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Jorge Vargas; Jonatan Rojas; Alejandra Inga; Wilder Mantilla; Hulber Añasco; Melanie Fatsia Basurto; Ricardo Campos; Jonathan Sánchez; Paula Inés Checa | ||||
| Title | Towards Reliable Recurrent Disaster Forecasting Methods: Peruvian Earthquake Case | Type | Conference Article | ||
| Year | 2016 | Publication | ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management | Abbreviated Journal | ISCRAM 2016 |
| Volume | Issue | Pages | |||
| Keywords | Recurrent Disasters; Forecast; Earthquake; Frost; El Niño | ||||
| Abstract | We are interested in recurrent disaster forecasts; these are events such as annual cyclones in the Caribbean, earthquakes along the Ring of Fire and so on. These crises, even small- or medium-sized, are, in fact, critical for the emergency response of humanitarian organizations inasmuch as the sum of casualties and losses attained are as deadly as those that are considered exceptional. The aim of our research is to show that it is possible to use traditional forecasting methods such as: causal methods (which include the use of linear regression functions, non-linear, multivariate, etc.), time series (which include simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, etc.) and so on, if the historical data keeps, among other criteria, its patterns, frequency, and magnitude, in a sustainable manner. Finally, an example to forecast recurrent earthquakes in Peru is presented. | ||||
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| Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
| Publisher | Federal University of Rio de Janeiro | Place of Publication | Rio de Janeiro, Brasil | Editor | A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto |
| Language | English | Summary Language | English | Original Title | |
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | 2411-3414 | ISBN | 978-84-608-7984-35 | Medium | |
| Track | Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis | Expedition | Conference | 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management | |
| Notes | Approved | no | |||
| Call Number | Serial | 1354 | |||
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