Min Zhu, Ruxue Chen, Shi Chen, Shaobo Zhong, Cheng Liu, Tianye Lin, et al. (2018). A Conceptual Double Scenario Model for Predicting Medical Service Needs in the International Disaster Relief Action. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 409–418). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Man-made and natural disasters have affected people worldwide. Mass casualty incidents would create a surge in demand for medical services. Medical service needs are the basis of medical strategic readiness plan. In recent years, international actions have been criticized for being ill-adapted to dominating health needs of the affected region. The “Scenario-Response” modeling is an important method in disaster prediction. This research established a medical service needs scenario model with two different levels of ambition: a disaster scenario, in which casualty figure, composition of injuries are constrained by the types of the disaster as well as the degree of the damage, and a country scenario, in which the healthcare needs are constrained by the health coverage and the health condition of local people. Armed conflicts in Yemen and Syria Arab Republic were analyzed by this model. The results showed that the outcome of this model fit the reality.
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Nawel Amokrane, & Nicolas Daclin. (2017). Deducing Complex Scenarios for Resilience Analysis: Application to the Franco-German High Speed Train Network. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 464–474). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: The present work is part of the project RE(H)STRAIN1 which investigates security and its impact on the resilience of the Franco-German high-speed train network in case of terrorist attacks. To improve the capacity of this network to recover a normal functioning after a terrorist attack, appropriate security measures must be determined. To do so, the project investigates, in a scenario-driven holistic approach the entire terrorist sphere of possible actions. Terrorism threat is first defined as a set of single attacks called vignette attacks represented by the triplet actor – weapon – target, then complex attack scenarios are built considering combination rules detailed in this article. In this regard, this work aims at providing end-users with an approach to automatically deduce a set of formalized, consistent and plausible complex attack scenarios to allow in further steps to analyze and improve the resilience level of the high-speed train transportation infrastructure.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Linda Plotnick. (2013). A cross impact scenario model of organizational behavior in emergencies. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 703–713). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: A conceptual model is developed of the events that can comprise a dynamic cross impact model of performance of a collection of organizations seeking to respond effectively to an emergency or disaster. It might also be used to model a single organization made up of organizational units. This paper provides a concise overview of the literature that supports the creation of the cross-impact event set. The major goal is to engage other professionals who might aid in supplying a collaborative set of estimates for the relative impacts among the events in what would be an asynchronous online Delphi Process.
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