|
Martin Hilljegerdes, & Ellen-Wien Augustijn-Beckers. (2019). Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The Caribbean island of Dominica is at constant risk of being hit by tropical storms during the hurricane season.
Therefore, Dominica and areas in similar situations need to raise their resilience to natural hazards. The potential
consequences of climate change intensify this risk. After a hurricane hit, repair of damage to buildings and
infrastructure can take several months. As hurricane frequency is increasing and time between hurricanes
fluctuates, modeling sequences of hurricane events can help to determine different evacuation strategies. This
paper introduces an agent-based model, simulating two hurricane events in one season. The prototype simulates
the movement of evacuees over a road network and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Initial results show
marked differences between road movements of evacuees during a second evacuation. Although shifts in the
average shelter occupation are small (up to 2%) for our case study, this can indicate that adjustments to shelter
capacities are necessary.
|
|