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Author |
Max Wyss |
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Title |
The kashmir M7.6 shock of 8 october 2005 calibrates estimates of losses in future himalayan earthquakes |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2006 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2006 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
397-401 |
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Keywords |
Information systems; Correction factors; Energy release; Kashmir earthquake; Large earthquakes; Loss estimates; Moment tensor solutions; Scenario earthquakes; Seismic risk; Earthquakes |
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Abstract |
In an article published in March 2005, we estimated the number of fatalities to be expected in future large earthquakes in the Himalaya (Wyss, 2005). For the scenario called Kashmir, we estimated that 67,000 to 137,000 fatalities should be expected. The M7.6 Kashmir earthquake of 8 October 2005 caused approximately 85,000 fatalities. Thus, one may argue that we forecast this disaster well. However, we assumed M8.1, a depth of 25 km and an epicenter located about 200 km to the SE from the October epicenter. Using the moment tensor solution for the October earthquake with a depth of 12 km for the energy release, we estimate the number of fatalities between 29,000 and 56,000. Thus, a factor of 2 must be applied to obtain the observed number, and the depth of the energy release in the scenario earthquakes should be placed at 12 km, which results in on over-All correction factor of 2.4. Therefore, we correct our estimates for numbers of fatalities in future Himalayan earthquake to range from 100,000 to 500,000, as specified for the locations given in Table 2. |
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Address |
World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, 2 rue de Jargonnant, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland |
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Publisher |
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium |
Place of Publication |
Newark, NJ |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, M. Turoff |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9090206019; 9789090206011 |
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Track |
REAL-TIME ALERTS FOR EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMI |
Expedition |
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Conference |
3rd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
1109 |
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Author |
Max Wyss |
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Title |
Earthquake loss estimates applied in real time and to megacity risk assessment |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2005 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2005 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
297-299 |
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Keywords |
Developing countries; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Human resource management; Information systems; Risk assessment; Earthquake risk; Global community; International rescue; Loss estimates; Major disasters; Organizational aspects; Real-time loss; Satellite images; Earthquakes |
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Abstract |
Real time loss estimates within one to two hours after major earthquakes are becoming useful for disaster managers and rescue teams to respond rapidly and at an optimal level. Tests show that the accuracy is low, but major disasters can be reliably distinguished from inconsequential earthquakes. Many technical and organizational aspects of these estimates can and should be improved. An analysis of what magnitude of disaster is likely to occur, if a major earthquake should occur near a megacity in a developing country shows that much work needs to be done to mitigate the risk, and that the global community is ill prepared to deal with such large disasters. |
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Address |
World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium |
Place of Publication |
Brussels |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, B. Carle |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9076971099 |
Medium |
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Track |
EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE: SPECIAL SESSION |
Expedition |
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Conference |
2nd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
1110 |
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