|
Beth Veinott, Gary L. Klein, & Sterling Wiggins. (2010). Evaluating the effectiveness of the PreMortem technique on plan confidence. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: One problem affecting crisis management planning teams is overconfidence- An inflated belief that a plan will be successful. In this paper we compared the effect of several different methods for reducing individual team member confidence levels and compared each to a baseline control condition. One hundred and seventy-eight people participated in one of five conditions to evaluate an H1N1 flu epidemic plan in a university context. Over the course of evaluating the plan, participants provided several ratings of confidence in the plan's success and their understanding. We compared several techniques commonly used, such as critique, Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and a newer technique, PreMortem, to a baseline condition. The Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and the PreMortem technique all reliably reduced confidence levels more than baseline condition. Furthermore, the Premortem method, imagining that a plan has failed and then generating reasons to explain why, reliably reduced confidence more than each of the other conditions, and therefore can be a useful tool for combating overconfidence in crisis management planning. We discuss the results in the context of sensemaking and decision making theory.
|
|
|
Nuwan Waidyanatha, Tharaka Wilfred, Kasun Perera, Manoj Silva, & Brenda Burell. (2012). Complexity and usability of voice-enabled alerting and situational reporting decoupled systems. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Telephone calls are the predominant telecommunication mode in Sri Lanka. Leveraging voice-based applications for disaster communication would be acceptable and sustainable. The findings in this paper are from an experiment concerning interactive voice for connecting community-based emergency field operatives with their central coordination hub. Challenge was in interchanging the Freedom Fone (FF) Interactive Voice Response (IVR) generated, Sinhala and Tamil language, speech data with the text-based 'Sahana' disaster management system for analysis and decision support. Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) interoperable content standard was adopted for mediation. Low quality voice data resulting in incomplete information was a barrier to automating transformations between text and speech. Replacing those processes with human procedure significantly degrades the reliability. Moreover, human interaction with decoupled software systems, to accomplish the sequence of tasks, points to instabilities. This paper discusses the complexities and usability shortcomings discovered through controlled-exercises in Sri Lanka. © 2012 ISCRAM.
|
|
|
Rebecca Walton, Robin E. Mays, & Mark P. Haselkorn. (2011). Defining fast: Factors affecting the experience of speed in humanitarian logistics. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Speed is a central value for emergency logistics stakeholders. Emergency response literature makes a compelling case for rapid logistics processes to provide goods and services in humanitarian emergencies. However, speed is not well-defined concept. While situational demand contributes to the need for speed, an important factor is the perception of speed given the experience of the response stakeholders. Unfortunately, the literature lacks complex, situated pictures of how logistics stakeholders experience speed (i.e., what does it mean for a logistics process to be “fast”? What factors affect whether stakeholders perceive a logistics experience as fast?) To address this gap, we explored how logistics stakeholders in a large international humanitarian organization experience and perceive speed of operations. Our findings suggest that (1) the experience of speed is often comparative, not solely objective; (2) close communication between internal clients (field requestors) and service providers (logistics team) can make clients more likely to experience the logistics process as fast; and (3) feeling in control of decision-making can make both clients and service providers more likely to experience the logistics process as fast.
|
|
|
Wang, D. (2023). Public Cognition and Perception on Social Media in Crisis. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 1081–1082). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Microblogging platforms have been increasingly used in crisis, facilitating more participatory communication between official response channels and affected communities. Despite the potential benefits, research has shown that disaster response organizations could not effectively utilize social media data due to data deluge (Knox 2022). To better understand the information needed for disaster response, we turn to the National Incident Management System Guidance for public information officers (PIOs) (NIMS Basic Guidance for PIOs 2020), the primary spokesperson for emergency management organizations. The guidance indicates that PIOs use social media for two major purposes, supporting their operational needs and gauging public perception of risk and incident response. To support the operational needs, the crisis informatics literature has heavily focused on information types supporting situational awareness, including serviceable, eyewitness or actionable information. However, the information representing public perception, such as peoples cognitive and perceptual processes in response to incidents, has been less addressed at scale. To bridge the gap between quantitative study in crisis informatics and information representing cognitive and perceptual processes and better support the task of PIOs, I focus on the study of peoples cognitive and perceptual processes on social media for my research. Cognitive and perceptual processes refer to the way that people pay attention to or process environmental inputs, including the mental activities of acquisition, processing or evaluation of environmental cues, social cues, and warnings. These processes reveal peoples perception of- and decision-making in response to potential threats. With this focus, I seek to answer the following research question: How could peoples cognitive and perceptual processes be inferred from their social media activities in crisis to benefit stakeholders in incident response? My interest in tracing this overall theme through a varied range of sub-tasks produces three more specific research questions: RQ1. How can information exposure and attention be operationalized to highlight cognitive and perceptual processes? RQ2. How do peoples perception of risk communications from stakeholders vary in crisis? RQ3. How could a principled and scalable pipeline be designed to identify peoples cognitive and affective perceptions on Twitter? I took cues from the Protective Action Decision Model (Lindell and Perry 2012) and leveraged baselines in the literature to address these research questions. To address the first research question, I proposed a metric that conceptualized and operationalized the predecision process. The proposed metric was incorporated into a pipeline and applied to two real-word events to recommend messages that represent the shift of collective attention of those locally affected with a specialized focus on cognitive and perceptual processes. To address the second research question, I went beyond the perception of risks to include perceptions of risk communications by stakeholders. I performed an empirical study of the relation between risk communications by stakeholders and different kinds of public perceptions (Lindell and Perry 2012). To address the third research question, I proposed a future work to provide benchmark coding schemes, datasets and models to quantitatively identify information representing cognitive and perceptual processes. I will leverage existing benchmark datasets in the literature (Olteanu et al. 2014; Imran et al. 2016; Alam et al. 2018; Zahra et al. 2020; Rudra et al. 2017; Mazloom et al. 2018; Purohit et al. 2018) and coding schemes in qualitative studies (Trumbo et al. 2016; Demuth et al. 2018) and create benchmark classification models.
|
|
|
Wang, D., & Kogan, M. (2023). Resonance+: Augmenting Collective Attention to Find Information on Public Cognition and Perception of Risk. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 487–500). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Microblogging platforms have been increasingly used by the public and crisis managers in crisis. The increasing volume of data has made such platforms more difficult for officials to find on-the-ground information and understand the publics perception of the evolving risks. The crisis informatics literature has proposed various technological solutions to find relevant information from social media. However, the cognitive processes of the affected population and their subsequent responses, such as perceptions, emotional and behavioral responses, are still under-examined at scale. Yet, such information is important for gauging public perception of risks, an important task for PIOs and emergency managers. In this work, we leverage the noise-cutting power of collective attention and take cues from the Protective Action Decision Model, to propose a method that estimates shifts in collective attention with a special focus on the cognitive processes of those affected and their subsequent responses.
|
|
|
Kui Wang, Jose Marti, Ming Bai, & K.D. Srivastava. (2012). Optimal decision maker algorithm for disaster response management with I2Sim applications. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Disaster response management has become an important area of research in recent years, with authorities spending more resources in the area. Infrastructure resource interdependencies are key critical points for a system to operate optimally. After a disaster occurs, infrastructures would have sustained certain degrees of damage, the allocation of limited resources to maximize human survival becomes a top priority. The I2Sim (Infrastructures Interdependencies Simulator) research group at the University of British Columbia (UBC) has developed a software simulation toolbox to help authorities plan for disaster responses. This paper presents an optimization decision algorithm based on Lagrange multipliers, which provides the theoretical basis for I2Sim software decision maker layer. There is a simple scenario of three hospitals constructed with the I2Sim toolbox to illustrate the interdependencies of water and electricity. © 2012 ISCRAM.
|
|
|
Steven C. Way, & Yufei Yuan. (2012). Towards a context-aware multi-party emergency coordination system framework. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: A framework for an emergency response system is proposed which is an extension of, but significantly different from, traditional group and distributed group support systems. The framework considers the environmental, organizational, and activity-based issues of emergency response for responders and decision makers. These issues are addressed by incorporating context-aware, multi-agency relationship management, and multiparty coordination components into the framework for a context-aware multiparty coordination system. © 2012 ISCRAM.
|
|
|
Felix Wex, Guido Schryen, & Dirk Neumann. (2011). Intelligent decision support for centralized coordination during Emergency Response. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Automated coordination is regarded as a novel approaches in Emergency Response Systems (ERS), and especially resource allocation has been understudied in former research. The contribution of this paper is the introduction of two variants of a novel resource allocation mechanism that provide decision support to the centralized Emergency Operations Center (EOC). Two quantitative models are computationally validated using real-time, data-driven, Monte-Carlo simulations promoting reliable propositions of distributed resource allocations and schedules. Various requirements are derived through a literature analysis. Comparative analyses attest that the Monte-Carlo approach outperforms a well-defined benchmark.
|
|
|
Felix Wex, Guido Schryen, & Dirk Neumann. (2012). Operational emergency response under informational uncertainty: A fuzzy optimization model for scheduling and allocating rescue units. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Coordination deficiencies have been identified after the March 2011 earthquakes in Japan in terms of scheduling and allocation of resources, with time pressure, resource shortages, and especially informational uncertainty being main challenges. We suggest a decision support model that accounts for these challenges by drawing on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy optimization. Based on requirements from practice and the findings of our literature review, the decision model considers the following premises: incidents and rescue units are spatially distributed, rescue units possess specific capabilities, processing is non-preemptive, and informational uncertainty through linguistic assessments is predominant when on-site units vaguely report about incidents and their attributes, or system reports are not exact. We also suggest a Monte Carlo-based heuristic solution procedure and conduct a computational evaluation of different scenarios. We benchmark the results of our heuristic with results yielded through applying a greedy approach. The results indicate that using our Monte Carlo simulation to solve the decision support model inspired by fuzzy set theory can substantially reduce the overall harm. © 2012 ISCRAM.
|
|
|
Connie White, Murray Turoff, & Bartel A. Van De Walle. (2007). A dynamic delphi process utilizing a modified thurstone scaling method: Collaborative judgement in emergency response. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 7–15). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In an extreme event or major disaster, very often there are both alternative actions that might be considered and far more requests for actions than can be executed immediately. The relative desirability of each option for action could be a collaborative expression of a significant number of emergency managers and experts trying to manage the most desirable alternatives at any given time, in real time. Delphi characteristics can satisfy these needs given that anyone can vote or change their vote on any two options, and voting and scaling are used to promote a group understanding. Further utilized with Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment, a group decision or the range of acceptability a group is willing to consent to, can be calculated and utilized as a means of producing the best decision. A ubiquitous system for expeditious real-time decision making by large virtual teams in emergency response environments is described.
|
|
|
Connie White, Murray Turoff, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2010). A real time online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis management support during extreme events. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The Delphi Decision Maker system has been designed to support the decision making needs of crisis managers, considering factors such as stress, time pressure, information overload, and uncertainty. It has been built as a module for the Sahana Disaster Management system, a free and open source system. The Design Science research paradigm was used in an iterative development process. Triangulation was employed in the evaluation, analyzing the system against the research questions using both qualitative and quantitative statistics as well as proof of concept. Modifications need to be made for real world use. A second version of the system is under development. Research findings and future research are outlined in this work in progress.
|
|
|
Gerhard Wickler, George Beckett, Liangxiu Han, Sung Han Koo, Stephen Potter, Gavin Pringle, et al. (2009). Using simulation for decision support: Lessons learned from FireGrid. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper describes some of the lessons learned from the FireGrid project. It starts with a brief overview of the project. The discussion of the lessons learned that follows is intended for others attempting to develop a similar system, where sensor data is used to steer a super-real time simulation in order to generate predictions that will provide decision support for emergency responders.
|
|
|
Adam Widera, Hanns-Alexander Dietrich, Bernd Hellingrath, & Jörg Becker. (2013). Understanding humanitarian supply chains – Developing an integrated process analysis toolkit. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 210–219). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: In this paper we present the development of an integrated process analysis toolkit for humanitarian logistics. The toolkit integrates a conceptual and a technological component. Our approach follows a case study-based modeling and design approach. The developed concept was evaluated in two humanitarian organizations. Based on these results we extended and integrated the tool-supported process analysis approach, which is ready to use for the structural and quantitative analysis of humanitarian logistics processes. The toolkit can be applied in humanitarian organizations as a decision support tool for designing, planning and executing their logistics processes. Thus, the application affects the preparedness of humanitarian organizations as well as their response performance. The process analysis toolkit is embedded in an overall research agenda with the objective to provide humanitarian organizations with the capabilities to identify, monitor, and improve their logistics processes respecting the organization specific objectives.
|
|
|
Duncan T. Wilson, Glenn I. Hawe, Graham Coates, & Roger S. Crouch. (2012). Estimating the value of casualty health information to optimization-based decision support in response to major incidents. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: In this paper we describe a work-in-progress decision support program designed for use in the response to major incidents in the UK. The proposed program is designed for use in a continuous fashion, where the updating of its model, the search for solutions to the model through an optimization algorithm, and the issuing of these solutions are carried out concurrently. The model facilitates the inclusion of dynamic and uncertain features of emergency response. The potential of such an approach to deliver high-quality response plans through enabling more accurate modeling is evaluated through focusing on the case of casualty health information. Computational experiments show there is significant value in monitoring the dynamic and uncertain health progression of casualties and updating the model accordingly. © 2012 ISCRAM.
|
|
|
Duncan T. Wilson, Glenn I. Hawe, Graham Coates, & Roger S. Crouch. (2013). Scheduling response operations under transport network disruptions. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 683–687). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Modeling the complex decision problems faced in the coordination of disaster response as a scheduling problem to be solved using an optimization algorithm has the potential to deliver efficient and effective support to decision makers. However, much of the utility of such a model lies in its ability to accurately predict the outcome of any proposed solution. The stochastic nature of the disaster response environment can make such prediction difficult. In this paper we examine the effect of unknown disruptions to the road transport network on the utility of a disaster response scheduling model. The effects of several levels of disruption are measured empirically and the potential of using real-time information to revise model parameters, and thereby improve predictive performance, is evaluated.
|
|
|
Rene Windhouwer, Gerdien A. Klunder, & F.M. Sanders. (2005). Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 171–180). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by the DSS Emergency Planning system to estimate the time required employs a strategy that prevents congestion on the road network in the area at risk. The use of the DSS Emergency Planning system during the proactive and prevention phases enables disaster containment organisations to prepare better for a flood situation. Moreover, all relevant information is saved and is therefore available for the post-disaster evaluation. The DSS Emergency Planning system can play a significant role in ensuring that the evacuation of an area at risk goes according to plan. In the future the DSS Emergency Planning system can also be used to evacuate people in the event of a nuclear, natural fire or extreme weather disaster.
|
|
|
Simone Wurster, & Ulrich Meissen. (2014). Towards an economic assessment approach for early warning systems: Improving cost-avoidance calculations with regard to private households. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 439–443). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS) have proven their value by saving many lives. However, most in-vestments into EWS were motivated directly by experienced disaster events and rarely pro-actively by possible up-coming threats. In order to change that we think that besides ethical and humanitarian reasons also the positive economic effects should be analyzed. EWS also help to protect property, but their contribution is not as obvious in that field due to the lack of quantitative models. This paper presents a disaster-independent formula that shows the benefits of EWS. Additional value to existing approaches is based on its advanced focus on behavioral aspects and the benefits of EWS in comparison to warnings issued via social media. We consider this work as an important contribution for future investments into warning technologies. However, yet this model just provides a theoretical framework for necessary empirical studies that are subject of further research.
|
|
|
Yaniv Mordecai, & Boris Kantsepolsky. (2018). Intelligent Utilization of Dashboards in Emergency Management. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1108–1119). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Effective decision-supporting visualization is critical for strategic, tactic, and operational management before and during a large-scale climate or extreme weather emergency. Most emergency management applications traditionally consist of map-based event and object visualization and management, which is necessary for operations, but has small contribution to decision makers. At the same time, analytical models and simulations that usually enable prediction and situation evaluation are often analyst-oriented and detached from the operational command and control system. Nevertheless, emergencies tend to generate unpredictable effects, which may require new decision-support tools in real-time, based on alternative data sources or data streams. In this paper, we advocate the use of dashboards for emergency management, but more importantly, we propose an intelligent mechanism to support effective and efficient utilization of data and information for decision-making via flexible deployment and visualization of data streams and metric displays. We employ this framework in the H2020 beAWARE project that aims to develop and demonstrate an innovative framework for enhanced decision support and management services in extreme weather climate events.
|
|
|
Xiang Yao, & Murray Turoff. (2007). Using task structure to improve Collaborative Scenario Creation. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 591–594). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper provides a task structure design for collaborative scenario elicitation. Task structure design is part of this effort to design a new Collaborative Scenario Creation (CSC) system. The complexity of the scenario creation process hinders participants, especially novice participants, from prudently designing scenarios. Research in Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) shows that task structure helps to improve processes and collaborations. To design task structure for collaborative scenario elicitation, this paper invokes the Entity-Relationship data modeling methodology.
|
|
|
Xiang Yao, Murray Turoff, & Michael J. Chumer. (2009). Designing a group support system to review and practice emergency plans in virtual teams. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In the 21st century, rapid changes of our society necessitate continuous review and practice of emergency plans. Traditional face-to-face (FtF) interactions to make emergency plans and train responders seem insufficient. The virtual team (VT), a new team form allowing dynamic recruitment of experts from global extent and conduction of teamwork whenever it is needed, provides a more agile solution. This paper introduces a group support system called Collario (Collaborative Scenario) aiming to facilitate effective collaboration in creating and discussing scenarios in VTs and to utilize scenarios as the vehicle to review and practice emergency plans on a continuous basis. This research is still in progress. Three professionals have been involved in system demonstrations and interviews. Although it is still too early to make any conclusions, it is encouraging to know that all the three experts thought Collario easy to use and might be useful for various emergency preparedness purposes.
|
|
|
Yaping Ma, Hui Zhang, Tao Chen, & Rui Yang. (2015). Decentralized Evacuation System Based on Occupants Distribution and Building Information. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Effective evacuation is critical for safety of occupants. The exiting evacuation systems lack flexibility and don?t consider the distribution of occupants. It is possible to direct occupants to danger areas or cause congestion in certain areas. In this paper, a decentralized evacuation system is proposed to compute the safest path in real time. The system is composed of fire detection sensors, zone controllers, elevator sensors, human tracking and monitoring systems and dynamic egress signs. All devices are placed at the predetermined locations based on integrated design of the building. The entire building is divided into many basic zones which are operating quite independently, and global information is communicated to neighboring zones and consequently to entire network by zone controllers. The system acts in decentralized fashion. The elevator and dynamic factors are considered in guidance system. Simulations are performed to determine the advantage of the system.
|
|
|
Yikun Liu, Sung Pil Moon, Mark Pfaff, Jill L. Drury, & Gary L. Klein. (2011). Collaborative option awareness for emergency response decision making. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: We have been using exploratory modeling to forecast multiple plausible outcomes for a set of decision options situated in the emergency response domain. Results were displayed as a set of box-plots illustrating outcome frequencies distributed across an evaluative dimension (e.g., cost, score, or utility). Our previous research showed that such displays provide what we termed “option awareness” – an ability to determine robust options that will have good outcomes across the broadest number of plausible futures. This paper describes an investigation into extending this approach to collaborative decision making by providing a visualization of both collaborative and individual decision spaces. We believe that providing such visualizations will be particularly important when each individuals decision space does not account for the synergy that may emerge from collaboration. We describe how providing collaborative decision spaces improves the robustness of joint decisions and engenders high confidence in these decisions.
|
|
|
Yiting Zheng, Jianguo Chen, Wenjie Tang, & Jiaxiang Xu. (2016). Research on Target Diversity and Risk Analysis Model of Terrorist Attack. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Terrorist attack continues to spread in the world which leads to severe casualties and property losses and poses great pressure to the government. Therefore it is essential to identify the potential targets terrorists may select, assess the risk level and take risk management measures in advance. Aiming to this problem, the paper provides a new analysis method. Firstly it investigates target types terrorists prefer to and target diversity based on the data in Global Terrorist Database ; Then it puts forward the target risk analysis of three-dimensional model which considers the threat probabilityã?the target vulnerability and the consequence severity; Finally, the paper calculates and assesses the risk level using the fuzzy synthesis decision-making method, and two examples are given to prove the feasibility of the model. The result can contribute to target risk analysis and emergency preparedness or management of terrorist attack.
|
|
|
Zhenyu Yu, Chuanfeng Han, & Ma Ma. (2014). Emergency decision making: A dynamic approach. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 240–244). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: The dynamic nature of emergency decision making exerts difficulty to decision makers for achieving effective management. In this regard, we suggest a dynamic decision making model based on Markov decision process. Our model copes with the dynamic decision problems quantitatively and computationally, and has powerful expression ability to model the emergency decision problems. We use a wildfire scenario to demonstrate the implementation of the model, as well as the solution to the firefighting problem. The advantages of our model in emergency management domain are discussed and concluded in the last.
|
|
|
Shengcheng Yuan, Ma Ma, H. Zhang, & Yi Liu. (2013). An urban traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 317–321). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Traffic evacuation is one of the most challenging problems in a mega city due to crowded road conditions. This study focuses on developing a traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. The model basically consists of two modules. The first one is a decision-making support module which runs very fast and provides short-forecast. The second one is a simulation module, which is used for simulating real evacuation process and for overall performance evaluation with vehicle tracking model. The first module can be considered as a “local” module as only partial information, such as traffic information in certain junctions is available. The second module can be considered as a global module which provides traffic directions for junction, and effective using of road-nets. With integration of two modules, overall system optimization may be achieved. Simulation cases are given for model validation and results are satisfied.
|
|