Nuno Afonso, & M. Luísa Sousa. (2011). Seismic scenario simulations using a GIS Web Service. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Throughout its history, Portugal Mainland and Azores Archipelago have suffered the catastrophic effects of earthquakes originating significant damages in buildings and human losses. Being aware of Portuguese seismic risk, civil protection authorities promoted some studies leading to the development of a seismic scenario simulation tool, applicable to some Mainland Portuguese regions. This paper describes recent improvements in the seismic scenario simulation tool, named LNECloss, and illustrates its applications to the evaluation of building damages and social losses, due to plausible seismic scenarios affecting Portugal. Some development requirements were identified in LNECloss simulator, namely making it available as a service on the Web, providing a stand alone tool, with no need of a geographic information desktop environment, although with the GIS capabilities of mapping and synthesis of the seismic scenario effects. In conclusion, the developed GIS Web Service offers a useful tool for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning and management.
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Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Miguel Almeida, & Christoph Aubrecht. (2015). Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability ? High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.
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Viveca Asproth, Erik A.M. Borglund, & Lena-Maria Öberg. (2013). Exercises for crisis management training in intra-organizational settings. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 105–109). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: In this article the focus is how to train collaboration and communication between emergency authorities in two countries (Norway and Sweden) by using a web-based tool supporting tabletop like exercises. The exercises are accomplished in three steps: Scenario design; exercise design and realization; and evaluation to examine the results of the exercises and for feedback to new scenario designs. The software ties all three steps together. The process is iterative, and involves users from each emergency authority. The preliminary results after two years show that the approach is promising. To be able to better foresee what will happen during an exercise the need for a simulator has appeared as one desirable and possible direction for further research.
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Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff, & Joaquin Lopez. (2010). Clustering scenarios using cross-impact analysis. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Scenarios are frequently used in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. These scenarios are developed based on the hypothesis of occurrence or not of significant events. This is a complex process because of the interrelations between events. This fact, along with the uncertainty about the occurrence or non-occurrence of the events, makes the scenario generation process a challenging issue for emergency managers. In this work a new step-by-step model for clustering scenarios via cross-impact is proposed. The authors. proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on Cross-Impact Analysis. Moreover, it allows working with large sets of events without using great computational infrastructures. These contributions are expected to be useful for supporting the analysis of critical events and risk assessment tasks in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. Operational issues and practical implications of the model are discussed by means of an example.
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Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2012). Supporting collaborative scenario analysis through Cross-Impact. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Scenarios can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. Cross-Impact Analysis aims at contributing to this goal through allowing the collaborative development of scenarios out of large event sets, and this ultimately reduces the complexity for estimating a working model. In this paper we analyze how to apply Cross-Impact Analysis for developing collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness. In order to illustrate this research effort hypothetical results of a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise are presented. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate the ability of a group to create a working model of the scenario that may be used to examine the consequences of various assumptions about preparedness, plans, and the actions taken during the event. The method may be used as either a planning tool and/or a training tool. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Jane Barnett, William Wong, David Westley, Rick Adderley, & Michelle Smith. (2011). Startle points: A proposed framework for identifying situational cues, and developing realistic emergency training scenarios. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Real-world crises are not prescriptive and may contain unexpected events, described here as startle points. Including these events in emergency training simulator scenarios is crucial in order to prepare for startle points that may arise in the real world. Startle points occur when individuals who assess and monitor emergency scenarios, are suddenly faced with an unexpected event, and are unsure how to proceed. This paper offers a non-empirical framework that explores how cues generated by startle points affect decision making. Future research will use the framework to explore how experts and novices experience, and then adapt to startle points, as a function of decision mode, situation awareness, and emotional arousal. The resulting data can then be used to identify cues surrounding startle points and as a consequence, create dynamic scenarios for online training simulators so that individuals can prepare and adapt to them, and transfer acquired skills to real-world emergencies.
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Erik A.M. Borglund, & Lena-Maria Öberg. (2014). Creation of an exercise scenario: A collaborative design effort. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 488–492). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: To increase the preparedness Crisis response and management authorities carry out various forms of exercises. This article is based upon a three year long project named Gaining security symbiosis (GSS). The project was aiming to increase the collaboration between crisis actors in the Swedish-Norway border region through exercises. We argue that creation of scenarios is a design challenge. In the GSS project, the exercises are built upon designed scenarios, which should make the exercise realistic and make the trainee train the expected. We propose a scenario design method that is built upon an iterative approach and that includes collaboration with the actors that are involved in the exercise. The method also includes a set of characteristics that could be used to evaluate the events of the scenario. The method have been developed and refined during the project and show some promising result. There is however a need for future research when it comes to further development and evaluation of the proposed design method.
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George H. Bressler, Murray E. Jennex, & Eric G. Frost. (2012). X24 Mexico: Stronger together. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Can populations self-organize a crisis response? This is a work in progress report on Exercise 24, X24, Mexico, a follow up to the first two exercises, X24 and X24 Europe The X24 exercises used a variety of free and low-cost social media and web 2.0 tools to organize, plan, and manage local and international expertise and organizations in the response to a preset disaster scenario. The first X24 focused on Southern California, while the second X24, X24 Europe, focused on the Balkan area of Eastern Europe. These exercises involved over 12,500 participants for X24 while X24 Europe had over 49,000 participants. This paper presents an overview of the recently completed X24 Mexico exercise, as well as the preliminary results. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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José Miguel Castillo. (2011). An agent-based approach to envision the future. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The need to envision the future is not new; it has existed since the beginning of human-kind. What it is new is the applicable technology that is available in a specific period of time. It is vital to research in the field of methods, techniques and tools that allow us to foresee the future. Although this problem is common to any area, an urgent solution is required to those with critical social repercussions. It is not usual to find a critical social system which evolves according to predictable guidelines or tendencies. This paper presents a solution to model the opinions of an experts group with the aim of predicting possible future scenarios. This paper includes the description of a specific process to elaborate the information elicited from the experts by using fuzzy logic and the development of multi-agent systems (MAS) to automate the creation of such scenarios.
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José Miguel Castillo, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Murray Turoff. (2012). Monte Carlo and decision making support in crisis management. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Simulation is an interdisciplinary science applicable to many branches of knowledge. One field in which simulation is relevant is decision making support (DMS), in which we use computers to run models of real or possible scenarios in order to evaluate alternative actions before carrying them out. We will obtain a useful simulation system only when the model (engine of the simulation process) has been made accurately to represent reality. Thus it is necessary to use a methodology that helps us to construct a simulation system. This paper presents some classifications of simulation systems and an introduction to the Monte Carlo method, with the objective of creating a framework of application of this method for the construction of simulation systems for decision making support in crisis management. One area of applicability is scenario-based simulations for training for cross-national teams to cooperate in large scale disasters. The final aim of this research will be the recommendation of standards and methodologies to build simulation systems in crisis management, specifically in decision making support. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Chao Sun, Fushen Zhang, Shaobo Zhong, & Quanyi Huang. (2015). Expression and Deduction of emergency scenario based on scenario element model. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: In the context of an era filled with frequent occurrence of emergencies, it is urgent to carry out effective treatment. The existing studies focus their research on general rule of emergency evolution, ignoring the consideration of concrete composition of scenario, whilethe formulation of contingency plan based on the real evolution process of the emergency is rare. In this paper, the basic model of scenario elements is proposed firstly. Next, from the perspective of evolution and disposal of emergency, the framework of scenario for emergencies and emergency disposal is put forward, which paves the way for depiction and scenario analysis of emergency. Finally, this paper takes the stampede as an example, dividing the scenario of emergency and its components, namely scenario elements, and representing the evolution scenario of stampede by scenario elements model. Our method takes advantage of scenario elements model to provide support for the formulation and evaluation of emergency exercise.
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Tina Comes, Claudine Conrado, Michael Hiete, Michiel Kamermans, Gregor Pavlin, & Niek Wijngaards. (2010). An intelligent decision support system for decision making under uncertainty in distributed reasoning frameworks. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper presents an intelligent system facilitating better-informed decision making under severe uncertainty as found in emergency management. The construction of decision-relevant scenarios, being coherent and plausible descriptions of a situation and its future development, is used as a rationale for collecting, organizing, filtering and processing information for decision making. The development of scenarios is geared to assessing decision alternatives, thus avoiding time-consuming analysis and processing of irrelevant information. The scenarios are constructed in a distributed setting allowing for a flexible adaptation of reasoning (principles and processes) to the problem at hand and the information available. This approach ensures that each decision can be founded on a coherent set of scenarios, which was constructed using the best expertise available within a limited timeframe. Our theoretical framework is demonstrated in a distributed decision support system by orchestrating both automated systems and human experts into workflows tailored to each specific problem.
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Tina Comes, Michael Hiete, Niek Wijngaards, & Masja Kempen. (2009). Integrating scenario-based reasoning into multi-criteria decision analysis. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a technique for decision support which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations taking into account subjective preferences of the decision makers. However, MCDA does not foresee an analysis of multiple plausible future developments of a given situation. In contrast, scenario-based reasoning (SBR) is frequently used to assess future developments on the longer term. The ability to discuss multiple plausible future developments provides a rationale for strategic plans and actions. Nevertheless, SBR lacks an in-depth performance evaluation of the considered actions. This paper explores the integration of both techniques that combines their respective strengths as well as their application in environmental crisis management. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an environmental incident example. Future work is to conduct validations on the basis of real-world scenarios by public Dutch and Danish chemical incident crisis management authorities.
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Tina Comes, Niek Wijngaards, & Frank Schultmann. (2012). Efficient scenario updating in emergency management. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Emergency managers need to assess, combine and process large volumes of information with varying degrees of (un)certainty. To keep track of the uncertainties and to facilitate gaining an understanding of the situation, the information is combined into scenarios: stories about the situation and its development. As the situation evolves, typically more information becomes available and already acknowledged information is changed or revised. Meanwhile, decision-makers need to keep track of the scenarios including an assessment whether the infor-mation constituting the scenario is still valid and relevant for their purposes. Standard techniques to support sce-nario updating usually involve complete scenario re-construction. This is far too time-consuming in emergency management. Our approach uses a graph theoretical scenario formalisation to enable efficient scenario updating. MCDA techniques are employed to decide whether information changes are sufficiently important to warrant scenario updating. A brief analysis of the use-case demonstrates a large gain in efficiency. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Daniel Lichte, Dustin Witte, & Kai-Dietrich Wolf. (2020). Comprehensive Security Hazard Analysis for Transmission Systems. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1145–1153). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Critical energy infrastructures are more and more focused upon by politics and society. Modern society depends on these structures, since they enable the steady support of electricity and other types of energy. Deliberately precipitated hazards of certain critical parts of electrical transmission systems (ETS) can lead to catastrophic consequences. Therefore, the analysis of feasible security hazards and resulting consequences for the operation of transmission systems are a concern to transmission system operators (TSO). Alas, there is no common method available that comprehensively identifies these feasible security related scenarios and classifies them according to their overall criticality for the safe operation of the ETS. To tackle this challenge, we propose a comprehensive, yet easy-to-apply method to systematically identify and assess the criticality of security threat scenarios. It is conducted in four steps and consists of a matrix based consistency check of threat scenarios in a defined solution space and a convenient semi-quantitative assessment of a risk factor for the ETS. The approach is illustrated by the simplified generic example of an EETS.
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Dashley Rouwendal van Schijndel, Audun Stolpe, & Jo Erskine Hannay. (2021). Toward an AI-based external scenario event controller for crisis response simulations. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 106–117). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: There is a need for tool support for structured planning, execution and analysis of simulation-based training for crisisresponse and management. As a central component of an architecture for such tool support, we outline the design ofan AI-based scenario event controller. The event controller is a component that uses machine reasoning to computethe next state in a scenario, given the actions performed in the corresponding simulation (execution of the scenario).Scenarios are specified in Answer Set Programming, which is a logic programming language we use for automatedplanning of training scenarios. A plan encoding in ASP adds expressivity in scenario specification and enablesmachine reasoning. For exercise managers this gives AI-based tool support for before-action and during-actionreviews to optimize learning. In line with Modelling and Simulation as as Service, our approach externalizes eventcontrol from any particular simulation platform. The scenario, and its unfolding in terms of events, is externalizedas a service. This increases interoperability and enables scenarios to be designed and modified readily and rapidlyto adapt to new training requirements.
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Tiago C. De França, Diogo Nolasco, Rafael Lage Tavares, Jose Orlando Gomes, & De Paulo V. R. Carvalho. (2014). A critical insight of the pope's visit to Brazil for the world youth day: Resilience or fragility? In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 463–472). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This work proposes a model to evaluate systems regarding their resilience in handling unexpected disturbances. To exemplify the use of the proposed model, we chose to analyze the World Youth Day (WID), an important event on the global scenario that happened this year in Rio de Janeiro, a city which will host big events in the next few years, like the World Cup and the Olympic Games. From this event, we chose two disturbances that stressed the system and had the possibility to cause a lot of problems to the event and the city, like the rains in Guaratiba and the arrival of the Pope's committee. After analyzing how the overall WYD organization deal with these disturbances we conclude that, besides the success of the event, the organization showed much more signs of brittleness than resilience.
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Massimiliano De Leoni, Fabio De Rosa, Andrea Marrella, Massimo Mecella, Antonella Poggi, Alenka Krek, et al. (2007). Emergency management: From user requirements to a flexible P2P architecture. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 271–279). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The most effective way to design an emergency management system matching user needs is to perform a User-Centered Design; it relies on continuous interactions with end-users in order to understand better and better how organizations are arranged during emergencies, which data are exchanged and which steps are performed by organizations to face disastrous events. In this paper we (i) illustrate the methodology used to collect the user requirements for the emergency management system developed in the European research project WORKPAD, and (ii) describe the WORKPAD high level architecture stemming from such requirements. Specifically, the methodology is applied in the context of Regional Civil Protection of Calabria (Italy) and is used as basis to provide more general user requirements for emergency management systems.
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Rahele B. Dilmaghani, & Ramesh R. Rao. (2008). A wireless mesh infrastructure deployment with application for emergency scenarios. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 484–494). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: When a disaster or emergency occurs, one of the most pressing needs is to establish a communication network for the first responders at the scene. Establishing and accessing a reliable communication infrastructure at a crisis site is crucial in order to have accurate and real-time exchange of information. Failure in the exchange of timely and crucial information or delay in allocating resources impedes early response efforts, potentially resulting in loss of life and additional economic impact. At a disaster site, the existing communication infrastructure may be damaged and therefore partially or totally unavailable; or, there may not have been previously existing infrastructure (as in the case of remote areas). A communication infrastructure within the context of emergency applications should be reliable, easily configurable, robust, interoperable in a heterogeneous environment with minimum interdependencies, and quickly deployable at low cost. A disaster scene is a chaotic environment which requires a systematic approach to abstract the system, study the flow of information and collaboration among different disciplines and jurisdictions to facilitate response and recovery efforts. We have deployed the wireless mesh infrastructure in several drills at the university campus and in the city as part of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2) NSF-funded RESCUE project (Responding to Crises and Unexpected Events). To evaluate network performance and identify the source(s) of bottleneck, we have captured the network traffic. The lessons learned from test bed evaluations of the network based on real-world scenarios can be applied to future applications to enhance the network design and performance.
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Douglas Alem, & Alistair Clark. (2015). Insights from two-stage stochastic programming in emergency logistics. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper discusses the practical aspects and resulting insights of the results of a two-stage mathematical network flow model to help make the decisions required to get humanitarian aid quickly to needy recipients as part of a disaster relief operation. The aim of model is to plan where to best place aid inventory in preparation for possible disasters, and to make fast decisions about how best to channel aid to recipients as fast as possible. Humanitarian supply chains differ from commercial supply chains in their greater urgency of response and in the poor quality of data and increased uncertainty about important inputs such as transportation resources, aid availability, and the suddenness and degree of “demand”. The context is usually more chaotic with poor information feedback and a multiplicity of decision-makers in different aid organizations. The model attempts to handle this complexity by incorporating practical decisions, such as pre-allocation of emergency goods, transportation policy, fleet management and procurement, in an uncertainty environment featured by a scenario-based approach. Preliminary results based on the floods and landslides disaster of the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, point to how to cope with these challenges by using the mathematical model.
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Jill L. Drury, Loretta More, Mark Pfaff, & Gary L. Klein. (2009). A principled method of scenario design for testing emergency response decision-making. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: We are investigating decision aids that present potential courses of action available to emergency responders. To determine whether these aids improve decision quality, however, we first developed test scenarios that were challenging in well-understood ways to ensure testing under the full breadth of representative decision-making situations. We devised a three-step method of developing scenarios: define the decision space, determine the cost components of each decision's potential consequences based on the principles of Robust Decision Making, then choose conflicting pairs of cost components (e.g., a small fire, implying low property damage, in a densely inhabited area, which implies high personal injury). In a validation of this approach, experiment participants made decisions faster in non-ambiguous cases versus cases that included this principled introduction of ambiguity. Our Principled Ambiguity Method of scenario design is also appropriate for other domains as long as they can be analyzed in terms of costs of decision alternatives.
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Edjossan-Sossou, A., Selouane, K., Sayah, M. A., Ouabou, M., Vignote, C., Capitaine, M., et al. (2023). An innovative scenario-based modeling tool for the management of resilient water resources. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 808–821). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: As freshwater availability for domestic and agro-industrial uses is highly sensitive to climate change, there is an urgent need for the management of this critical resource to be resilient, i.e., to cope with and rapidly recover from climate risks. To achieve this resilient goal, decision-makers need to have a comprehensive understanding of (i) the current and future local water resources, (ii) the ways these resources are and will be impacted by climate change, and (iii) the effects their management decisions can have. In this paper, we present an innovative scenario based modeling tool that help decision-makers make the most appropriate decision towards managing water resources: the Resilience Performance Assessment (RPA). This GIS-based decision support tool illustrates the current and future effects of climate change on local water resources and simulates the outcomes of different water resources management strategies. The RPA helps guide decision-makers towards the implementation of context specific adaptation strategies.
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Jacqueline Floch, Michael Angermann, Edel Jennings, & Mark Roddy. (2012). Exploring cooperating smart spaces for efficient collaboration in disaster management. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: This paper discusses the applicability of Cooperating Smart Spaces in the disaster management realm and their potential to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of rescue relief teams. The Cooperating Smart Space is a novel concept that combines and extends pervasive computing and social computing to support smart space management and community collaboration. Based on an analysis of current practice, we illustrate how the concept can be exploited in the assessment of a disaster scenario in order to improve information management, collaboration between expert teams and cooperation with online volunteers outside of the disaster zone. We present the results of an initial user evaluation by disaster management experts and conclude with important implications for the design of a Cooperating Smart Space platform. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Jose Vargas Florez, Anthony Charles, Matthieu Lauras, & Lionel Dupont. (2014). Designing realistic scenarios for disaster management quantitative models. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 180–189). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Disaster Management has received a lot of attention over the last twenty years, and can now be considered a full research area. But a gap exists between research work proposals and their applications on the field. This is particularly true regarding quantitative approaches. One of the main issues is that the scenarios used to design and validate the proposals are often not accurate and/or too simple compared to the complexity of real situations. Designing realistic scenarios is of prime importance to be able to propose relevant quantitative models which could be implemented by practitioners. This paper tackles this problem by proposing a structured methodology which aims at defining realistic disaster scenarios. The case of earthquakes management in Peru is used to illustrate the consistency of our proposal.
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Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, & Alex Lechleuthner. (2015). Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts (L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes, Eds.). Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
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