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Jorge Vargas; Jonatan Rojas; Alejandra Inga; Wilder Mantilla; Hulber Añasco; Melanie Fatsia Basurto; Ricardo Campos; Jonathan Sánchez; Paula Inés Checa Towards Reliable Recurrent Disaster Forecasting Methods: Peruvian Earthquake Case ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis 2016