Marcel Van Berlo, Richelle Van Rijk, & Eric F. T. Buiël. (2005). A PC-based virtual environment for training team decision-making in high-risk situations. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 195–200). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Live team training of firefighters has several disadvantages. Firstly, it is costly because many team members and training staff are involved. Secondly, not all team members have the same competency level, and some individuals may just not be ready to train in a team context. Thirdly, live training in high-risk situations is difficult and dangerous. Consequently, critical situations can not be trained adequately. Following a scenario-based and a rapid prototyping approach, we are designing and developing a pc-based virtual training environment to train individual firefighters in making decisions in a team context operating in high-risk situations. This individual training program can better prepare the firefighters for live training, enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of these team-training exercises. In this paper we describe the training-method, we outline how this is technologically implemented and discuss how we are planning to test the prototype.
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Beth Veinott, Gary L. Klein, & Sterling Wiggins. (2010). Evaluating the effectiveness of the PreMortem technique on plan confidence. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: One problem affecting crisis management planning teams is overconfidence- An inflated belief that a plan will be successful. In this paper we compared the effect of several different methods for reducing individual team member confidence levels and compared each to a baseline control condition. One hundred and seventy-eight people participated in one of five conditions to evaluate an H1N1 flu epidemic plan in a university context. Over the course of evaluating the plan, participants provided several ratings of confidence in the plan's success and their understanding. We compared several techniques commonly used, such as critique, Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and a newer technique, PreMortem, to a baseline condition. The Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and the PreMortem technique all reliably reduced confidence levels more than baseline condition. Furthermore, the Premortem method, imagining that a plan has failed and then generating reasons to explain why, reliably reduced confidence more than each of the other conditions, and therefore can be a useful tool for combating overconfidence in crisis management planning. We discuss the results in the context of sensemaking and decision making theory.
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Yikun Liu, Sung Pil Moon, Mark Pfaff, Jill L. Drury, & Gary L. Klein. (2011). Collaborative option awareness for emergency response decision making. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: We have been using exploratory modeling to forecast multiple plausible outcomes for a set of decision options situated in the emergency response domain. Results were displayed as a set of box-plots illustrating outcome frequencies distributed across an evaluative dimension (e.g., cost, score, or utility). Our previous research showed that such displays provide what we termed “option awareness” – an ability to determine robust options that will have good outcomes across the broadest number of plausible futures. This paper describes an investigation into extending this approach to collaborative decision making by providing a visualization of both collaborative and individual decision spaces. We believe that providing such visualizations will be particularly important when each individuals decision space does not account for the synergy that may emerge from collaboration. We describe how providing collaborative decision spaces improves the robustness of joint decisions and engenders high confidence in these decisions.
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Yiting Zheng, Jianguo Chen, Wenjie Tang, & Jiaxiang Xu. (2016). Research on Target Diversity and Risk Analysis Model of Terrorist Attack. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Terrorist attack continues to spread in the world which leads to severe casualties and property losses and poses great pressure to the government. Therefore it is essential to identify the potential targets terrorists may select, assess the risk level and take risk management measures in advance. Aiming to this problem, the paper provides a new analysis method. Firstly it investigates target types terrorists prefer to and target diversity based on the data in Global Terrorist Database ; Then it puts forward the target risk analysis of three-dimensional model which considers the threat probabilityã?the target vulnerability and the consequence severity; Finally, the paper calculates and assesses the risk level using the fuzzy synthesis decision-making method, and two examples are given to prove the feasibility of the model. The result can contribute to target risk analysis and emergency preparedness or management of terrorist attack.
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