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	Author	Elisa Canzani
	Title	Modeling Dynamics of Disruptive Events for Impact Analysis in Networked Critical Infrastructures			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2016	Publication	ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management	Abbreviated Journal	ISCRAM 2016
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	Critical Infrastructures; Disruptions; Impact Analysis; Resilience; System Dynamics Modeling
	Abstract	Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) highly determines the societal welfare. If a failed infrastructure is unable to deliver services and products to the others, disruptive effects can cascade into the larger system of CIs. In turn, decision-makers need to understand causal interdependencies and nonlinear feedback behaviors underlying the entire CIs network toward more effective crisis response plans. This paper proposes a novel block building modeling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to capture complex dynamics of CIs disruptions. We develop a SD model and apply it to hypothetical scenarios for simulation-based impact analysis of single and multiple disruptive events. With a special focus on temporal aspects of system resilience, we also demonstrate how the model can be used for dynamic resilience assessment. The model supports crisis managers in understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting their impacts to improve strategic planning in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP).
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher	Federal University of Rio de Janeiro	Place of Publication	Rio de Janeiro, Brasil	Editor	A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto
	Language	English	Summary Language	English	Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	2411-3406	ISBN	978-84-608-7984-27	Medium
	Track	Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis	Expedition		Conference	13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number				Serial	1437
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	Author	Elisa Canzani; Ulrike Lechner
	Title	Insights from Modeling Epidemics of Infectious Diseases ? A Literature Review			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2015	Publication	ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management	Abbreviated Journal	ISCRAM 2015
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	crisis modeling; dynamics; Epidemics modeling; infectious diseases
	Abstract	The relevance of modeling epidemics? spread goes beyond the academic. The mathematical understanding of infectious diseases has become an important tool in policy making. Our research interest is modeling of dynamics in crisis situations. This paper explores the extant body of literature of mathematical models in epidemiology, with particular emphasis on theories and methodologies used beyond them. Our goal is to identify core building blocks of models and research patterns to model the dynamics of crisis situations such as epidemics. The wide range of applications of epidemic models to many other disciplines that show biological analogies, makes this paper helpful for many modelers and mathematicians within the broader field of Crisis Management.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher	University of Agder (UiA)	Place of Publication	Kristiansand, Norway	Editor	L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
	Language	English	Summary Language	English	Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	2411-3387	ISBN	9788271177881	Medium
	Track	Researching Crisis: Methodologies	Expedition		Conference	ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
	Notes				Approved	yes
	Call Number				Serial	1250
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