykh, & Lai Xu. (2005). Formal modelling and comparing of disaster plans. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 97–100). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Every municipality in The Netherlands has its own disaster plan. A disaster plan contains the blueprint of how to handle incidents in the municipality with the aim of preventing incidents to grow into disasters. Given that each municipality has its own organisations, enterprises, infrastructure, and general layout, the disaster plans also differ. On the other hand, the disaster plans have a lot in common. Some municipalities use a common starting point, others develop their own disaster plan from scratch. In this paper two independently developed disaster plan are compared using formal modelling techniques. The analysis reveals that some interesting differences do not stem from a difference in the makings of the municipality. These differences touch the fundamentals of the communication during incident management, and might well have a critical impact in dealing with pending disasters.
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James Hilton, & Nikhil Garg. (2023). Rapid Geospatial Processing for Hazard and Risk Management using the Geostack Framework. In V. L. Thomas J. Huggins (Ed.), Proceedings of the ISCRAM Asia Pacific Conference 2022 (pp. 2–7). Palmerston North, New Zealand: Massey Unversity.
Abstract: Operational predictive and risk modelling of landscape-scale hazards such as floods and fires requires rapid processing of geospatial data, fast model execution and efficient data delivery. However, geospatial data sets required for hazard prediction are usually large, in a variety of different formats and usually require a complex pre-processing toolchain. In this paper we present an overview of the Geostack framework, which has been specifically designed for this task using a newly developed software library. The platform aims to provide a unified interface for spatial and temporal data sets, deliver rapid processing through OpenCL and integrate with web APIs or external graphical user interface systems to display and deliver results. We provide examples of hazard and risk use cases, particularly Spark, a Geostack based system for predicting the spread of wildfires. The framework is open-source and freely available to end users and practitioners in the hazard and geospatial space.
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Julius Bañgate, Julie Dugdale, Carole Adam, & Elise Beck. (2017). A Review on the Influence of Social Attachment on Human Mobility During Crises. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 110–126). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Human behaviour during crisis evacuations is soial in nature. In particular, social attachment theory posits that proximity of familiar people, places, objects, etc. promotes calm and a feeling of safety, while their absence triggers panic or flight. In closely bonded groups such as families, members seek each other and evacuate as one. This makes attachment bonds necessary in the development of realistic models of mobility during crises. In this paper, we present a review of evacuation behaviour, theories on social attachment, crises mobility, and agent-based models. We found that social attachment influences mobility in the dierent stages of evacuation (pre, during and post). Based on these findings, we intend to develop a multi-agent model of mobility during seismic crises, using the belief, desire and intention (BDI) agent architecture.
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Kenny Meesters, & Thijs van Beek. (2021). Towards a tailor-made modelling language for information flow setups in humanitarian crisis management. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 448–458). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Over the years many different strategies, approaches and tools have been used in emergency response to connect information flows. In large-scale emergencies different tools, processes and structures are used to coordinate information. This is in part due to the differences in countries, emergencies, and local context, but also personal preferences, capabilities and resources play a role. Despite these differences, being able to compare and contrast various information structures, processes and systems would be beneficial to identify recurring structures and their performance. Modelling languages have been used in many other contexts to support these practices of describing, analyzing and comparing processes. This research examines the need and potential of a tailored modelling language to visualize information flow setups. In this study an initial set of requirements is developed from a literature study and further validated with expert in-depth interview. These requirements are compared with existing modelling languages to identify key building blocks of the language. The results provide key considerations for the development of a new modelling language to describe information flows in a consistent and structured manner.
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Philippe Kruchten, Carson Woo, Kafui Monu, & Mandana Sotoodeh. (2007). A human-centered conceptual model of disasters affecting critical infrastructures. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 327–344). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Understanding the interdependencies of critical infrastructures (power, transport, communication, etc.) is essential in emergency preparedness and response in the face of disasters. Unfortunately, many factors (e.g., unwillingness to disclose or share critical data) prohibited the complete development of such an understanding. As an alternative solution, this paper presents a conceptual model-an ontology-of disasters affecting critical infrastructures. We bring humans into the loop and distinguish between the physical and social interdependencies between infrastructures, where the social layer deals with communication and coordination among representatives (either humans or intelligent agents) from the various critical infrastructures. We validated our conceptual model with people from several different critical infrastructures responsible for disasters management. We expect that this conceptual model can later be used by them as a common language to communicate, analyze, and simulate their interdependencies without having to disclose all critical and confidential data. We also derived tools from it.
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Leorey Marquez, Pawan Gamage, Dhirendra Singh, Vincent Lemiale, Trevor Dess, Peter Ashton, et al. (2023). SEEKER: A Web-Based Simulation Tool for Planning Community Evacuations. In V. L. Thomas J. Huggins (Ed.), Proceedings of the ISCRAM Asia Pacific Conference 2022 (pp. 8–24). Palmerston North, New Zealand: Massey Unversity.
Abstract: Bushfires cause widespread devastation in Australia, one of the most fire-prone countries on earth. Bushfire seasons are also becoming longer and outbreaks of severe bushfires are occurring more often. This creates the problem of having more people at risk in very diverse areas resulting in more difficult mass evacuations over time. The Barwon Otway region in Victoria’s Surf Coast Shire is one such area with evacuation challenges due to its limited routes in and out of coastal areas and its massive population surges during the tourist season and holiday periods. The increasing gravity of the bushfire threat to the region has brought about the Great Ocean Road Decision Support System (GOR-DSS) project, and the subsequent development of a disaster evacuation tool to support emergency management organisations assess evacuation and risk mitigation options. This paper describes the design and development of SEEKER (Simulations of Emergency Evacuations for Knowledge, Education and Response). The SEEKER tool adds another level of intelligence to the evacuation response by incorporating agent-based modelling and allows emergency management agencies to design and run evacuation scenarios and analyse the risk posed by the fire to the population and road network. Furthermore, SEEKER can be used to develop multiple evacuation scenarios to investigate and compare the effectiveness of each emergency evacuation plan. This paper also discusses the application of SEEKER in a case study, community engagement, and training.
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Bas Lijnse, Jan Martin Jansen, Ruud Nanne, & Rinus Plasmeijer. (2011). Capturing the Netherlands Coast Guard's SAR workflow with iTasks. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The dynamic nature of crisis response operations and the rigidity of workflow modelling languages are two things that do not go well together. A recent alternative approach to workflow management systems that allows for more flexibility is the iTask system. It uses an embedded functional language for the specification of workflow models that integrates control-flow with data-flow in dynamic data-dependent workflow specifications. Although there is a variety of publications about the iTask workflow definition language (WDL) and its implementation, its applications have been limited to academic toy examples. To explore the iTasks WDL for crisis response applications, we have developed an iTask specification of the Search And Rescue (SAR) workflow of the Netherlands Coast Guard. In this specification we capture the mix of standard procedures and creative improvisation of which a SAR operation exists.
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Michael K. Lindell. (2011). Evacuation modelling: Algorithms, assumptions, and data. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Survey researchers need to, Find out what assumptions evacuation modelers are making and collect empirical data to replace incorrect assumptions;, Obtain data on the costs of evacuation to households, businesses, and local government; and, Extend their analyses to address the logistics of evacuation and the process of re-entry. Evacuation modelers need to, Incorporate available empirical data on household evacuation behavior, and, Generate estimates of the uncertainties in their analyses. Cognitive scientists need to, Conduct experiments on hurricane tracking and evacuation decision making to better understand these processes, and, Develop training programs, information displays, and performance aids to assist local officials who have little or no previous experience in hurricane evacuation decision making.
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Maël Arnaud, Carole Adam, & Julie Dugdale. (2017). The role of cognitive biases in reactions to bushfires. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 85–96). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Human behaviour is influenced by many psychological factors such as emotions, whose role is already widely recognised. Another important factor, and all the more so during disasters where time pressure and stress constrain reasoning, are cognitive biases. In this paper, we present a short overview of the literature on cognitive biases and show how some of these biases are relevant in a particular disaster, the 2009 bushfires in the South-East of Australia. We provide a preliminary formalisation of these cognitive biases in BDI (beliefs, desires, intentions) agents, with the goal of integrating such agents into agent-based models to get more realistic behaviour. We argue that taking such “irrational” behaviours into account in simulation is crucial in order to produce valid results that can be used by emergency managers to better understand the behaviour of the population in future bushfires.
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