Records |
Author |
Simon French; Carmen Niculae |
Title |
Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2004 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2004 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
9-14 |
Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Civil aviation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk management; Crisis management; Cynefin; Decision support system (dss); Emergency management; Model prediction; Uncertainty; Economic and social effects |
Abstract |
During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004. |
Address |
Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB, United Kingdom |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
|
Publisher |
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium |
Place of Publication |
Brussels |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, B. Carle |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
|
ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9076971080 |
Medium |
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Track |
Conference Keynote |
Expedition |
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Conference |
1st International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
|
Serial |
111 |
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Author |
Toshihisa Toyoda |
Title |
Economic impacts of Kobe Earthquake: A quantitative evaluation after 13 years |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2008 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2008 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
606-617 |
Keywords |
Civil aviation; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Earthquakes; Information systems; Manufacture; Commercial sector; Conceptual frameworks; Disaster management; Economic impacts; Gross regional products; Manufacturing sector; Quantitative evaluation; Services sectors; Economic and social effects |
Abstract |
The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. In order to estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect losses is presented. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. As for indirect flow losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. A careful statistical analysis of indirect losses using the gross regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for longer than 10 years, mounting to some 14 trillion yen (about US$0.13 trillion). Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses. |
Address |
Hiroshima Shudo University, Japan |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Washington, DC |
Editor |
F. Fiedrich, B. Van de Walle |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780615206974 |
Medium |
|
Track |
Impact of Disasters on Industry and Economic Effects |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
5th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
1014 |
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